Preview
Course Info
Designer: Peter Harradine
Type of Course: Desert
Used Since: 1998
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Minimal
Greens: Sizeable, contoured
Par 5's: 1st, 9th, 10th & 18th
Premium on: Wind play/desert form
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The tour returns to the UAE after a few weeks in Africa. Be aware that Doha GC is the host course this year. It hosted the event between 1998-2019.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The greens have now changed to Paspalum grass.
Weather Forecast
Wind is set to affect the event this week with the late-early starters in round 1 and 2 likely to have an advantage.
Thursday
Sunny. Winds of 7-11mph.
Friday
Sunny. Winds of 12-18mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Winds of 18-24mph.
Sunday
Sunny. Winds of 21-24mph.
Trends
Winning score
between 2006 and 2019, the winning score was between -13 and -20. Given the weather forecast we could see a much tougher test this week.
World Ranking
Winners at Doha between 2019 and 2009 were ranked 74-154-60-11-79-11-142-78-134-31-74 (most recent first). However, we should remember that this event used to attract a much higher class of field.
Correlating Courses
We shouldn't totally dismiss Education City form, Jorge Campillo was 2nd at Doha before winning at Education City. Several other players have top 10 finishes at both venues.
Course form
2019 and 2017 winners, Justin Harding and Jeung-Hun Wang, were making their debuts at Doha but every other champion between 2019 and 2010 had previously had a top 15 finish.
Recent form
Justin Harding is the only player between 2009 and 2019 to have missed the cut in the week prior to his win. Five of the last eleven winners had posted a top 20 the week before winning.
Nationality
No nationality has dominated throughout the years at Doha but there have been six South African victories.
Stats Analysis
Note - We have limited Strokes Gained Data.
Driving Distance
Rankings of past five winners at Doha GC have been 31-77-37-8-11 (most recent first).
Driving Accuracy
Rankings of past five winners at Doha GC have been 20-3-40-76-106 (most recent first).
Greens in Regulation
Rankings of past five winners at Doha GC have been 50-16-26-30-7 (most recent first).
Scrambling
Rankings of past three winners at Doha GC have been 13-9-7 (most recent first).
Putts Per GIR
Rankings of past five winners at Doha GC have been 10-9-15-5-2 (most recent first).
In Play
Tough Holes
The par 4 14th hole played as the hardest hole in 2019. The 11th, 13th and 15th played as the next three hardest so beware when betting in play.
Birdie Holes
The driveable par 4 16th played as the easiest in 2019 followed by the four par 5s.
Fast or Slow Start
Much can depend on the weather. The past two champions at Doha GC have been inside the top 3 after the opening round. However, the two champions before that were all outside the top 20.
Closing stretch
The 16th and 18th were the two easiest holes on the course in 2019.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Kristoffer Broberg 125/1
Strong links record and nice tee time made him a player of interest. May look to pick him up in-play if he starts well.
Sami Valimaki 125/1
Promising finish last week and a previous winner in the Middle East, the initial 175/1 was tempting but looks to be on the wrong side of the draw and subsequently shortened to 125/1.
Nino Bertasio 125/1
Another who initially appealed but wrong side of the draw was enough to put us off.
Wade Ormsby 125/1
Ticks a lot of boxes this week but Doha GC record is strangely poor.
Garrick Porteous 160/1
Strong recent form and a good wind player, we wanted 200/1 and so left out.
Andrea Pavan 350/1
On the wrong side of the draw or would have been under further consideration. A big result coming soon.
Lorenzo Gagli 500/1
A recent father, he's shown signs of life to date and with a solid Qatar record (albeit his best has been at Education City), he was under consideration. Others ultimately preferred.
In-play
Qatar Masters In-Play Blog
26 March 2022, 8:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Jordan |
-8 |
| Meronk |
-8 |
| Samooja |
-7 |
| Larrazabal |
-6 |
| Nienaber |
-6 |
| Otaegui |
-6 |
Strong winds caused the players problems and it's all change at the top of the leaderboard at the Qatar Masters.
Matthew Jordan and Adrian Meronk have taken over Pablo Larrzabal's mantle and there's not much to separate them in the the betting. Meronk just edges favouritism at 7/2 with Jordan 4/1.
Neither player has won on the European Tour before and both are fairly evenly matched. Both have won once on the Challenge Tour and both have had chances to win on the DP World Tour. Meronk has arguably had the better of those chances and he looks like a winner in waiting.
Hopefully Meronk's breakthrough win doesn't come this week as Matthew Jordan was was on of our pre-event selections at 90/1. He looked to have blown his chances when playing his opening nine holes of round 3 in +3 but five birdies on the back nine was an exceptional effort and he goes into the final round with momentum.
Fourth for SG: Off The Tee and 1st for Scrambling, he'll need both of those aspects to remain strong tomorrow as he searches for his first European Tour win.
We're very much kicking ourselves at not backing Kalle Samooja this week. He was one of our Five to Watch at the start of the season so it will certainly feel like one who got away if he goes on to win. He's a definite danger.
Two of the past three winners at Doha GC have been leading (Justin Harding was the exception in 2019 - he was 10th). However, with strong wind forecast we may well see someone come from behind an post a score, just as Samooja did in Round 3.
The weather for the final round should be similar to the 3rd round. The forecast indicates there will be sunshine with wind around 25mph (gusts may be higher).
Round 4 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Zander Lombard 66/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-4)
With our position on Matthew Jordan we're keen to strengthen our position by backing a number of longer odds players who are strong in the wind. Zander Lombard is one such player and were it not for an unlucky double bogey in round 2 and another double in round 3, he'd have gone into the final round near the lead. As it is, he's four shots back but with strong winds once again expected, he has every chance.
- 0.5pts Each Way Oliver Wilson 100/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-4)
Oliver has been extremely consistent this week, firing rounds of 71-70-71. He was a runner up last time Doha GC hosted the event and there's every reason to think he can go close again. He's a fine wind player and he'll be relishing the test tomorrow.
- 0.5pts Each Way Nicolai von Dellingshausen 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
- 0.5pts Each Way Jonathan Caldwell 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Scrambling has been a key stat for winners at Doha GC over the years and it's interesting that these two players rank 8th and 10th in that category so far this week (a category Matthew Jordan leads). Both players are on 4 under par and given their odds we're prepared to roll the dice given they went round in 68 and 70 respectively. Von Dellingshausen has real momentum after opening with a 76 but battling back with rounds of 68 each of the last two days. Caldwell came from well off the pace for his win at the Scandinavian Invitational last year so he won't be afraid of playing catch up.
25 March 2022, 8:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Larrazabal |
-9 |
| Hannna |
-8 |
| Nienaber |
-8 |
| Meronk |
-8 |
| Langasque |
-7 |
| Four players tied |
-6 |
It was a tale of two nines for Pablo Larrazabal as he went out in 40 shots and came back in 31 to retain his lead at the halfway point of the Qatar Masters.
Pablo remains the favourite at 4/1 but it's hard to back him at such short odds with 36 holes to go. He's undoubtedly mercurial at times but too often he's erratic and he's not for us at 4/1. The forecasted winds will be an equaliser
Chasing Larrazabal are a group of players who all possess plenty of firepower off the tee. The trio of Chase Hanna (18/1), Wilco Nienaber (13/2) and Adrian Meronk (11/2) are all chasing their first European Tour win but they too seem plenty short enough in the betting. Hanna grew up in Kansas and has spoken in the past of his comfort in the wind so he would be our preferred option at the available odds.
The past three winners at Doha GC have been inside the top two at halfway but with the weather forecast anything could yet happen.
The weather for round 3 will be sunny with the wind set to blow around 24mph in the afternoon. The final round is meant to be even windier so caution is advised if backing short odds in-play.
Round 3 Bets
We don't see any value in the odds available and with the next two days set to be windy, we are happy to look again with 18 holes to go.
24 March 2022, 4:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Larrazabal |
-8 |
| Langasque |
-6 |
| Sharma |
-6 |
| Meronk |
-6 |
| Helligkilde |
-6 |
| Ferguson |
-5 |
| Rock |
-5 |
Pablo Larrazabal bounced back from a missed cut last week to open up a two shot after the opening round of the Qatar Masters.
Having won two starts ago in South Africa, the Spaniard is understandable 9/2 favourite. However, he must face the more difficult afternoon conditions tomorrow and doesn't make any appeal to us.
Romain Langasque (7/1) and Adrian Meronk (8/1) are in the group of players chasing Larrazabal and they are next in the betting. Both players will play in the morning in round 2 and they make far more appeal than Larrazabal. However, with winds in excess of 20mph forecast for the weekend we're not in a rush to back anyone at single figure odds.
Our pre-event selections are off to a solid start, with our three strongest selections inside the top 26 and all teeing off early tomorrow. If you'd like to subscribe so you don't miss out in future weeks you can find further information here.
As we mentioned in the Preview, the past two winners at Doha GC have been inside the top three after the opening 18 holes. However, Jeunghun Wang was 29th after round one in 2017 so it is possible to make up ground.
Weather for round 2 will be much the same as round 1, with the wind slightly stronger. Those players who play in the afternoon will face winds of 17mph, as such, morning starters are preferred for our round 2 bets below.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Wade Ormsby 50/1 @ Coral (1/5 1-5)
if you read our Preview, you'll have noted Wade was one of the players we almost backed from the outset. He's a fine wind player and a previous winner on the European Tour (2017 Hong Kong Open). A solid opening round of 68 puts him four shots off the pace and we're happy to take the 50/1 to get him onside. His approach play was solid in round 1 and he's fancied to go well in the wind this weekend.
- 0.5pts Each Way Ross McGowan 200/1 @ General (1/5 1-5)
With weather set to cause some problems over the weekend we're happy to roll the dice on Ross. An opening round of 69 leaves him five shots off the pace but he'll play in the best of the weather tomorrow and can hopefully make up ground. His price reflects his inconsistency but we shouldn't forget he won the Italian Open in October 2020 and also won on the Challenge Tour the year before.
