Preview
Course Info
Designer: Paul Rolin
Type of Course: Parkland.
Used Since: 2018 and 2019 only.
Fairways: Average, flat.
Greens: 80% Bentgrass, 20% POA
Par 5's: 5th & 17th
Premium on: Tee to Green and Recent Form
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This course was used for the Belgian Knockout event held on the European Tour in 2018 and 2019. Those events were 36 holes of stroke play followed by 9 hole knockout matches over the weekend but this week will revert to a traditional 72 hole strokeplay event.
This week's course has thirteen par 4s!
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Late-Early starters look to have a slight advantage as Friday morning the wind is only around 7mph reaching 13mph in the afternoon.
Thursday
Sunny intervals with a wind of 11mph.
Friday
Sunny with a max wind of 13mph.
Saturday
Sunny with a max wind of 7mph.
Sunday
Sunny with a max wind of 9mph.
Trends
Winning score
The last two editions weren't 72 hole stroke play events but after 36 holes the leading scores were 12 under par and 8 under par. We should expect somewhere in the late teens to be winning this week.
Winners Ranking
Slightly less relevant this week due to the format change but winners of the Belgian Knockout were ranked 99th (Otaegui) and 203rd (Migliozzi).
Correlating Courses
N/A
Course form
Migliozzi nor Otaegui had played the course before their wins.
Recent form
Otaegui arrived in hot form including a 2nd on his previous start and Migliozzi also arrived in consistent form having won earlier in the season also. Leaders after halfway, Chris Paisley and Jorge Campillo, were also in strong form coming into the events in 2018/19. Recent form does appear to be important.
Stats Analysis
We only have strokes gained stats from the 2019 edition so we will focus on the 36 hole strokeplay leader stats (Chris Paisley) and the eventual knockout winner's stats. (Guido Migliozzi)
SG: Tee to Green
2019 winner Migliozzi was ranked 2nd. 36 hole leader Chris paisley was ranked 3rd.
SG: Approach
2019 winner Migliozzi was ranked 35th. 36 hole leader Chris paisley was ranked 4th.
SG: Off The Tee
2019 winner Migliozzi was ranked 1st off the tee. 36 hole leader Chris paisley was ranked 45th.
SG: Around The Green
2019 winner Migliozzi was ranked 17th. 36 hole leader Chris paisley was ranked 48th.
SG: Putting
2019 winner Migliozzi was ranked 76th. 36 hole leader Chris paisley was ranked 5th.
In Play
Birdie Holes
16th is a driveable par 4 and plays easier than the two par 5's.
Fast or Slow Start
No data to analyse due to knockout format in previous events.
Closing stretch
The 16th is driveable 344 yard par 4, 17th is a 568 yard par 5 and the 18th is a 424 yard par 4.
In-play
Soudal Open In-Play Blog
15 May 2022, 11:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fox |
-11 |
| Horsfield |
-10 |
| Paul |
-9 |
| Bekker |
-8 |
| Schneider |
-8 |
| Zanotti |
-8 |
| Kearney |
-8 |
Ryan Fox has assumed control at the top of the leaderboard and will be aiming to win for the 2nd time this season.
Fox admitted to having nerves when he held the 54 hole lead at the Ras al Khaimah Classic earlier this season and much will depend on how he starts today. He had the luxury of a six shot lead on that occasion but he will have little room for error today given Sam Horsfield is a shot back. We're not keen to back the leader at 2/1.
Horsfield was boosted by an invitation to the US PGA Championship and appears to be riding the momentum into this week. He's priced up at 13/5 and whilst he's marginally preferred to Fox, we shouldn't forget that he is capable of a poor round on a Sunday. He disappointed at the DP World Tour Championship in December.
In 3rd place is Yannik Paul (9/1). The German was our 80/1 pre-event selection and we´ll be cheering him on, He´s yet to win on the DP World Tour but his approach play has been excellent all week and if he can control his nerves, he has a chance.
Conditions look perfect for the final round so we should see a perfect day for scoring.
Round 4 Bet
We'll be cheering on Yannik Paul in today´s final round. Several players (Schmid, Campillo and Sullivan) in the group at 7 under par were considered, but ultimately the each way place terms and odds weren't attractive enough. We'll monitor their start and potentially look to get involved in-play.
13 May 2022, 6:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Whitnell |
-8 |
| Horsfield |
-8 |
| Schmid |
-8 |
| Santos |
-7 |
| Mansell |
-7 |
| Six players tied |
-6 |
We have a congested leaderboard with 28 players within four of the lead. Sam Horsfield looked to have given up his favouritism but played his back nine in four under par to share the lead. He is now 4/1 to get the job done.
Of course he is the best player on the head of the leaderboard, but this course has been catching just about everyone out at some stage and 4/1 makes no appeal. Matti Schmid played beautifully today and would be favoured at double the price. He looks a winner in waiting and has a great chance to do so on a course that suits.
Conditions look perfect for tomorrow so we should see low scoring and one who could go well is Hennie Du Plessis, who has finished 2nd, 3rd and 6th in his last four starts. He shot a final round 64 on Sunday at the Catalunya Championship two weeks ago but odds of 25/1 seem more fair than value. There is one man on the same score we prefer at 40/1.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way J C Ritchie 40/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Ritchie has thrown himself into the mix with a 66 and was high on our shortlist at the start of the week. He finished 8th last week at the Belfry and has had a great year on the Challenge Tour with two wins this season. That winning feeling is an important factor on the DP World Tour where we often see players fail to handle the pressure on Sunday. Although Ritchie has yet to get off the mark on the main tour, he is a player we expect to cope better than most with his eight African wins, and 40/1 seems more than fair.
12 May 2022, 8:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Whitnell |
-6 |
| Horsfield |
-6 |
| Shinkwin |
-6 |
| Six players tied |
-5 |
The morning starters enjoyed much better conditions today with only one of the top nine starting in the afternoon. We should expect it to even out tomorrow slightly, although the breeze looks fairly consistent from 7am onwards.
Market favourites Sam Horsfield and Adrian Meronk have got off to a flier and are currently 5/1 and 9/1 favourites in the betting. Meronk ranked 1st tee to green whilst Horsfield was 3rd. It may be worth approaching the event with caution until the 2nd round plays out as both players are capable of creating a sizeable lead.
Gavin Green is worth keeping an eye on in-play at 50/1. He has improved a great deal in recent weeks and if his approach play can improve tomorrow, he is likely to score well. At the time of writing, no 2nd Round Leader market is available, but he may be one to consider with an early start.
Alvaro Quiros is still available at a massive 100/1 which was tempting given the type of player he is but whether he can put four rounds together is probably unlikely. If you're looking for the ultimate risk/reward bet, this is it! We will keep stakes low at this stage and add one former course champion here.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Guido Migliozzi 125/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Guido looked back to his old self for much of the round today so we are willing to chance his putter hots up tomorrow and he takes advantage of an early start. He ranked 8th off the tee and 9th GIR, in addition to ranking 1st tee to green here when he won the Belgian Knockout. It clearly fits his eye and can hopefully spark a comeback.
