Preview
2023 PGA Championship Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 18th May 2023
Course: East Course, Oak Hill CC, New York
Par: 70
Length: 7,394 yards
2022 Champion: Justin Thomas
The Basics
Oak Hill CC was used for the 2013 PGA Championship but there have been significant course changes since that event. Several hundred trees have been removed, new tees created, bunkers recontoured and the greens have been reshaped.
Andrew Green also oversaw significant changes to three holes, including removing one completely. The previous par 3 sixth hole has been replaced by a shorter par 3 that is now the fifth hole on the scorecard. The old fifth now plays as the sixth and will play as a 504 yard par 4. Finally, the par 3 15th has a new green that has been moved further away from the water that previously offered some protection.
Course Info
Course Designer: Donald Ross (Andrew Green renovation)
US PGA last played here: 2013
Type of Course: Classical
2013 Recap
Jason Dufner won his only Major, beating Jim Furyk by two shots. Dufner shot a second round 63, setting a new course record, to take control of the tournament at the halfway stage. However, Dufner trailed by a shot going into the final round.
Significant Info
The US PGA was previously the final Major of the year but since 2019 it has occupied a May slot in the calendar.
Oak Hill CC has previously hosted three US Opens (1956, 1968 and 1989), three PGA Championships (1980, 2003 and 2013) and the Ryder Cup in 1995.
Weather
Available the week of the tournament.
Thursday: Sunny. Wind 5-10mph.
Friday: Cloudy. Wind 10-15mph.
Saturday: Rain showers possible. Wind 10-15mph.
Sunday: Cloudy. Wind 10-15mph.
2023 PGA Championship Trends
Winning Score
Since 2012, winning scores at the PGA Championship have ranged from -5 to -20. When the PGA Championship was last played at Oak Hill (2013), Jason Dufner won with a score of -10.
Course Form
Use the 2013 results as a guide but given the course changes we're treating these results as helpful rather than definitive. The course will also play differently in May than it did in August, when the 2013 event was played.
Recent Form
Hot form coming in usually counts for a lot at the US PGA Championship. Twelve of the past fourteen champions had recorded a top 20 finish in at least one of their last two events prior to winning.
Nationality
The last seven winners have been from the USA but prior to that we have seen a mix of nationalities win.
Age
Ten of the last fourteen winners were in their 20s. Three of the other three winners were in their 30s and Phil Mickelson was approaching 50 when he triumphed in 2021!
Major Virgins
Eight of the past fourteen winners were claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past fourteen did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.
US PGA Exposure
Ten of the past fourteen US PGA champions had recorded a top 8 finish in the event prior to winning. Eleven of the past fourteen had recorded a top 20 finish.
Debutants
Two of the past fourteen US PGA champions were playing in the tournament for the first time.
World Ranking
Ten of the last fourteen winners of the US PGA Championship were ranked in the top 25 of the official world golf rankings prior to winning. Notable that we have seen three winners outside the top 100 also prevail.
2022: Three of the top seven were inside world's top 30.
2021: Two of the top seven were inside world's top 30.
2020: Five of the top eight were inside the world's top 30.
2019: Five of the top six were inside the world's top 31.
2018: Two of the top five were in the top 30. However, the other three players were all Major winners.
2017: The top six were all ranked inside the top 30.
2023 PGA Championship Stats Analysis
Previous US PGA Championships tells us we are looking for a player strong off the tee and on approach. Power is favoured over accuracy off the tee.
Driving Distance
Power players are favoured. Rankings in last six years (most recent first) have been 26-21-53-11-2-1.
Driving Accuracy
Little emphasis on Driving Accuracy. Rankings have been 45-101-5-62-26-113.
SG: Off The Tee
Rankings have been 16-29-6-3-3-32. Preferable to be a strong driver.
SG: Approach
Approach play needs to be in decent order. Rankings in last six years have been 38-5-22-1-11-23.
SG: Around The Green
Justin Thomas was 13th for SG: Around The Green in 2022 and Phil Mickelson was 18th in 2021. However, no winner in the four years prior to Mickelson had ranked inside the top 30.
SG: Putting
Rankings the past six years have been 2-37-1-59-23-4. Morikawa and Thomas putted beautifully for their wins in 2020 and 2022 but on the whole it's not the be all and end all.
2023 PGA Championship In Play Advice
Fast or Slow Start
Jason Dufner was 11th after the opening round in 2013. All of the top five in 2013 were 11th or better after the opening round.
Oak Hill Quotes
"I'm looking forward to it. I think Andrew Green's done a really good job. I think the renovation has hopefully restored the East Course back to its former glory, I would say. I'm just hoping for a good weather week. I think that's what everyone's hoping for up there in May. But excited to go back to Oak Hill. From the last time I was there or we were all there my connection to Rochester's got a lot stronger. So I'm excited to go and play a major championship in what feels like almost like a second home to me." Rory McIlroy, March 2023
"Yeah, my record at the PGA Championship has been the best out of all the Majors. I think more than anything else the golf courses that we have played in this tournament have been set up in such a way that it suits my type of game and it really rewards good driving. If you drive the ball well, I drove the ball really well at Kiawah, drove the ball well last year at Valhalla but even before that, you go to places like Hazeltine and back here in 2010 and even somewhere like Oak Hill in 2013, places that put a premium on hitting the ball in the fairway and hitting it quite a long way to take advantage of that." Rory McIlroy, August 2015
"There's a few holes in which you're looking at making birdies, on that back nine, especially. Eleven is a short hole. Fourteen is a short hole. Even 13, you're going to have a wedge in there. So there's a few opportunities where you're going to have wedges in your hands and you're going to try to make birdies. But the penalty for going and being a little too aggressive is harsh; it's very severe. Fourteen is drivable. I couldn't get there today, because it was 300, the wind was kicking up and it was into me. I can't hit it 300 yards into the wind in the air, so I laid up. The finishing holes with 17 and 18 are tough holes. Now, today, I hit driver right down the middle of the fairway on 17, ended up in the rough because a little downwind, it gets over that crest and it's out of here, so I hit 3‑wood down there and hit a 5‑iron on the green. And 18, I hit a 3‑wood and a 7‑iron on there." Tiger Woods, 2013
2023 PGA Championship Tips
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In-play
2023 PGA Championship In-Play Blog
21st May 2023, 10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Koepka |
-6 |
| Hovland |
-5 |
| Conners |
-5 |
| DeChambeau |
-3 |
| Two players tied |
-2 |
2023 PGA Championship Round 3 Summary
Rain caused problems for the leaders for much of the front nine before clearing and making the course more scoreable on the way in. Favourite Scottie Scheffler struggled to get to grips with the conditions, shooting a 73 to fall four back. Our 22/1 pre-event tip Brooks Koepka now takes a one shot lead over Viktor Hovland and our 100/1 pre-event play Corey Conners.
Notable Round 3 PGA Championship Quotes
"My iron game has been very, very good this week. I hit a lot of good approach shots and you know, not that I've made crazy amount of birdies just by stuffing it with the approach shots, even though I hit a couple really nice ones. But it's more just, okay, if I'm slightly out of position or if the pin is tucked, just kind of wearing 15 to 20, 25 feet and getting a lot of shots with my irons, doing that and playing very stress-free golf." Viktor Hovland
" To just never think the way I thought going into the final round. I think that was a big thing for me but other than that I think even having -- learning what I learned at Augusta kind of helped today. Like I said, I won't do it again the rest of my career. But that doesn't mean that you can't go play bad -- you can play good, you'll play bad but I'll never have that mindset or that won't ever be the reason." Brooks Koepka
"I feel like I've hung in there the last three days to give myself a chance going into Sunday. I haven't felt a hundred percent with my swing. Going into tomorrow, I felt like I started to drive the ball well on the back nine, and hitting the fairways is going to be extremely important in terms of trying to make a run at the guys on top of the leaderboard tomorrow." Scottie Scheffler
"I kind of grinded it out. I didn't have my best stuff, but I felt like he managed the golf course very well and took advantage of the opportunities when I had it. Made some crucial saves there on the back side. Yeah, it was a good day. I hit a really nice putt on 18 that didn't go in, but very pleased with how I played and the score I shot." Dustin Johnson
"Yeah, it was a really solid day. I managed my game well in the difficult conditions, and yeah, happy with the round. It was a fun battle out there and very difficult." Corey Conners
2023 PGA Championship 4 Weather
The players should enjoy a warmer sunny, dry day and wind should be around 11-14mph throughout.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Brooks Koepka has taken over as favourite at 13/10 and he will be looking to write the wrongs he made at Augusta, shooting a 75 in the heat of the battle with Jon Rahm. He has spoke quite openly about that since, saying he went into the round with the wrong mindset. One can only assume he meant he didn't fully believe in himself that day and he has promised to never lose like that again.
A four time major champion who has led the field tee to green each of the last two days, you just get the feeling he is going to be really difficult to beat today and it would take a brave man to go against him. We have been keen on his chances since the start and optimistic he finishes the job, however the value is probably gone at his current price.
In-Play PGA Championship Bets We Considered
We're still in a strong position with our pre-event selections - Corey Conners, Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose now sit inside the top 5. The question is whether to hedge our bets a little bit, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler the obvious dangers still from behind.
Hovland has been extremely poor on Sunday's in contention of late, in fact he has went backwards in his last five with rounds of 74-75-71-69-74. He is clearly playing great golf but he feels unbackable with that recent record under pressure at 7/2.
We are still considering covering Scheffler at 9/1 and wouldn't put anyone off him, his swing was clearly not suited to the wet conditions yesterday and he should be back to his best on a dry Sunday where the stakes are high. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year from a few shots back and if Koepka is to have an off day, we still rate him as a big threat.
In other markets, the 18/1 offered by Skybet for Brooks Koepka/Rory McIlroy 1st and 2nd any order makes some appeal, how often do we see McIlroy finish with a flourish only to just miss out? However, it's been a great event for us regardless of today's event so we are leaning towards just sitting back and hoping Koepka makes up for his Augusta heartbreak!
Round 4 Bets
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20th May 2023, 10:15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hovland |
-5 |
| Conners |
-5 |
| Scheffler |
-5 |
| Suh |
-3 |
| DeChambeau |
-3 |
| Two players tied |
-2 |
2023 PGA Championship Round 2 Summary
A draw bias emerged in round two with the afternoon starters getting considerably better conditions, with more receptive greens and less wind. The top seven in the leaderboard were all AM-PM wave. We have a three way tie at the top - favourite Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and our 100/1 pre-event play Corey Conners.
Notable Round 2 PGA Championship Quotes
"Yeah, it was a good day today. Kind of similar game plan as yesterday. Just try to hit fairways and middle of the green on almost every single hole. Really didn't try to go for a whole lot of pins and just giving myself a lot of looks. Happened to make a couple of nice putts. Viktor Hovland
"Well, look, I know what to do. I've done it before. It's been a few years, but it doesn't mean I don't know how to do it, and if it's not my time, it's not my time, and I feel like I'm definitely trending in the right direction finally." Bryson DeChambeau
"I felt like I did a good job of grinding today. I had some nice up-and-downs and kept the course in front of me for the most part. Didn't hit as many fairways as I would hope to. " Scottie Scheffler
"I kind of grinded it out. I didn't have my best stuff, but I felt like he managed the golf course very well and took advantage of the opportunities when I had it. Made some crucial saves there on the back side. Yeah, it was a good day. I hit a really nice putt on 18 that didn't go in, but very pleased with how I played and the score I shot." Dustin Johnson
"Yeah, I think just getting experience in the situation is helpful. Yeah, I think winning in Texas a little over a month ago, take a lot from that. Yeah, lots of confidence in my game, feel good, and having fun out there." Corey Conners
2023 PGA Championship 3 Weather
We look set for a rainy day and wind should be around 9-12mph throughout.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Scottie Scheffler remains favourite and has shortened to 13/8 since taking a share of the lead. We're stating the obvious that he's the man to beat but it felt like he had an opportunity to create a decent lead yesterday and his finish has let a lot of players back into it. We would neither back or fade him at his current price.
In-Play PGA Championship Bets We Considered
We're still in a strong position with our pre-event selections despite Dustin Johnson falling away yesterday - Corey Conners, Brooks Keopka and Justin Rose all sit inside the top 10. Had we not been on Brooks Koepka from the off, he would be a player we would be looking to invest in today at 10/1, in fact it is tempting to top up despite writing this. Koepka showed great patience yesterday watching Scheffler get off to a flying start and ended up shooting a best of the day 67, leading the field tee to green. He appears focused on the task in hand and seems desperate to right his wrongs from that final round at Augusta.
In other markets, Rory McIlroy makes some appeal in the top European market at 9/2. Rory has been nowhere near his best yet is only five behind the leaders. He will need to get past Viktor Hovland but he has been struggling to piece four rounds together lately, admitting to struggles at the weekend. With soft conditions expected today, it looks ideal for a McIlroy moving day charge.
Round 3 Bets
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19th May 2023, 8:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Cole (thru 14 holes) |
-5 |
| DeChambeau |
-4 |
| Scheffler |
-3 |
| Conners |
-3 |
| Johnson |
-3 |
| Four players tied |
-7 |
2023 PGA Championship Round 1 Summary
Bryson DeChambeau looked for a long time like he would lead after posting a morning 66 but Eric Cole is currently five under par with four holes remaining of his first round. A near two hour delay to the start of play due to frost saw players finishing in near darkness and it was notable that Adam Scott made double bogey at his last hole (to drop down to two under par) and Dustin Johnson made bogey.
We advised DeChambeau as a first round leader selection at 80/1 to subscribers, so we are hoping Cole drops at least one shot coming into the clubhouse.
Notable Round 1 PGA Championship Quotes
"I'm hitting my irons pretty well, I feel like. The few opportunities that you have -- because you don't have a ton, obviously. It's a hard course. When I did have an opportunity, I kind of felt like I happened to read it right and hit a good putt, and they went in today, so that was good. Eric Cole
"It's been a while. So nice to come back and start to finally figure out what's going on with my golf swing. As I've told you guys before, I've struggled with my driving. You see me out there on the range. That's something I don't want to do. I don't want to be out there all night, but I've had to to figure out what I did so well in 2018 and what made me so successful then. I feel like I'm catching on and trending that direction. Figured out a couple things this week, and it certainly paid off today." Bryson DeChambeau
"It's a long tournament, and the guys this morning I would say probably didn't have as much wind as we did in the afternoon. I think you saw that with the scores; there definitely wasn't an 11-under out there in the afternoon. " Scottie Scheffler
"I kind of grinded it out. I didn't have my best stuff, but I felt like he managed the golf course very well and took advantage of the opportunities when I had it. Made some crucial saves there on the back side. Yeah, it was a good day. I hit a really nice putt on 18 that didn't go in, but very pleased with how I played and the score I shot." Dustin Johnson
"I've been excited to get here to Oak Hill for a while. It just has a little bit of a Canadian feel, like I'm playing back home. Familiar with the grass. Yeah, tight fairways, deep rough, small greens. That's what you've got here." Corey Conners
2023 PGA Championship 2 Weather
Sunny intervals. Wind 12-17mph, with the wind weakest at the very end of the day.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Scottie Scheffler was joint favourite coming into the event but is now clear favourite after an opening round of 67. All aspects of the world number two's game were firing in round one and he was one of the few players to go bogey free. However, we're in no rush to back 5/2 with some wind in the forecast and plenty of quality players in and around the top of the leaderboard.
If we were going to back Scheffler we would much prefer the 7/2 available on him to lead after the scound round. He is one of the players with a later tee time and should have the best of conditions.
In-Play PGA Championship Bets We Considered
We considered Keegan Bradley and Bryson DeChambeau for second round leader. Both players tee off late in the afternoon and should have the optimum conditions to post a score. However, we would have liked slightly larger prices on both.
In terms of the outright market, we're in a strong position with our pre-event selections. Corey Conners, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose have made promising starts. Viktor Hovland and Keegan Bradley were the two players we considered adding to our position from the players at the top of the betting. Neither price made any appeal in the end though and we looked at a bigger price.
Round 2 Bets
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