Preview

Course Info

Type of Course - Modern Links, deep bunkers, wide fairways, thick rough.
Course Conditions - Modern Links, deep bunkers, wide fairways, thick rough.
Greens - Fescue
Par 5's - 3rd, 7th, 10th and 16th.
Last Played - Hosted Scottish Open last year.
Premium on - Approach play.

Weather Forecast

Summary

Temperatures will be as low as 8 degrees in the mornings rising to 12 degrees in the afternoons. Thursday should see some light winds with consistently 10mph-20mph from Friday onwards.

Thurs - Sunny intervals and gentle breeze. Wind 5-6mph.
Fri - Light rain and moderate breeze. Wind 7-12mph.
Sat - Light rain showers and moderate breeze. Wind 12-16mph.
Sun - Light rain and moderate breeze. Wind 12-14mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

A Rolex series event, this is the strongest European Tour field since lockdown.

 

Some of the holes have been switched so last years hole averages are not accurate. See our In-play guide for more details.

 

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. We saw Sebastian Soderberg withdraw last week as he had been in contact with someone outside the European Tour "bubble".

 

The Scottish Open has moved from its slot in July the week before the Open Championship. The course should play longer and tougher in colder conditions. See weather forecast below for full details.

Trends

We don't have any trends as the course was used first time in 2019, but we have a couple of pointers from last year.

Winning score

Last year was -22 but can be expected to be lower this year due to weather conditions.

Incoming form

Wiesberger arrived in great form as was 2nd at the Irish Open the week before, which might bode well for Aaron Rai! However, Hebert and Langasque were completely out of form so it's preferred but not essential.

Nationality

Andrew Johnston was the only British player in the top 8 last year and the last Brit to win the Scottish Open was Justin Rose in 2014.

Stats Analysis

Summary

SG: Off The Tee

Romain Langasque was the only player inside the top 8 in the top 10 SG: Off the tee.

SG: Approach

Wiesberger (1st) and Hebert (2nd) both ranked in the top 3 for SG: Approach last year, making it the most important category.

SG: Around The Greens

NONE of the top 8 ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Around the greens.

SG: Putting

Romain Langasque was the only player inside the top 8 in the top 10 SG: Putting.

In Play

Tough Holes

Par 4 8th was one of hardest holes in 2019. The 9th was 2nd hardest. The 475 yard Par 4 11th tricky. The Par 4 18th plays into the wind, and was toughest hole on course last year.

Birdie Holes

The 3rd is a reachable Par 5 for most. 5th is a driveable par 4 given the right conditions. 7th is a par 5 which was 2nd easiest hole in 2019. 10th reachable Par 5. 16th is reachable Par 5, easiest on course last year.

Fast or Slow Start

Nino Bertasio was the only player inside the top 11 after Round 1 who placed. Wiesberger and Hebert were both 4 shots back in 29th place after 18 holes. Hebert came from 7 back after 54 to make the playoff. It is possible to play catch up at The Renaissance Club.

Six To Watch

As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:

​Romain Langasque 45/1 - 888Sport
Romain did us a favour at the Wales Open earlier this summer in similar weather conditions to those forecast for this week and we expect him to go well again. Finished 3rd here last year after three missed cuts on the bounce, including a top 5 for SG: Putting which shows his liking for the greens. He is clearly striking the ball well enough at the moment as you don't finish 34th at a US Open or 17th at Valderrama if you're off your game. A proven bad weather player, he can emulate Sam Horsfield and John Catlin with his second post-lockdown win.

Joachim Lagergren - 55/1 @Bet365
We left the Swede out of the staking plan last week as his price had come in, but 55/1 is enough to tempt us this week, despite a stronger field. He arrives on the back of a 5th in Ireland and a 3rd in Portugal so will be extremely confident. We noted in the preview SG: Approach is the key stat this week and Joachim ranks 6th on the European Tour. He also has an unbelievable Dunhill Links record in Scotland with 3rd, 4th, 4th and 12th place finishes in the last 5 years. Missed cut here last year is the only negative but arrives in better control of his game and the positives outweigh the negative significantly.

Joost Luiten - 66/1 @Bet365
The Dutchman returned to form last week with an 11th place finish and there is enough juice in his price this week to keep an eye on him. if iron play is the name of the game, there are not too many better when he is firing on all cylinders. He ranks 7th for Par 3 scoring this season which is also a bonus considering there are five Par 3's.

Renato Paratore - 80/1 @ William Hill
We were surprised to see Renato priced up as high as 90/1 at the start of the week, given his performance at Winged Foot where he was 31st. That was a terrific display in elite company and he should return to a weaker field full of confidence. Finished 28th here last year after two missed cuts and has a 7th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Ranks 9th this year for SG: Approach which is a bonus.

Guido Migliozzi 100/1 - 888Sport
Another Italian gets the nod here. Guido was also 28th here last year after three missed cuts on the spin. It isn't the first time he has shown a liking for coastal golf courses after his 4th place in Oman earlier this year and he also showed he's capable in the wind, finishing 6th in his 2nd last start at Valderrama. A 36th place at the Portugal Masters followed and he should be suitably rested for the challenge.

Maverick Antcliff - 200/1 @Bet365
The young Australian has been on our radar for some time now and we were slightly disappointed not to have him onside last week for his 3rd place finish. The signs were there with his 9th place at the Open De Portugal and he seems to be getting more comfortable at this level. Ranked 6th for SG: Approach last week and 19th for the season so this course could play to his strengths. Three wins last year in China and a good experience in the mix last week should serve him well. ​

In-play

In-Play Blog

4th October 2020

-9 Rock
-7 Fleetwood
-7 Poulter
-7 Ormsby
-7 Kinhult

The weather won yesterday as heavy rain and a freshening wind throughout the afternoon saw players struggle.  Second round leader, Lucas Herbert, struggled to a 79 and it is Robert Rock who assumes the mantle today.

Rock had a disastrous third round 78 when in contention last week at the Irish Open which is enough to put us off.  He also led the 2019 Irish Open with a round to go and shot the joint worst score of anyone in the top 20.  He may well hang on but it worries us that he declined to speak to reporters after yesterday's round.

Tommy Fleetwood is the 5/2 bookmaker favourite and deservedly so.  He passed up several birdie chances yesterday and his ball striking was once again of the highest standard.  Windy conditions should suit him and he's the most likely winner in our view but 5/2 doesn't appeal given his putter still isn't fully behaving (95th Strokes Gained: Putting this week).

Of the rest of the chasing pack, Ian Poulter looked excellent yesterday until saturation point.  Wade Ormsby and Marcus Kinhult are both winners on Tour and are probably being dismissed too lightly.  With that said, both have been reliant on the putter so far this week and will need that to be working again.

Weather conditions should play a big part in the outcome today with rain and a strong breeze forecast.  The later starters will have the best of it and that probably rules out those players much further down the leaderboard.

1pt Each Way Robert McIntyre without Rock, Fleetwood and Poulter (1/4 1,2,3) - 20/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way Benjamin Hebert without Rock, Fleetwood and Poulter (1/4 1,2,3) - 20/1 @ Skybet

Bob and Benjamin dealt admirably with yesterday's tricky conditions, shooting 68 and 69 respectively.  They are both competent wind players and enjoy a links test.  Hebert shot a final round 62 at last year's Scottish Open to finish 2nd and whilst we won't see a score like that today, he can draw inspiration from it.  MacIntyre is an Amateur Championship runner up and the Scot will be more than used to playing in these conditions.  We considered both in the outright market but this is a safer play.

2nd October 2020

-11 Herbert
-10 Rock
-9 Westwood
-9 Poulter
-8 Lorenzo Vera

The tee time bias continued and Pablo Larrazabal is the only player on the AM-PM side of the draw who's in the top 12 following an impressive 64 this afternoon.

Lucas Herbert took the lead in the morning with a 65 and the reigning Dubai Desert Classic champion is the man to beat. That win came from off the pace and Herbert is yet to prove himself as a frontrunner so it will be interesting to see how he handles himself this weekend. 

Robert Rock will be looking to make amends for last Saturday's 78 at the Irish Open when he was in contention - but it was concerning and he's not for us this weekend.

Round one leader Lee Westwood could only manage a level par 70 and is joined by Ryder Cup teammate Ian Poulter on -9. They represent the biggest threat to Herbert. 

We look set for a traditional rainy Scottish day tomorrow so it could turn out to be a bit of a slog. We have identified three players we like from the chasing pack who could make a move into contention for Sunday. 

1pt Each Way Sami Valimaki (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 90/1 @ 888 Sport
1pt Each Way Rasmus Hojgaard (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Fabrizio Zanotti (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ William Hill

Rasmus is 7 shots off the pace so has a lot to do but we saw last year with Benjamin Hebert that ground can be made up fast here. We also saw today that the leader can be caught and overtaken quite easily. We emphasised the importance of SG: Approach in the preview and it's no surprise to see leader Herbert sitting 3rd in this category. Rasmus is 5th and could work his way up the leaderboard as bad weather puts more demands on good ball striking. 

Fabrizio is 2 shots better off at -6 and is also 11th for SG: Approach. The South American made his first appearance since lockdown at the Irish Open and showed just what he is capable of with a final round 63 to finish 7th. We have a feeling he may be able to sneak into the top 5 which would give us a nice each way return.

Sami has been selected for value as he is a proven winner and a more than capable wind player. Conditions can be expected to worsen this weekend and it won't bother the young Finn too much. Form figures of 6-2-10 before the US Open showed his liking for tough conditions at Celtic Manor and Valderrama, and the wind also blew hard in Oman for his win. 

1st October 2020

-9 Westwood
-8 Luiten
-8 Bjork
-7 Jamieson
-6 Rock
-6 Samooja
-6 C Lee

The afternoon starters enjoyed a huge advantage as they enjoyed warmer conditions and almost no breeze.  Only three players out of the top 23 were morning starters and none manged to finish the day inside the top 7.

Lee Westwood leads and takes market favouritism going into round 2.  He played superbly on day one but odds of 7/2 aren't favourable given the weather on Sunday is forecast to be wet and windy.

We saw last year that you don't need to be up with the leaders after the first round and there's probably a bit of value to be had by considering those players who have tee times in the morning wave given the calm conditions forecast.  Do remember that those out very early will experience the coldest of the weather though.

Out of our Six To Watch, 66/1 Joost Luiten fared best and goes into day two only one shot off the pace.  

1pt Each Way Nicolas Colsearts (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 150/1 @ 888 Sport

Nico played nicely during round one, ranking 1st for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 30th for Strokes Gained: Approach.  He has a later tee time in the morning wave so should have optimum conditions to make progress up the leaderboard.  Let's not forget he won the Open de France in October last year and he has a couple of 3rd place finishes at the Scottish Open in years gone by (albeit different courses).  He's six shots behind Lee Westwood but his price is big enough to merit the risk.