PGA Championship 2022

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 19^th May 2022
Course: Southern Hills CC, Oklahoma
Par: 70
Length: 7,556 yards
2021 Champion: Phil Mickelson

The Basics

Southern Hills GC was used for the 2001 US Open and 2007 PGA Championship but the 2018 Gil Hanse renovation has restored the course back to it's original vision with the course playing very different now. Fairways have been widened, trees have been cut, creeks and hazards have been brought into play more and the rough around the greens has been removed, meaning there are plenty of run off areas to penalise small misses.

Course Info

Course Designer: Perry Maxwell (Gil Hanse renovation in 2018)
US PGA last played here: 2007
Type of Course: Classical
Fairways: Bermuda
Rough: Bermuda with tall fescue
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: In play on 15 holes
Par 5's: 5th and 13th
Premium on: Approach play and scrambling.

2007 Recap

Tiger Woods won by two shots on 8 under par.

Only one European placed inside the top 10, there were two Australians and two South Africans.

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

The US PGA was previously the final Major of the year up until 2021 but now occupies a May slot in the calendar.

Weather

It will be a dry and hot until the weekend where it cools down significantly over the weekend. We may get some rain on Sunday.

Thursday: Sunny with winds of 16mph.
Friday: Sunny with winds of 14mph.
Saturday: Light Cloud with winds of 16mph.
Sunday: Light Rain with winds of 13mph.

Trends

Winning Score
We have seen winning scores at the US PGA range from -6 to -20 since 2012. Tiger won here with -8 in 2007.

Correlating Courses
With the course renovation in place, it has been likened to Augusta around the greens. Southern Hills course designer, Perry Maxwell, was a partner of Alister MacKenzie, course designer of Augusta. Maxwell would work on a number of greens at Augusta, introducing many of the contours we have become accustomed to. Liberty National which hosts the Northern Trust has also been used as a comparison.

Course Form
Use the 2001 and 2007 results as a guide but given the course changes we're treating these results as helpful rather than definitive.

Recent Form
Usually counts for a lot at the US PGA Championship, 11 of the past 13 champions had recorded a top 20 finish in their two events prior to winning. However, Phil Mickelson hadn't posted a top 20 finish all year before his win last year but was 21st at the Masters.

Nationality
The last six winners have been from the USA but prior to that we have seen a mix of nationalities win.

Age
Nine of the last thirteen winners were in their 20s. Three of the other three winners were in their 30s and Mickelson was approaching 50!

Major Virgins
Eight of the past thirteen winners were claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past thirteen did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.

US PGA Exposure
Nine of the past thirteen US PGA champions had recorded a top 8 finish in the event prior to winning. Ten of the past thirteen had recorded a top 20 finish.

Debutants
Two of the past thirteen US PGA champions were playing in the tournament for the first time.

World Ranking
Nine of the last thirteen winners of the US PGA were ranked in the top 25 of the official world golf rankings prior to winning. Notable that we have seen three winners outside the top 100 also prevail.

2021: Two of the top seven were inside world's top 30.

2020: Five of the top eight were inside the world's top 30.

2019: Five of the top six were inside the world's top 31.

2018: Two of the top five were in the top 30. However, the other three players were all Major winners.

2017: The top six were all ranked inside the top 30.

Stats Analysis

Previous US PGA Championships tells us we are looking for a player strong off the tee and on approach. Power is favoured over accuracy off the tee.

Driving Distance
Power players are favoured. Rankings in last five years (most recent first) have been 21-53-11-2-1.

Driving Accuracy
Little emphasis on Driving Accuracy. Rankings have been 101-5-62-26-113.

SG: Off The Tee
Rankings have been 29-6-3-3-32. Preferable to be a strong driver.

SG: Approach
Approach play needs to be in decent order. Rankings in last five years have been 5-22-1-11-23. With contoured greens and steep run off areas, we want accurate iron players this week.

SG: Around The Green
No winner in the past four years prior to Mickelson winning had ranked inside the top 30. Mickelson ranked 18th.

SG: Putting
Rankings the past five years have been 37-1-59-23-4. Morikawa putted beautifully for his win in 2020 but on the whole it's not the be all and end all.

In Play

Closing Stretch
The 16th is a tough 522 yard par 4 followed by the scoreable 371 yard par 4 17th and another tough 491 yard par 4 18th. Seven majors have been played at this venue over the years and only two winners have parred the final hole!

Fast or Slow Start
Mickelson was three shots behind after round one last year while Tiger was six behind after round one back in 2007 before leading from halfway onwards. Both should be taken with a pinch of salt though due to time elapsed and course changes.

In-play

PGA Championship In-Play Blog

22 May 2022, 11:25am (UK time)

Player	Total
Pereira	-9
Fitzpatrick	-6
Zalatoris	-6
Young	-5
Ancer	-4
Power	-3

Round 3 Summary

Will Zalatoris bogeyed four of his first seven holes to relinquish the lead early on. Mito Pereira had a four stroke lead standing on the 8th tee but sloppy bogeys at 8, 9 and 10 kept the others in with a chance at the turn. However, Pereira bounced back with birdies at three of his last six holes to open up a three shot lead. The change of wind direction and cool temperatures caused players problems.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"I was pretty frustrated with the start but I would rather have a frustrating start and good finish. It's good momentum heading into tomorrow. It was brutal out there. I really did a poor job of leaving myself above the hole pretty much all day." Will Zalatoris

"I think last week and this week has been really good. Today it was a really tough day. It was windy, cold, gusting. I thought I hit it really well. Hit some bad shots. But it's normal. So I think I'm hitting the ball just awesome." Mito Pereira

"I'm just looking forward to it. I've spoke about it with my coaches at length about my major record. You know, I've always just said to them, I just want to give myself a chance because I backed myself at the end of the day. I feel like whenever I've had a chance in Europe, I've played very well. Even over here when I've had chances to win, if you really look, I've not had that many chances to win. But when I have, I've played well. I've not lost it." Matt Fitzpatrick

Round 4 Weather

Sunny but cool. The wind isn't forecast to exceed 14mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Mito Pereira is the 6/4 favourite. A three time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour winner, he's yet to win on the PGA Tour and this is undoubtedly the most significant moment in his career to date. Only one of those three career wins came when leading after 54 holes (he was in fact joint leader).

We backed Pereira in the top South American market earlier in the week so we don't see any overwhelming need to back him again. We saw yesterday how quickly a lead can evaporate and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Pereira's lead trimmed after the opening two holes. If we were inclined to back Pereira it would be after the first few holes rather than before he tees off.

Pereira has generally been solid in contention and the fact he's 2nd this week for SG: Tee to Green indicates we shouldn't expect him to fall away. Leaders do have an excellent record at Southern Hills in previous Majors but we saw at last year's Senior PGA Championship that those tucked in behind can win too.

Matt Fitzpatrick is the man the bookies consider to be Pereira's biggest threat. The Englishman was superb in round 3 and could have easily been a couple of shots lower had putts dropped. He has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and he's certainly a danger.

Will Zalatoris is alongside Fitzpatrick at six under par and he's a best price 9/2. The young American missed some very short putts yesterday and it was clear from the outset he wasn't comfortable leading. He played much better yesterday when chasing and it is expected that he will mount a charge today coming from behind.

Zalatoris has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating given mixed results in contention. He's expected to fare better than yesterday.

Round 4 Bets

+ - Round 2 Blog Click to collapse

21 May 2022, 9:25am (UK time)

Player	Total
Zalatoris	-9
Pereira	-8
Thomas	-6
Watson	-5
McIlroy	-4
Ancer	-4
Riley	-4

Round 2 Summary

Once again, one side of the draw got the better conditions as the wind died down late in the afternoon. Fourteen of the top sixteen on the leaderboard have come from the AM-PM side of the draw.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"We lucked out with the draw for sure. I played the last eight holes with not much wind, but take it when you can get it." Will Zalatoris

"There's a long way to go, a lot of golf left. We're going to see a completely different golf course the next two days because of the wind direction. It's going to play completely differently. Probably none of the -- maybe a couple of guys that came up earlier or Viktor that's been here a while might have seen the golf course in a northerly wind, but for the most part everyone is going to have to adapt." Rory McIlroy

"I can't say I played bad. I gave myself a lot of chances. I think the main thing yesterday was a couple mistakes, just mental mistakes." Jon Rahm

"I feel like I'm playing well. We're halfway through so it's still a long way from home, but I'm very, very pleased with where everything is at and the frame of mind and state of mind that I'm in." Justin Thomas

Round 3 Weather

The weather will once again play a part in proceedings as the wind direction is set to switch and thunderstorms are possible throughout the afternoon. Wind is forecast to be around 13-15mph if play is uninterrupted.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Will Zalatoris is the 9/4 favourite and he'll be hoping to replicate his 2014 win here as an amateur at the Trans-Mississippi Amateur Championship. It was interesting that Zalatoris referenced Scottie Scheffler in his post round interview and there's no doubt Scheffler's ascent to the top will inspire Zalatoris.

Justin Thomas is next in the betting at 7/2 and he has to be under consideration given he's come from the worse side of the draw. However, 7/2 seems a little on the short side for us and we're happy to pass him by.

Where is the value?

With weather causing potential problems, we'll be looking at the two ball markets predominantly today. We're 5/5 this week and hope to continue that form into the weekend.

Round 3 Bets

Our bets for Major Championship are only available for subscribers.

{slider=Round 2 Blog}

20 May 2022, 8:25am (UK time)

Player	Total
McIlroy	-5
Zalatoris	-4
Hoge	-4
Kuchar	-3
Ancer	-3
Thomas	-3
Nine Players Tied	-2

Round 1 Summary

As expected, the morning starters had the best of conditions and of the top six players, only Justin Thomas was an afternoon starter. Rory McIlroy looked good for much of Round 1 and capped his round with a 19ft birdie putt at his final hole of the day.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"It (the course) was very fair. Definitely no gripes with the setup or anything like that. It was challenging. The golf course is very challenging. But the setup was fair. The greens were good. The fairways are in good shape. The golf course is in great shape. Outside of a little bit of wind and then 150 guys walking on the greens they get a little chewed up, but other than that, things are in a good spot out there." Scottie Scheffler

"I definitely don't feel my best, but I feel better than I sound. I felt terrible Tuesday; felt a little better yesterday; and then feel a little better today. I'm just -- I guess the allergies here are just crushing me. I felt like I had a sinus infection coming in, but I think I've kind of fought it off. But yeah, just slightly congested." Justin Thomas

"I feel like this course, it lets you be pretty aggressive off the tee if you want to be, so I hit quite a lot of drivers out there and took advantage of my length and finished that off with some nice iron play and some nice putting." Rory McIlroy

Round 2 Weather

The weather forecast indicates the wind will be strongest in the morning, with winds of 20mph and gusts even higher. The wind will cause less problems in the afternoon with the forecast indicating 10-12mph winds in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible towards the end of the day.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Rory McIlroy is 3/1 favourite to win and given the draw, has to considered. Given we have him to win wire to wire pre-event at 125/1, we don't see the need to back him.

Next in the betting is Justin Thomas at 7/1. However, he faces the trickiest of conditions today and we'd be laying 7/1 rather than backing it.

Cameron Smith is 3rd favourite in the betting and he would be much preferred to Thomas. Smith was another of our pre-event selections and given he enjoys the easier afternoon conditions, he can be expected to make progress.

Where is the value?

With the weather forecast indicating afternoon players will have an advantage, there are a number of markets of interest. We like bets in the top South African and top South American markets. We also have several 3 ball selections and two second round leader plays. There is also one outright play we're advising to subscribers.

Round 2 Bets

Our bets for Major Championship are only available for subscribers.

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