Preview

Course Info

Course Designer: Alister MacKenzie
Tournament last played here: 2020
Type of Course: Long with fast greens
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: In play on five holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 13th, 15th
Premium on: Approach play

The Basics

Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament.  It was originally designed by Alister MacKenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000's under the guidance of Tom Fazio.  Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player. 

A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left hander) is favoured given it offers a huge advantage on holes 2, 10, 13 and 14.  Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.

2020 Recap

Given it was played in November for the first time ever, we should treat last year's event with considerable caution.  The course was wet from heavy rain prior to the tournament and greens were much more receptive to approach shots than we usually see in April.

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

The conditions in 2020 were somewhat different so treat these results with caution.

Weather

We are in for a mixed forecast this week with weather interruptions possible on Friday and Saturday.  

Thursday: Sunny all day with max wind speed of 8mph.
Friday: Possibility of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. Max wind of 8mph.
Saturday: Possibility of thunderstorms later in the day. Max wind of 7mph.
Sunday: Sunny with potential for light rain shower around noon. Max wind of 9mph.

Trends

Winning Score
The last twelve Masters tournaments have seen winning scores range from -5 to -20.

Correlating Courses
Riviera CC, home of the Genesis Invitational, correlates nicely with Augusta.

Event Form
Eight of the last twelve winners had posted a top 10 at Augusta prior to winning.  Course form is essential.

Recent Form
Counts for a lot at the Masters, 11 of the past 12 champions had recorded a top 30 finish in their two events prior to winning.

Nationality
Americans have won seven of the past 12 but we've seen a range of nationalities succeed.

Age
Eleven of the last twelve winners were under 40. The exception? Tiger Woods.

Defending Champion
In the past ten years, only two defending champions (Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott) have posted a top 25 finish.  Spieth is the only player to have posted a top 10 when defending champion in the past ten years.

Major Virgins
Seven of the past 12 players to don the Green Jacket were claiming their first Major.  However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America. Only two winners from the past 12 did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.

Masters Exposure
Only two players in the last 41 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year.  They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations.  It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.

Debutants
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn."  Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.  Experience counts for a lot round Augusta.  However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent.  Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1, and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. 

World Ranking
Twelve of the past 13 champions have ranked inside the top 30 at the time of winning.  Don't look too far for a winner.

Thursday Tee Time
“If there’s a golf course in heaven, I hope it’s like Augusta National. I just don’t want an early tee time.”  Gary Player
It's well known that to have a chance of winning the coveted green jacket you need to be in the final groups out on Sunday.  However, it is less well known that in recent years a late first round tee time has been equally as important at Augusta.

Seven of the last nine winners at Augusta teed off in the final six groups on Thursday.  Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed won in 2019 and 2018 having not played in the final six groups but the players who finished in 2nd place those years all teed off in the final 6 groups on Thursday. 

Stats Analysis

We don't get SG stats from Augusta so we look at traditional stats.

Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 6-44-6-6-32-52 (most recent first).

Driving Accuracy
Tiger Woods in 2019 was the only player to rank outside the top 30 for Driving Accuracy in the last six years.

SG: Approach
Data from 15^th Club (15thclub.com) indicates that winners here have excellent SG: Approach stats.  Rankings of winners from 2019 to 2015 were 1-3-2-1-1. 

Greens In Regulation
Only Dustin Johnson (13th) and Patrick Reed (21st) have finished outside the top 10 for Greens In Regulation in the past six years.

Putts per GIR
Every winner in the last six years has ranked inside the top 20.

In Play

Tough Holes
In 2019 the lengthened 5th was the hardest on the course.  The first three holes of the back nine also regularly rank amongst the hardest. 
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Birdie Holes
The four par 5s score the four easiest every year and it is vital to play these well.

Closing Stretch
The 18^th ranks as the fourth hardest hole on the course but the 16^th and 17^th are birdie opportunities.

Fast or Slow Start
Augusta is not a course to play catch up so a good start is vital.  Every winner in the past 10 years has been inside the top 11 after round one.  The position of the last 10 winners after round 1 was: 1-11-4-4-9-1-2-10-4-7 (most recent first).

The last 31 winners have been inside the Top-5 going into the final round.  Even then, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 21 of the last 24 winners have been within 2 going into the final round.

In-play

The Masters In-Play Blog

11 April 2021, 12.25pm

Hideki Matsuyama has turned a three shot deficit into a four shot lead with a stunning 65. When lots of players failed to adjust in the change of conditions after the weather delay, Hideki started turning the screw around Amen Corner, birdieing 11 and 12. He could even afford a three putt par on 13 before finishing eagle-birdie-birdie-par.

Despite his pedigree, it has been a surprise to many as he has yet to record a top 10 finish in his first ten starts of 2021. It has seemingly all come together for him at the right time and now he's 5/6 to get the job done.

Such is the size of the lead it’s likely he'll do it, but let’s take a look at reasons why he might struggle as we did for Justin Rose earlier in the week.

Firstly pressure. Hideki has long been considered one of the best players never to have won a major and has even more scrutiny due to the Japanese media. Sergio Garcia managed to overcome this hurdle here in 2017 but the burden has been too heavy for many.

Next you have the ‘difficult to back up a low round’ theory. There are many sceptics of this but Justin Rose showed on Friday just how hard it is, especially around here.

What about the conditions? The slower greens definitely helped Hideki yesterday and it will be interesting to see how he copes if they are faster today.

Lastly, Hideki has only rarely been in contention in the last year or so. The 2^nd place finish in Houston came from way off the pace and he let a 54 hole lead slip at the BMW Championship in August 2020. You can see full details of his most recent performances in contention here.

What’s putting us off backing against Hideki is the chasing pack. Xander Schauffele is considered next most likely at 5/1 but he has been extremely poor in the mix recently. Justin Rose is hanging on for dear life with some excellent putting.

Will Zalatoris and Corey Conners are fairly untested at this level but do have the talent. Maybe chasing will suit them perfectly with nothing to lose. Marc Leishman is a threat and if pushed would be considered the best play at 12/1.

A final word about Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas who have let slip great positions to win. Spieth still has a small chance should he get some help from the leader but Thomas's explosion on 13 with a triple bogey out of nowhere was extremely poor - at a time when he was only a couple off the lead.

We’re going to focus on a couple of 2 ball plays we like today and hope for some entertainment in the outright market. Betting aside, no one could begrudge Matsuyama a win.

Sunday's Bets

• 2pts Paul Casey to beat Billy Horschel 20/23 @ William Hill

We're opposing Billy Horschel after he only hit 7/18 greens in regulation. Casey on the other hand his hit more than 60% of greens every day so we're banking on this superior iron play leading to the win.  Casey has a much better record around Augusta also.

• 2pts Louis Oosthuizen to beat Jason Kokrak EVENS @ William Hill

Similarly, Oosthuizen has averaged 68% GIR in comparison to the 61% of Kokrak. He has an excellent record at Augusta which gives him the edge for us, and anything around evens is good value.

Spreadsheet

Weekly Excel Spreadsheet