LIV Golf Jeddah 2022

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 14 October 2022
Course: Royal Greens G&CC, Saudi Arabia
Par: 70 (35-35)
Length: 7,010 yards

Course Info

Designer: Dave Sampson
Course Type: Short, Coastal
Fairways: Narrow-Average
Rough: Average.
Greens: Royal Dynasty Paspalum
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 4th, 18th
Premium on: Length off the tee

Weather Forecast

Fri: Sunny. Wind 11mph.
Sat: Sunny. Wind 11mph.
Sun: Sunny. Wind 12mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

Royal Greens G&CC held the Saudi International on the European Tour between 2019-2021. It also held the Saudi International on the Asian Tour in 2022. All events were played at the start of the year so conditions will be different this week. The course is much softer and the wind is expected to be significantly weaker than previous years.

Trends

Winning score
Winning score in the past four events held here has been -13, -15, -12 and -19. We can expect a winning score in the mid teens given the weather forecast.

Correlating Courses
Al Mouj Golf Course (Oman Open) is also laid with Paspalum Grass. We should look for comfortable links players, perhaps due to the strong winds that tend to arrive.

Course form
Harold Varner was a course debutant when winning the Saudi International earlier this year. However, Dustin Johnson has a course record which reads 8-1-2-1!! Course experience preferred but not essential.

Recent form
Harold Varner posted a 22nd place finish prior to his win at the Saudi International this year. Dustin Johnson was 11th at the Tournament of Champions prior to his win in 2021. Graeme McDowell had a 4th place finish at the Sony Open in 2020 a few weeks before his win but missed his previous cut in Dubai. In 2019, Dustin Johnson arrived in hot form with finishes of 16th and 4th in his two prior starts. We should look for some form already shown in 2022.

Nationality
Americans have won three of the four events held at Royal Greens G&CC.

Stats Analysis

Strokes Gained stats are available for the three European Tour events played here between 2019-2021 but they don't include stats for players who weren't members of the European Tour.

Driving Distance
DJ was 5th in this category in 2021. Graeme McDowell ranked 47th in 2020. In 2019 the top 5 all ranked 1st-13th. Ignoring McDowell, driving distance seems a massive advantage here.

SG: Off The Tee
In 2021, DJ ranked 2nd. However, Tony Finau was the only other player in the top 5 to rank inside the top 20. In 2020, McDowell was 36th but three of the top 5 ranked inside the top 20 for SG: Off The Tee. In 2019, three of the top six ranked in the top 10 for this category.

SG: Approach
DJ was 5th last year. McDowell was 32nd in 2020 but it was notable Thomas Pieters (3rd) was 1st. Tom Lewis ranked 4th for approach in 2019 when finishing 3rd but the rest of the top 10 didn't rank highly.

SG: Around the Green
DJ was 20th in 2021. McDowell was 19th in 2020.

SG: Putting
Johnson putted terribly in 2021, ranking 89th. McDowell putted superbly in 2020 to finish 5th in this category.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 13th, 16th and 3rd played as the hardest holes on the course in 2021.

Birdie Holes
The 4th, 17th and 10th played as the three easiest holes in 2021.

Fast or Slow Start
Harold Varner was 2nd after the opening round earlier this year. In 2021, DJ trailed by 6 after round 1. McDowell led after round 1 and was always near the top in 2019. In 2019, DJ was 5 back after round 1 and Hao Tong Li (2nd) was 4 shots back. Catch up is possible around here.

Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th rank among the five easiest holes on the course. The 17th hole is a driveable par 4 for the long hitters and 18 was the 4th easiest hole on course at the 2021 Saudi International.

Course Notes 2022

Wind
The final round was extremely windy. Matt Wolff said it was "by far the windiest conditions I've played in than other events I've played in."

Bombers Paradise
Long hitters once again prevailed. Make no mistake, long hitters have an advantage here.

2022 Player Quotes

Cameron Smith: "It was really solid. Just struggled on the greens all week. I felt as though I was hitting good putts, and I just couldn't get them to drop this week. The course is great. It's tough. When the wind gets up, it's really tough. There's a couple of greens out here that get a bit dicey with that wind."

Harold Varner III: "I think you've got to drive it really well. It's forgiving off the tee, but when it's blowing this hard, the lines get a little bit tighter, and you've just got to keep hitting good shots."

Matthew Wolff: "I think the entire course is good. There's a lot of holes out there, but it really makes you think. There's a lot of holes that are short and you might think they're easy, but at the end of the day there's always something to think about, whether the desert cuts in or just where the pin location is and stuff. It's definitely a sneaky good golf course."

Course Notes 2021

Draw Bias
In 2021, the wind was much stronger Thursday afternoon. On Friday the morning starters had rain and wind all morning before the weather calmed down slightly for the afternoon starters. As a result, none of the PM-AM draw were in the top 10 at halfway and none of the top 5 at the end of the tournament played PM-AM.

Bombers Paradise
Once again, the course proved a perfect fit for long hitters like DJ and Ryan Fox. The leaderboard was packed with big hitters. There is plenty of room to miss the drives off the tee so the longer the better.

2021 Player Quotes

Dustin Johnson: "I knew it was going to be a tough day. There was a lot of really good players right around the lead. The conditions; it was really windy and hard to get it close to the hole. The greens are tricky and with the wind, too, you have to play some wind, so it was definitely hard to get a really good line." (Round 4)

Ian Poulter: "It's the type of grass. Paspalum, that's a very -- so the grass goes all over the place. It's a strong grass. They (the greens) are immaculate compared to last week. I didn't think the greens were great at HSBC Abu Dhabi. I thought they were a bit soft, spongy. They (Saudi) are probably the best-looking surface of the three."

In-play

2022 LIV Golf Jeddah In-Play Blog

15th October 2022, 8:20pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Uihlein	-12
Koepka	-11
Schwartzel	-9
Garcia	-9
Ancer	-8
Casey	-8

Round 2 Summary

Peter Uihlein fired a best of the day 63 to take a one shot lead into the final round of LIV Golf Jeddah. Conditions were breezy but players were still able to make plenty of birdies.

Round 2 Weather

Sunny with wind of 9-11mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Brooks Koepka remains the favourite with the bookies, with a best price of 3/1 available. A scrappy start allowed others to catch up but he played well for the majority of round two and he's expected to go close tomorrow.

Peter Uihlein is 2nd favourite at 10/3. We tipped Uihlein to subscribers at 66/1 pre-event and he was also yesterday's 50/1 in-play tip. He's therefore the man we want to win tomorrow and we'll be hoping for a fast start. The American put in good showings at LIV Golf Chicago and the Dunhill Links Championship so this week's performance is no surprise. His play has been at a high level for a few weeks, the question will be whether he can handle the pressure.

Uihlein led going into the final round of the Chitimacha Louisiana Open in March this year but could only manage a final round 70 and lost out in the playoff to Carl Yuan. It was a similar story at the Utah Championship in August last year. However, Uihlein did win from the front at the MGM Resorts Championship in April last year.

It should be mentioned that Uihlein will play with his good friend Koepka. This will also be the 3rd time he has played in the final group on a Sunday in LIV events and he should be much more comfortable with what is expected. He is capable of getting the job done.

Sergio Garcia is 3rd in the betting at 8/1 and is a definite threat. The Spaniard had the ball on a string in round two and such was the quality of his approach play, he could have easily been two or three shots better off had the putter warmed up. He's carrying a knee injury though and 8/1 is no more than fair.

Where is the value?

It's encouraging for us that the past four winners of the Saudi International have led going into the final round. However, it should be noted that Bubba Watson mounted a final round charge from six shots back at this year's Saudi International. Only a 100ft eagle putt from Harold Varner III prevented him from forcing a playoff. Given our existing position on Uihlein it makes sense to look at who may emerge from the pack.

Round 3 Bet

0.5pts Each Way Sihwan Kim 125/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-3)

Kim was on our radar pre-event and we're certainly going to add him to our roster going into the final round at generous odds of 125/1. He won twice at the start of the year on the Asian Tour, the first of which came with a final round 63. He's a player who is capable of low scoring once he gets on a roll and triple figure odds when he's only five shots back are worth taking.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

14th October 2022, 4:10pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Koepka	-8
Schwartzel	-6
Tanihara	-5
Reed	-5
Uihlein	-5

Round 1 Summary

Players enjoyed relatively calm conditions at Royal Greens G&CC for the opening round of LIV Golf Jeddah and Brooks Koepka took full advantage with a bogey free round of 62.

Round 2 Weather

Cloudy with wind of 9-11mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Brooks Koepka is a best price 10/3 and that's a price that is tempting given the quality of his play on day one. The one concern about backing such a short price is the fact previous tournaments held at Royal Greens G&CC have shown players further down the leaderboard can play catch up.

Patrick Reed is 9/1 2nd favourite and not without his positives. He was 2nd in the last LIV event and appears to be finding some form as the season draws to a close. The concern would be he's played in all four editions of the Saudi International and never bettered 38th. Can he keep up his scoring over the next two days?

Where is the value?

Peter Uihlein and Hideto Tanihara appear to be disrespected in the betting given odds of 50/1 are available at the time of writing.

Round 2 Bet

1pt Each Way Peter Uihlein 50/1 @ BetVictor (1/4 1-4)

We're on Uihlein pre-event at 66/1 but we can't ignore the 50/1 available with BetVictor. A runner up only three starts ago at LIV Chicago, he's also posted a 10th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links since. The slight concern pre-event was his lack of course knowledge compared to others but that didn't hinder him in the opening round and he's expected to improve over the final two rounds.