Event Info
Starts: 3rd February 2022
Course: Al Hamra GC
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,325 yards
2021 Champion: New Event
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -13pts
Pre-Event Bets: -11pts
1.25pts Each Way Ryan Fox 40/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
1pt Each Way Kalle Samooja 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts Each Way Grant Forrest 66/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts Each Way Daniel Van Tonder 110/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Justin Walters 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts Each Way Angel Hidalgo 175/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.25pts Each Way Ross McGowan 500/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
1.5pts Marcel Schneider Top 20 13/2 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -2pts
3 February 2022 (-2pts)
0.5pts Each Way Thirston Lawrence 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Alfredo Garcia-Heradia 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Peter Harradine
Fairways: Wider than average
Rough: Average/Minimal
Greens: Paspalum
Water Hazards: Featured throughout
Par 5's: 3rd, 8th, 14th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2022
Premium on: Length
Weather Forecast
Summary
Warm and sunny all four days. Wind picks up slightyl in the afternoon each day.
Thurs: Sunny. Max wind 11mph.
Fri: Sunny. Max wind 10mph.
Sat: Sunny. Max wind 11mph.
Sun: Sunny. Max wind 13mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
- This is a new event on the DP World Tour. However, the course did host a Challenge Tour event between 2016-2018.
- Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning score
Between 2016 and 2018, the winning scores were -17, -15 and -20. We'd expect to see scoring around -20 this week given conditions and course setup.
Recent form
Two of the three winners of the Challenge Tour events played here were in good form prior to their win. Only Jordan Smith came in when out of form (missed his two previous cuts).
Winning Nationality
The three Challenge Tour events hosted here have generated three different nationalities. A Spaniard, a Swede and an Englishman have won here.
Stats Analysis
With this being a new course, we do not consider previous stats. However, with minimal rough we see longer hitters thriving this week.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 9th an 10th play as the toughest holes on the scorecard.
Birdie Holes
The first five holes will see plenty of birdies and we should expect players starting on the first tee to get off to a hot start.
Fast or Slow Start
Adri Arnaus won the Challenge Tour event in 2018 when shooting a 66 in round 1 to jointly lead. In contrast, Jens Dantorp was 7 shots back in 2017 when he opened with a 71. Finally, Jordan Smith won in 2016 when firing an opening 69 to lie four back after the opening round.
Closing stretch
The last hole is a 576 yard par 5. It is a real risk or reward par 5 as water runs all the way down the right hand side. A great finishing hole!
Player Quotes
“It’s a great place with amazing weather and the golf course is stunning." Sebastian Soderberg, 2018
“This is my first time in Ras Al Khaimah and I’m really impressed with the place. Al Hamra Golf Club is really nice; it’s a good course with a great design and has been kept in really good shape. You need to hit it long and straight as it’s a long course but it’s really special.” Antoine Rozner, 2018
“Not a day goes by where I don’t think about how important my Ras Al Khaimah win was in getting me to where I am today.” Jordan Smith, 2017
"I’m feeling good. The weather is perfect, the course is perfect, I love the course – it sets up perfectly for me I think. It’s very fair and if you play well off the tee you make it a lot easier. The greens are quite small, if you miss them it can be difficult to get up and down because there’s lots of grain outside the green, but if you play well you can score low." Francesco Laporta, 2017
"The course is quite young I think but the design is very fun to play because you can make a lot of birdies but there’s strategy involved and you have to be patient too. You have to be aggressive round here too, which is my natural game too – it suits me perfectly because I don’t have to change my style, I like that. It’s a really fun place to play, and I played really well, I liked the course, so that’s two really good rounds to start this event and we will now have to see how the weekend goes.” Romain Langasque, 2016
"The course is good and quite long, which is nice for me – I’m not short off the tee so I think that’s quite an advantage this week." Joel Stalter, 2016
"Everyone I have spoken to has said that the course this week is really nice. They have told me it is really wide and long, which doesn’t suit me too much." Steven Brown, 2016
"It feels very similar to that win in Egypt – Ras Al Khaimah and this course remind me a lot of that week, which is probably a good thing. I sweat just as much as anybody else but the heat seems to suit me." Jordan Smith, 2016
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Jordan Smith 22/1
Jordan is a past winner at Al Hamra GC and his long game stats were fantastic last week in Dubai. A lot to like but he price was just too short.
Romain Langasque 25/1
A similar story with Romain, excellent recent stats and a solid course record. Would have liked him more if the forecast showed more wind.
Padraig Harrington 60/1
His recent form has been exceptional and 2nd SG: Tee to Green last week. Question mark over whether he can hole enough putts to win this week.
Thorbjorn Olesen 60/1
We were on him last week and the putter was cold, could certainly contend this week but decided he might be a better play for next week.
Max Kieffer 175/1
The price was a huge draw for someone who came close to winning on Tour last year. Putter hasn't warmed up yet and that was enough to sway us.
In-play
2022 Ras al Khaimah Championship In-Play Blog
5 February 2022, 7:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| N Hojgaard | -20 |
| Law | -17 |
| Pulkannen | -16 |
| Bekker | -15 |
| Four Players Tied | -14 |
It's all change again at the top as Nicolai Hojgaard has opened up a three shot lead at the top of the leaderboard.
The young Dane is a best price 4/9 to convert from here and it's hard to build a case against him. His length has been an enormous asset this week, his scores improving each day as he gains confidence.
Hojgaard has one win to his name in his fledgling career and whilst he's relatively inexperienced in contention, he showed when winning the Italian Open that he could convert from the front. It's hard to see him not shooting a couple under par at the very least and the chasers will require something special to catch him.
Conditions for the final round will be sunny with the wind peaking around 15mph.
Round 4 Bet
- No Bet
It's hard to see past Nicolai Hojgaard but odds of 4/9 make no appeal and we are happy to focus our attention on the Saudi International where we have 66/1 selection Harold Varner III leading the way.
4 February 2022, 5:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Law | -14 |
| Hojgaard | -12 |
| Otaegui | -10 |
| Four Players Tied | -9 |
David Law flew out of the traps this morning racing to 14 under par and it was good enough to lead by two heading into the weekend. He is 10/3 to convert but the market favourite is Nicolai Hojgaard who is two back at odds of 11/4.
Law's approach play has been on fire both days, gaining over three strokes each day with his irons. It is hard to pick many holes in his play so far but a couple of short missed putts on his closing nine are enough to suggest he may feel some nerves over the weekend. We will rest easy if he goes on to win at 10/3
Hojgaard is expected to make up the deficit and his power off the tee gives him an advantage over his peers most holes, hitting shorter irons in to the greens. If he can keep that level of tee to green excellence up, he will be hard to catch. Given the possibility of low scores from the chasing pack, 11/4 makes no appeal for us.
There are 22 players in the group between 7 and 10 under par and as Adrian Otaegui showed today, they will all have a chance of making a significant move if the putter gets hot. Deciding who is the tricky bit and with Thomas Detry and Jordan Smith dangerously lurking, they're doesn't appear to be a lot of each way value available.
We are happy to see how round 3 plays out before looking for value in the final round.
Round 3 Bet
- No Bet
If you are really keen for a bet Jordan Smith is in a fantastic position now and driving the ball superbly. He may be much shorter than 12/1 tomorrow but we have concerns on him closing it out so we will not be getting involved.
3 February 2022, 8:20pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Jamieson | -7 |
| Heisele | -7 |
| Law | -6 |
| Detry | -6 |
| Veerman | -6 |
| Stone | -6 |
Scott Jamieson and Sebastian Heisele posted morning 65's and the afternoon starters were unable to match them, despite Thomas Detry's best attempt.
The Belgian matched their score through 14 holes but the wind picked up during his back nine and he could only finish in one over par. He is still regarded as 7/1 favourite now and with conditions expected to favour the morning starters again, it is a tempting price.
Johannes Veerman is next in the betting at 9/1 and by the way he is talking, he is extremely happy with where his game is at. He seems to be over his jet lag last week and has taken a lot of confidence from his win last year. The afternoon wind due is enough to put us off at single figures.
Jamieson appears to have taken his game to another level this year and is without a doubt a danger, while Heisele is still on the road to recovery following some surgery last year.
This event feels wide open still, with Wiesberger disappointing and the rest of the market favourites starting slow. We will add two plays from the morning pack that we believe has been overpriced.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Thirston Lawrence 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Lawrence famously won the Joburg Open last year which was reduced to 36 holes. He has started nicely with a 69 and ranked 4th for greens in regulation and 9th tee to green. An improvement with the putter tomorrow should see him go low and we think 150/1 is worth a small each way investment. Note at the time of writing he is available at 300 on Betfair Exchange which is extremely disrespectful.
- 0.5pts Each Way Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Alfredo is on the same score and was bogey free yesterday. The Spaniard had an exceptional year on the Challenge Tour last year with a win and four other top 5's and has the ability to compete in this field. We're happy to chance he makes a step up this week at 150/1.
