Saudi International 2021

Event Info

Starts: 4 February 2021
Course: Royal Greens G&CC, Saudi Arabia
Par: 70 (35-35)
Length: 7,010 yards
2020 Champion: Graeme McDowell

Results

Overall Profit/Loss: -6.58pts

Pre-Event Bets: -7.08pts

1pt EW Shane Lowry (1/5 1-8) - 50/1 @ Skybet
1pt EW Thomas Pieters (1/5 1-8) - 50/1 @ Skybet
1pt EW Antoine Rozner (1/5 1-8) - 80/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Ashun Wu (1/5 1-8) - 250/1 @ Skybet

0.5pts EW Ryan Fox FRL (1/4 1-5) - 90/1 @ William Hill
0.5pts EW Dean Burmester FRL (1/5 1-6) - 110/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Justin Harding FRL (1/5 1-6) - 110/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Kurt Kitiyama FRL (1/4 1-5) - 110/1 @ Bet365

In-Play Bets: +0.5pts

4 February 2021 (-3pts)
0.5pts EW Ian Poulter (1/5 1-5) - 100/1 @ Skybet
0.5ptsEW Fabrizio Zanotti (1/5 1-5) - 150/1 @ Skybet
0.5ptsEW Kurt Kitayama (1/5 1-5) - 150/1 @ Skybet

5 February 2021 (+4.5pts)
1.5ptsEW Victor Perez (1/5 1-5) - 20/1 @ Betfair

6 February 2021 (-1pts)
1pt Tyrrell Hatton Win Only - 10/1 @ Betfair

Course Notes 2021

Draw Bias
In 2021, the wind was much stronger Thursday afternoon, then on Friday the morning starters had rain and wind all morning before the weather calmed down slightly for the afternoon starters. As a result, none of the PM-AM draw were in the top 10 at halfway and none of the top 5 at the end of the tournament played PM-AM.

First Round Leader Market
If similar wind forecast for Thursday, focus on the morning starters. Horsey and Gallacher were 100/1+.

The cream will rise
Out of the top 5, only Calum Hill was outside the top 40 in the world rankings.

Bombers Paradise
Once again, the course proved a perfect fit for long hitters like DJ and Ryan Fox. The leaderboard was packed with big hitters. There is plenty of room to miss the drives off the tee so the longer the better.

Player Notes

DUSTIN JOHNSON: I knew it was going to be a tough day. There was a lot of really good players right around the lead. The conditions; it was really windy and hard to get it close to the hole. The greens are tricky and with the wind, too, you have to play some wind, so it was definitely hard to get a really good line. (Round 4)

A lot of people are saying they are not holding putts. Is it the conditions?
IAN POULTER: It's the type of grass. Paspalum, that's a very -- so the grass goes all over the place. It's a strong grass. They (the greens) are immaculate compared to last week. I didn't think the greens were great at HSBC Abu Dhabi. I thought they were a bit soft, spongy. They (Saudi) are probably the best-looking surface of the three.

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Dave Sampson
Type of Course: Short, Coastal
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Narrow-Average
Rough: Thicker in 2020 than 2019.
Greens: Royal Dynasty Paspalum
Water Hazards: 2,3,9,13,18
Par 5's: 4th, 18th
Premium on: Strong wind players

Weather Forecast

Sunny every day apart from Friday. Morning showers expected with light rain steady in the afternoon.

Thurs: Sunny and strong breeze. Winds of 15-25mph,
Fri: Showers and moderate breeze. Winds of 10-20mph.
Sat: Sunny and moderate breeze. Winds of 10-15mph.
Sun: Sunny and moderate breeze. Winds of 10-15mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This is a rare week that features many PGA Tour stars on the European Tour. Large appearance fees are given to the likes of Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau (to name a few) to play.

Wind is usually the course's defence here.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. This is a rare week that features many PGA Tour stars on the European Tour. Large appearance fees are given to the likes of Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau (to name a few) to play.

Trends

Winning score
McDowell won with -12 last year but Dustin Johnson won with -19 in 2019. Given the quality of the field we can probably expect it to be closer to -19 again.

Price of Winner
Both winners have been under 100/1.

Correlating Courses
Al Mouj Golf Course (Oman Open) is also laid with Paspalum Grass. We should look for comfortable links players, perhaps due to the strong winds that tend to arrive.

Course form
Since there has only been two editions, it is hard to tell yet how important course form is. Dustin Johnson backed up his win with a 2nd in 2020 but McDowell and Mickelson (3rd) were both making their debuts. It's not a necessity to win here.

Recent form
McDowell had a 4th place finish at the Sony Open in 2020 a few weeks before his win but missed his previous cut in Dubai. Dustin (2nd) had finished 7th at the Tournament of Champions beforehand. In 2019, Dustin arrived in hot form with 16-4 already that year. Tong Li (2nd) had finished 12th the week before. We should look for some form already shown in 2021.

Nationality
Last two winners were American and Northern Irish

Stats Analysis

Strokes Gained stats are available since 2019 but don't include PGA Tour players like Dustin Johnson. McDowell showed you could putt your way to victory here as his other stats weren't anything special. Ignoring McDowell, driving distance seems a massive advantage here.

Driving Distance
McDowell only ranked 47th in 2020 but Green and Pieters ranked top 10. In 2019 the top 5 all ranked 1st-13th.

SG: Off The Tee
In 2020, McDowell was 36th but Green (3rd) ranked 3rd. In 2019, three of the top six ranked in the top 10 for this category.

SG: Approach
McDowell was 32nd in 2020. Pieters (3rd) was 1st. Tom Lewis (3rd) ranked 4th for approach in 2019 but the rest of the top 10 didn't rank highly.

SG: Around the greens
McDowell was 19th but Green (3rd) was 81st. Lee and Li scrambled well in 2019 finishing 8th and 9th in this category.

SG: Putting
McDowell was a putting masterclass last year finish 5th in this category. Three of the top six ranked top 10.

In Play

Tough Holes
Long par 4's 9th and 13th traditionally play as the hardest on the course and averaged over 4.25 last year.

Birdie Holes
The two par 5s (4th and 18th), played the easiest last year and need to be taken advantage of. 7th and 10th (both short Par 4's) played next easiest.

Fast or Slow Start
McDowell led after round 1 and was always near the top. Pieters came from 6 back on day 1 to finish 3rd though. In 2019, DJ was 5 back after round 1 and Tong Li (2nd) was 4 shots back. Catch up is possible around here.

Closing stretch
The 17th and 18th rank among the five easiest holes on the course. 17 is a driveable par 4 for the long hitters and 18 is 2nd easiest hole on course.

Pre-Event Bets

1pt EW (1/5, 8 places) Shane Lowry 50/1 @ Skybet

Full tips will be up tomorrow but this price isn't likely to last. We are expecting plenty of wind this week and showers on Friday and we want someone onside who can cope with the elements. It is a strong field this week but Lowry can mix it with the best of them when he is on song and there's signs he isn't too far off a big performance. Ball striking stats have been good recently and he had three good rounds last week before tailing off on Sunday. He was 13th here last year when fellow Irishman Graeme McDowell won and we fancy him to improve on that for at least a place this year.

1pt Each Way (1/5 1-8) Thomas Pieters 50/1 @ Skybet

The big hitting Belgian was 3rd here last year following a 22nd place in 2019. He played the final three rounds in 3 shots less than winner McDowell including a final round 65, so if he can get off to a faster start this week he can contend. Thomas wont be overawed by the strong field as has several major and WGC top 10 finishes. Warmed up nicely with steady but not eye catching performances in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. After injuring his hand over the holidays, he seems fully recovered now and can have a strong week at a course he loves.

1pt Each Way (1/5 1-8) Antoine Rozner 80/1 @ Betfair

We are big fans of the Frenchman and think he is a future Ryder Cup player. He won in Dubai at the end of last year and has started this year in strong form as well – 16th in Abu Dhabi and 9th in Dubai last week. He clearly loves his golf in this part of the world and he is trending in the right direction. He has a 2nd place finish in Mauritius and a 10th in Oman which are two coastal courses that correlate nicely to here. Back Antoine to go a step better than last week and land a place.

0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1-8) Ashun Wu 250/1 @ Skybet

Ashun was 13th here last year, which was a terrific performance after losing a chance to win the Dubai Desert Classic the previous week. He reaffirmed his love for golf in this part of the world last week, finishing 9th and ranking 4th for approach play. He is three time winner on tour and generally a confidence player.

FIRST ROUND LEADER Tips

The wind is due to pick up as the day goes on tomorrow so we want to have a few plays on potential fast starters with early tee times.

0.5pts Each Way (1/4 1-5) Ryan Fox 90/1 @ William Hill

Ryan showed signs he is returning to form last week. He has played this course twice finishing 27th and 6th, with an average of 66.5 on Round 1. He has been in the top 10 after round 1 in two of his last seven starts. Ryan is a strong links player which we think should be a nice fit for this course.

0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1-6) Dean Burmester 110/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

Dean is an all or nothing type player and evidence of this is eight of his last eleven round one performances, he has been outside the top 50, bug the other 3 he finished 1st, 2nd and 1st. With an 11th place finish here last year, we know he can perform on this course and expect him to fly out the traps tomorrow.

0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1-6) Justin Harding 110/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

Justin also averages 66.5 for his first two round one performances year to date. He was 3rd after round one last week and was a first round leader only 6 starts ago. Although he should escape most of the strong wind, he is comfortable should the breeze kick up early.

0.5pts Each Way (1/4 1-5) Kurt Kitayama 110/1 @ Bet365

Kurt was one of our outright selections last week and finishes 20th place. He was 2nd after round one and the week before in Abu Dhabi he was 7th after 18 holes, so he is enjoying his golf on Thursdays. A winner previously in Oman which has the same grass laid on the greens and also a winner in Mauritius, a similar coastal track.

In-play

In-Play Blog

6 February 2021, 5pm

Player	Total
Johnson	-13
Perez	-11
Hatton	-10
Finau	-10
Kjeldsen	-10
Sullivan	-10

With joint leaders Stephen Gallacher and Ryan Fox both going round in over par, Dustin Johnson capitalised and takes a two shot lead into the final round after a 66. DJ could have been further ahead but for a double bogey on 13 and missing a short eagle putt on 18.

Our 20/1 in-play selection Victor Perez is now his closest rival, but the bookies rate Tyrrell Hatton and Tony Finau the main dangers at 10/1. Victor Hovland is not out of it yet at -9 and that group is full of danger should DJ give them a chance.

DJ ranks 2nd for SG: Tee to green and it's really hard to make a case against him. He has picked up exactly where he left off last year and doesn't even look like he's left 3rd gear. With no major wind forecast, you would think someone is going to have to go really low as DJ should get to a minimum of -16 under.

On the PGA Tour we would normally be looking to oppose Finau, but it's possible he could feel a little less pressure in a European Tour event with all expectations on DJ winning. It will be a great experience for Perez playing with the world number one and he showed at the BMW Championship that he won't shy away. However, given he is currently one of the best closers in the game, it is the man who defeated Perez at Wentworth who we feel is worth a small play tomorrow.

Sunday's Bet

1PT TYRRELL HATTON 9/1 @ Betfair (Win Only)

We're in a good position with Perez but would like to strengthen our position slightly. As mentioned, we will keep the stakes low as it relies on DJ having an off day, but 10/1 for one of the best closers in golf currently is worth a small play. Four wins in his last 21 starts means it's becoming a habit for Tyrrell and he was relentless in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago. Confidence will be riding high and should he get off to a fast start, DJ will know he's under serious pressure from a player who won't let up. Carlos Ortiz showed in November that DJ is beatable at the moment despite his consistency. so let's hope it's not one of his better days tomorrow

+ - Saturday Click to collapse

5 February 2021, 7:30pm

Player	Total
Fox	-10
Gallacher (thru 13)	-10
Wiesberger	-8
Sullivan	-8
Kinhult (thru 16)	-8
Johnson (thru 14)	-8

As expected, the AM-PM draw has had a massive bias with the favourable weather conditions and as a result there isn't a player from the morning wave today in the top 10.

Play has been suspended with several players, including joint leader Stephen Gallacher, still to complete their 2nd rounds. Pre-tournament favourite and current favourite (2/1) Dustin Johnson is at eight under in the middle of the fairway on 15, which is starting to look ominous for the field.

Fleetwood and Rose lurk at -7, while Finau, Hatton and Hovland sit at -6. Hovland's performance in particular is impressive as he has played in the worst of the conditions and we wouldn't put anyone off him at 20/1 currently.

With no stats available, picking someone to take DJ on is a tough task but we have identified one man capable of challenging over the weekend.

Saturday's Bets

1.5pts Each Way VICTOR PEREZ 20/1 @Betfair (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Victor has charged through the field with six birdies in his last 10 holes and has a 3ft putt for another on 14 when he resumes, to get to 8 under. The Frenchman is a dangerous player once he gets some momentum, and he doesn't mind a bit of wind either should it blow over the weekend. He challenged strongly for the Rolex Series BMW Championship last October, finishing 2nd to Tyrell Hatton and is starting to feel comfortable at this level. Ranked 35th in the world, he is a danger and might even be leading by the time round 2 is finished. Take the 20/1 each way, or 25+ on the exchange is excellent value.

+ - Friday Click to collapse

4 February 2021, 7:30pm

Player	Total
Horsey	-9
Gallacher	-8
Wiesberger	-6
Six Players Tied	-5

David Horsey skipped round in 61 this morning, having being on 59 watch playing the par 5 18th. He could only manage a par and Stephen Gallacher got within one with six birdies in his last eight holes.

As expected, the wind then picked up and none of the afternoon starters could better 67. It was a draw bias of over 2 shots and means the top 16 were all morning starters. The news doesn't get any better for those on the wrong half of the draw - the wind is meant to consistently blow tomorrow and they may have to contend with showers as well.

Our pre-event picks are in good shape as we took a leap of faith that the AM-PM draw would gain an advantage. Thomas Pieters is best in 4th place and we are optimistic he can get into a good position for the weekend.

With doubts over when the rain showers will come tomorrow, we have selected one morning starter and two from the afternoon in search of some early each way value.

Friday's Bets

0.5Ppts Each Way IAN POULTER 100/1 @Skybet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Ian had one of the best scores of the afternoon and is currently 3 under. Despite playing in the stronger wind, he ranked 1st for SG: Tee to green. He won't mind a bit more wind tomorrow and the rain shouldn't phase him much either. He is a strong links player which previous winners here have been. Finally, he may just take some inspiration off Paul Casey winning last week and will be keen to get some more Ryder Cup points on board.

0.5Ppts Each Way KURT KITAYAMA 150/1 @Skybet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

We put Kurt up pre-event last week in Dubai but a cold putter meant he could only finish 20th. We also put him up for first round leader for this week and he fell just short of the places by two shots. The putter was the problem again but he has had success on these surfaces before and we can expect him to improve. He is setting up loads of birdie opportunities and the chances are he will eventually start converting some.

0.5Ppts Each Way FABRIZIO ZANOTTI 150/1 @Skybet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Fabrizio is one shot better than Kitayama at 4 under par and is being underestimated at 150/1. He has started the season strongly with a 7th at Abu Dhabi and 27th last week in Dubai, so we know he is in control of his game. 7th place in Ireland last year shows us he can play in a bit of wind and a 2nd in Oman in 2019 is a nice bonus on a course which correlates nicely to here.

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