Preview

Course Info

Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament.  It was originally designed by Bobby Jones and Alistair Mackenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000s under the guidance of Tom Fazio.  Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player. 

A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left handed golfer) is favoured around Augusta given it offers a huge advantage on holes 2, 10 and 13.  Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.
 

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This year The Masters has been moved to November for the first time ever. Please be aware this will change the course conditions. We have seen the effects moving a tournament can have with The Players Championship switching from May to March, so we must factor this into our analysis.

 

The course will play longer as the weather has been wet in recent days. The November weather will also affect those players with injury, particularly back problems.

 

With no fans present the traditional roars heard throughout the course will not be in effect. The event will also utilise a two tee start for rounds one and two. It will be interesting to see if any experienced players are thrown off by these changes.

 

Please continue to be aware of the impact Covid-19 may have, Joaquin Niemann and Sergio Garcia have already withdrawn having tested positive in the past few days.

Trends

With such rich tournament history there a number of trends common to Masters winners. Here are four worth highlighting:

1. A player in the World's Top 50 is the likely winner and chances are he'll be American.
"The course is perfection and asks perfection." Nick Faldo
Since 2012, every Masters winner has been ranked within the world's top 50. Americans also tend to fare slightly better, providing 12 of the past 19 champions.

2. Masters debutants can contend but don't normally win at Augusta.
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn." Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller's win in 1979. Experience counts for a lot round Augusta. However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1 and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. There are two potential superstars teeing it up this year in Morikawa and Wolff, so we may see at least one debutant place in the top 5.

3. Having experience of playing Augusta on Saturday and Sunday the year before.
Only two players in the last 40 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year. They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations. It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.

4. Don't underestimate the importance of major life events to give golfers a new impetus.
Seven of the last nine winners each had a significant life event in the 6 months prior to donning the Green Jacket (see table below). Whether that was the birth of a child, an engagement or marriage, there's a definite performance benefit if you experience the bounce of a major life event. So, who in the world top-50 has had a significant life event in 2020?

Adam Hadwin became a father in January. Sergio Garcia and his wife welcomed their second child (first son) in April. Rory McIlroy became a father in August. Finally, whilst not quite in 2020, it is worth mentioning that Rickie Fowler got married in October 2019 and Jon Rahm married in December 2019.

Of the players outside the top 50, Byeong Hun An became a father for the first time in early 2020. Christiaan Bezuidenhout got engaged in January. Rafa Cabrera Bello and his wife also had a baby girl in August 2019, as did Kevin Na and his wife.

 

Stats Analysis

"If you hit it long and straight and throw it up in the air high and putt well, you'll do well here. That's always been the formula at this golf course." Jack Nicklaus
The old adage says to win at Augusta you must hit it long and high. Whilst winners do tend to be above average, it isn't essential to be the longest on Tour to win here (think Willett, Spieth, Schwartzel etc). That said, the switch to November will see long hitters gain an advantage with the conditions being cooler. It's no surprise Bryson DeChambeau has spent the last few weeks tinkering with longer driver shafts and increasing his swing speed.

"One of the keys to this golf course is to put yourself in those situations where you can be aggressive with your putts" Tiger Woods
Quite simply, to win at Augusta you have to put your ball in the best spot on the green to be able to hole putts. A 10ft uphill put can often be easier than a 5ft downhill putt. Similarly, putting up the slope rather than across it can also be beneficial. It's therefore no surprise that strokes gained approach is the key statistic when it comes to Augusta.

In Play

Augusta has four reachable par 5s for the longest hitters and the shortest of those, the 13th, plays the easiest hole on the course. These holes played as the four easiest holes in 2019.

In 2019 the lengthened 5th hole was the hardest on the course. The first three holes of the back nine also regularly rank amongst the hardest. We should be particularly mindful of the 10th and 11th holes this year. The players normally get a huge bounce on their tee shot at the downhill 10th which sees them play from a flatter lie. If conditions are softer we're likely to see players have longer second shots with the added difficulty of an uneven lie. Similarly, the second shot at the 11th will likely be a longer club given conditions.

The last 30 winners of the Masters have been within the Top-5 going into the final round. Even if you are within the Top-5, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 20 out of the last 23 Masters winners have been within 2 going into the final round.

Six To Watch

Brooks Koepka - 16/1 @ Betfair (10 places)
The front end of the market seems as strong as ever this year and we could make a case for any one of them. However, at odds of 14/1 or less, we don't see the value of siding with the front six in the market given the unpredictable weather forecast and differences in event conditions (two tee start, lack of fans, timing etc). With that said, let's be clear that it would be no shock whatsoever to see a couple of them battling it out for the Green Jacket come Sunday.

Brooks has been priced up at 16/1 and it's enough to get us interested. His recent record in Majors is unparalleled, having won four in quick succession and it arguably could have been more were it not for injuries. Mentally, he's head and shoulders above 91 other players in this field. Only Tiger Woods surpasses him in this department and coming down the stretch he's about as reliable as they come.

You may remember Brooks was written off on the eve of last year's Masters, some commentators questioning his weight loss as a "vanity project." Brooks responded in emphatic fashion by posting an opening 66 at Augusta. He is at his most dangerous when he has a point to prove and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he very much has a point to prove with Bryson DeChambeau emerging on the scene.

He switched back to his old driver last week for the final two rounds and spoke of how he could have won the tournament were it not for using a new driver the first two days. Having that kind of confidence in his driver will be key around a wet Augusta and we saw how he destroyed the par 5s last time he was here (13 under in 2019).

Those of you with a keen eye for stats will point to his poor SG: Approach stats last week as a reason not to back him. On closer inspection a really poor first round where he lost 2.598 shots in this category was the reason. His previous outing at the CJ Cup was a similar story as he lost 0.707 shots in the opening round but bounced back well to finish 14th SG: Approach that week. There's no reason to suggest he can't eradicate that one bad round with the irons this week.

Much has been spoken about his form coming into the event but a 28th place finish at the CJ Cup and a 5th in Houston last week are a vast improvement on his form (56th-56th-MC) prior to the 2019 Masters. Only a resurgent Tiger Woods prevented him from winning then and it's hard to see Tiger doing that again now. Much has been made of the Brooks/Bryson rivalry and whilst Bryson was impressive winning the US Open we know who we'd rather side with this week!

Hideki Matsuyama - 25/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
It's been no surprise to see Hideki tipped up everywhere given his final round performance in Houston last week, and we were very close to thinking 25/1 is too short. However, we can't get away from the fact that he has an excellent chance of being in the mix on Sunday.

Form figures of 2-28-21 coupled with the fact he hasn't finished worse than 32nd at Augusta since 2014, including 7th in 2016 and 5th in 2015, are the obvious sign that everything is in place for him to challenge for the title. It is the stats in the key categories that make him a must back though - SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green and par 5 performance.

Last season, Hideki ranked 5th for SG: Approach and SG: Around the green. This season, although a smaller sample, he ranks 46th and 32nd. He also ranked 10th last season for par 5 scoring average.

Looking more closely at recent events, last week at Houston he finished in the top 16 of every Strokes Gained category and ranked 1st for Par 5 scoring. The week before at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd around the greens which confirms his short game is where it needs to be.

Lastly, he fits the profile of recent first time winners at majors and there aren't many more who deserve it. Begrudgingly, don't miss out on the 25/1!

Collin Morikawa - 30/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (10 places)
Collin was a winner for us pre-event and in-play at the US PGA Championship a couple of months ago and we are shocked to see him at odds of over 40 on the exchange so soon. The fact he is a debutant is offputting to many and understandably so given the lack of success they have had. He is also deemed 'out of form,' with figures of 50-12-MC-MC.

Let's address the debutant issue first. Of course it helps massively to have course experience at Augusta, there is no doubting that. However, as mentioned above, special talents can do well here. Collin is in that category - three wins in the last 18 months prove that - but what we like most is his fearless approach;

"You know, experience never hurts. Shoot, I wish I had played here 15, 20 times, however many times they have played it. I wish I had that knowledge, but I don't. That's going to grow over the years I keep coming back and I keep playing, but for now I have to feel like I can still compete with these guys. It's not like I'm behind the 8‑ball already and I have a disadvantage. On Thursday, we all start at even par."

Yes, results haven't matched his blistering summer form, but a closer look shows his game isn't that far off. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd for SG: Approach, 20th SG: Around the greens and 8th for par 5 performance. In his last start at ZOZO, he ranked 3rd SG: Around the green. Collin summed up in his interview yesterday exactly why you have to sometimes look past the results;

"My results since the PGA have been a little struggling, but that doesn't mean the golf game and mental side isn't where I want it to be. It's an up‑and‑down game, golf is, but it's a lot of fun."

Let's not forget Collin is ranked 4th in the world, was the 2nd best iron player on tour last season, and the 6th best performers on par 5's - two key ingredients for success here. 30/1 with 10 places available should be snapped up.

Bubba Watson - 30/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
We considered picking Patrick Reed for this fourth spot given his recent form and champion display in 2018, but Bubba narrowly gets the nod. The two time Masters champ is revitalised after a run of missed cuts in the summer and arrives with form figures of 4-7-31-16-18.

It almost seems too obvious a selection but when something is staring you right in the face you can't ignore it. Bubba absolutely adores Augusta, which is perfect for his swashbuckling style. He can use his shot shape to work the slopes and won't find a better course to use his creativity. It fits his eye and if you're one for trends you can't do a lot better than his performances on even years - 5th in 2018, 37th in 2016 (how disappointing) and of course 1st in 2014 and 2012!

Stats wise he fits the bill too - this season he ranks 12th for Par 5 scoring, 9th for SG: Approach, 59th for SG: Around the green and 30th for driving distance. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 4th SG: Approach, 16th SG: Around the greens and 3rd par 5 scoring. It would be a surprise not to see Bubba go well again.

Cameron Smith - 80/1 @ 888Sport (7 places)
Cameron has been playing remarkably consistent golf over the past month and he is following a very similar trend to when he won the Sony Open earlier in the year. That win came after a two-week break which was preceded by good form, the same scenario which presents itself here. He's crept into the world's top 50 and whether you take the 80s for 7 places or 66s for 11 places (Skybet), he's a sound each way bet.

In addition to his fine recent form, he's played three times at the Masters and made the cut every time. He boasts a 5th place finish in 2018 so we know he can handle the test.

Those who believe in biorhythm can point to the fact Smith is a proven end of year performer having twice won the Australian PGA at the start of December and also recorded a runner-up spot at the Australian Open in 2016.

Si Woo Kim - 150/1 @ Bet365 (8 places)
Let's start with the positives for Si Woo. Other than a missed cut on his first appearance in 2017, he's posted consecutive top 25 finishes at The Masters. It's notable that his first four rounds at August were all over par, posting a cumulative score of +16. However, he appears to have cracked Augusta, having played his last six rounds in par or better and recording a cumulative score of -10.

His recent form is also encouraging. He was unfortunate to miss the cut last week on the number but prior to that he'd posted a 17th place at the CJ Cup and an 8th at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. His three career wins to date have all been proceeded by a mixture of mixed cuts and good finishes and it's this combination which attracts us to him.

Looking at his stats, a good week feels close as he ranked 4th SG: Approach at the Shriners, 1st SG: Around The Green at the CJ Cup and was excellent SG: Off The Tee last time out in Houston (he would have ranked in the top 15 had he continued his average through four rounds). His putting has been up and down but we are willing to roll the dice given the odds on offer and the fact he's a former Players Championship winner. All the pieces of the puzzle are there, it's just a question of will he put them together?

Pre-Event Bets

Specials bets

3pts Rickie Fowler to win Rd1 3 ball (10/11 @BetVictor)
Rickie doesn't have the best recent form but he does possess a rock solid recent Masters record. He's up against Danny Willett, who has missed every cut here since his Masters win and withdrew from the Houston Open after shooting a 77 last week. The third member of the group is amateur John Augenstein who is making his debut and likely to struggle with the rigours of Augusta.

2pts Rafa Cabrera Bello to win Rd1 3 ball (13/8 @Bet365)
Like Fowler, Rafa has a solid record at Augusta. His recent form is up and down but his opening rounds in his last four events have been 68-72-68-71 so we aren't overly concerned about his ability to post a good score here. He is up against Mike Weir who has done well on the Champions Tour this season but will struggle with the length of the course this week. His other opponent is Matt Wallace. Wallace played well in Scotland a few weeks back but was off the boil in his last start in Italy and struggled on his Masters debut last year.

1pt Bryson DeChambeau to birdie every par 5 in opening round (7/1 @Skybet)
We were surprised to see odds this big given this bet landed in 2019. Bryson is now a different player and with his length off the tee meaning he will face only a short iron into each of the par 5s this week. He recorded nine birdies on the par 5s in 2019 but we see him getting closer to 12 this week and with that in mind, the 7s is worth a small bet. There is a risk that one bad shot could ruin this bet, but four good tee shots should see it land.

0.5pts e/w Bernd Wiesberger Top Continental European (10/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
0.5pts e/w Viktor Perez Top Continental European (11/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
Jon Rahm is massive favourite to win this market but given Bet365 are offering three places its worth putting small bets on Wiesberger and Perez given the rest of the competitors are opposable. It's not inconceivable that one of these two pip Rahm this week but they both have good place claims even if they don't. Wiesberger has a steady Masters record and will enjoy the softer conditions this week. Viktor Perez is a debutant but has Rory McIlroy's old caddie, JP Fitzgerald, on the bag and Fitzgerald will be able to guide him round.

 

In-play

In-Play Blog

15th November 2020

-16 Johnson
-12 Ancer
-12 Im
-12 Smith
-11 Frittelli

The end of the second round didn't go as expected with Jon Rahm stalling on the back 9 - and before we knew it our 7/1 in-play selection Dustin Johnson had opened up a sizeable lead in the third. The world No 1 played holes 2-4 in eagle, birdie, birdie and made the rest of the round look like a walk in the park to open up a four shot advantage. 

It is almost impossible to see Dustin losing this now. Odds of 1.44 on Betfair Exchange look, if anything, extremely generous. The only plausible argument is "this is Augusta, anything can happen", but it has been a different course this year and the soft fairways and slower greens reduce the possibility of drama unfolding. 

All aspects of DJ's game are in terrific shape, and even as a backer it was almost boring watching him bend down to pick his tee up straight away after every drive. Skybet are doing a special on him hitting every fairway today at 20/1, which could be quite a fun way of enjoying the final round if you fancy a crazy bet!

Bookmakers are now offering how many shots he will win by and the 5/1 for him to win by 6 or more is tempting given who is in the chasing pack. Although high class PGA Tour players, Ancer and Im are Masters debutants and lack major last group experience on Sundays, while even Cameron Smith's two major top fives came from off the pace. Dylan Frittelli played beautifully yesterday, but you wouldn't be surprised if he continued the trend of 65-73-67. Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm sit at -10 and -9, but both flattered to deceive in their 3rd rounds.

We mentioned yesterday that Rahm made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he would need to keep them off his scorecard, and boy did he not do that. Viewers were left stunned when he topped his 2nd shot on 8 into the woods and then compounded the error by hitting a tree with his 3rd, bouncing back into a bush. It led to a double bogey which effectively ended his chances barring a miracle today. 

1PT EW RORY MCILROY WITHOUT DJ' - 22/1 @ BET365 (1/4 - 1,2,3)

It has been a mixed week for with Dustin rewarding our faith after day 1, but our side bets have not worked out so far. With a bit of luck Webb Simpson can squeeze a top 10 and Victor Perez can bag an each way spot on top continental European market. Three of our pre-event six to watch selections sit in the top 10 - Cameron Smith (80/1), Matsuyama (25/1) and Koepka (16/1), so it is still all to play for. 

We are adding this play mainly due to the doubts we mentioned with the chasing pack. Rory looks like he could be the man to capitalise if they do fade, and how often does he leave his major charge too late. If you follow our twitter, you may have seen Justin Ray's post that since the beginning of 2015 Rory has played round 1 in +28 and rounds 2-4 in -61, which is a truly staggering stat.

It might not be too late for 2nd spot. He has played the last 36 holes lower than anyone, recording only one bogey. He tops the driving stats and a slight improvement in his iron play could see him go low. He will be firing at every pin and it would be no shock to see another 66/67. 

0.5PTS RORY AND DJ BOTH BOGEY FREE ROUND 4 - 33/1 @ SKYBET

One final fun bet on offer today is 33/1 for Dustin and Rory to go bogey free at Skybet. DJ shouldn't be taking many chances and Rory is driving the ball so well he should keep out of trouble. DJ was bogey free yesterday and Rory has only made on bogey in the last 36 holes - on the 15th. The only negative is we don't know to what extent the course is going to play tougher but between the pair of them, they only made two bogeys in the final round of 2019 and seem to be playing better this year in easier conditions. 

 

 14th November 2020

-9 Ancer
-9 Smith
-9 Thomas
-9 D Johnson

Following on from the weather delay in round one, round two remains uncompleted with 29 players yet to finish.  There are four players leading in the clubhouse at nine under par but we could yet see others join them, or even pass them.  Jon Rahm has a short birdie putt at 13 to tie the lead when play resumes and it's likely he'll pick up another shot on the way home given he has the 15th and 16th to play.

With that in mind, Rahm is now favourite at the bookies at 10/3.  That price implies he will finish round two ahead of the field but given the quality of the chasing pack we wouldn't advise getting onboard at that price.  Rahm did well when converting at Memorial earlier this year but it'll be interesting to see how the pressure affects him if he takes the sole second round lead.  He made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he'll need to keep them off his scorecard given the depth behind.

Weather conditions are expected to be pleasant with no rain forecast and we should see the second and third rounds completed today with no problem.  The course will dry out further and the greens are likely to be running faster also.

We should note that it will be a long day for those players yet to complete their second round and the players who have already completed their second round will probably have a slight advantage.

Cameron Smith (80/1) was one of our Six To Watch before the event began and it is pleasing to see him go into the weekend as joint leader.  Our 7/1 in-play tip yesterday, Dustin Johnson goes into the weekend very much in the mix too. 

2PTS WEBB SIMPSON TOP 10 FINISH - 9/2 @ BETWAY

This bet came in last year as Webb posted a 5th place finish and we think it's value to come in again.  Webb is currently 3 under par, playing the 15th hole of his second round.  However, he's already hit his approach shot and has a 4ft putt for eagle when play resumes.  Assuming he holes that, he will jump to 5 under par and 19th on the leaderboard.  The course will firm up over the weekend and that will suit Webb.  Tenth position is seven under par as it stands, so the 9/2 seems more than fair for a player who has stated that he has worked out how to play Augusta following years of poor results.

3PTS SHANE LOWRY TO SHOOT OVER 70.5 IN ROUND 3 - 5/6 @ BETFAIR

This bet will only be valid if Shane makes the cut (he is currently on the cut line).  Shane was unable to complete his second round yesterday but is a couple under par and on course to make the cut.  Excluding yesterday's unfinished round, Shane has had eleven competitive rounds at Augusta.  He has only managed to break 71 on one occasion.  Augusta is a demanding test physically and given Shane will have to play 26 holes today we think that further strengthens the case against him.  Shane himself will acknowledge he isn't the fittest guy on Tour so it's going to be a big ask for him to follow up one low round with another (if he doesn't post a decent second round he won't make the cut).  Finally, with the course drying up further, we should see the course play tougher and average scores increase.

 

 

13th November 2020

-7 Casey
-5 Simpson
-5 Schauffele
-5 Thomas (Through 10)

It was a frustrating start to the long awaited return to Augusta as the horn sounded after a few minutes of TV coverage due to some extreme weather conditions. It pushed play back three hours and as a result the afternoon starters still have half their rounds to finish.

Not to worry though, the forecast seems near perfect from here on in and we can only expect the course to get tougher as it dries out. With this in mind, it is important not to get too hung up on individual performances yesterday, as it is a completely different course when it's not target golf. 

It's always trickier trying to assess who is the value in this scenario - for example, the rest of Justin Thomas' and Dustin Johnson's rounds can have a massive impact on the chances of those in the clubhouse who have already started well.

We've seen the troubles starting on the back 9 can have - Bryson and Rahm were both +2 at one point yesterday - and that is exactly what JT and Dustin will have to face today, but it also wouldn't be a huge shock if one of them were to catch Casey. 

Of the favourites, and much to our disappointment, only Brooks Koepka has just about played his way out of it barring a low back 9 today. Despite Casey's fast start, it is still hard to see past the pre-event favourites. With this in mind, we have identified our most likely winner from here, as well as a couple of side plays.

2PTS WIN ONLY DUSTIN JOHNSON - 7/1 @ 888SPORT

A mentioned in the preview, we were reluctant to play one of the favourites each way before the off due to the price, but given Dustin has only ever so slightly shortened after a fast start, we are more than happy to get onboard now for a win only bet. Dustin is -3 through 9 and has smashed a drive down 10. We can expect him to bag a couple more birdies coming in. We probably have a fast start from Justin Thomas to thank for his price holding up so nicely but even with a two shot head start, our money is on DJ to prevail. He is driving the ball beautifully and quite simply playing the best golf in the world right now - sometimes you just have to play it as you see it. 

1PT EW JUSTIN ROSE '2ND ROUND LEADER' - 40/1 @ BETFAIR (1/5 - 1,2,3,4,5)

Firstly let's make it clear this tip is for the 2nd Round Leader market, not the 1st round! Justin currently sits on -3 after 9 holes and if he can get through Amen Corner unscathed there is no reason why he can't finish the round one or two off the 18 hole lead. We were tempted to put him up in the outright also, but the 50/1 available last night has disappeared and we feel this is the perfect market for him due to doubts that he can piece four rounds together at the moment. 

2PTS MAX HOMA TOP 20 FINISH - 7/1 @ BETFAIR

Max has played the back 9 in -2, despite taking a double bogey on 12. A look back at the tracker shows how well he is driving the ball so far and there is no reason he can't kick on. The 2019 Wells Fargo champion posted four consecutive top 20's at the start of 2020 before losing his way, but his last couple of results have hinted he can return to those heights. Another angle is that when 5th at Genesis this year the leaderboard was filled with some of Augusta's top performers - Rory, Kuchar, Scott and Matsuyama. The Masters is a notoriously hard to play catch up and the hope is that this round will give him the confidence to stick around.