28th October 2022, 10:20pm (UK time)

Round 2 Summary

Players once again went low but an afternoon breeze kept a lid on scoring for those out later in the day.  Just five shots separates the top 30.

Round 2 Quotes

"(On changing putting) It’s really made a difference to the way I stroke the putter. It was in France, I picked up the putter I was going to test over the winter after Dubai, and I had a little roll with it on the greens and it felt good. My putting coach said I should throw myself in the deep end and give it a go and it’s really paid off." Jordan Smith

"Yesterday we had a few soft bogeys with wedges and short irons. Today we had one soft bogey. Other than that everything else was a little tighter. We just kept playing, kept hitting it in the fairway, driving it well. Hitting it long enough past most of the trouble and we’re in the fairway, so it changes a lot of things and helps out." Gavin Green

"I had the good side of the draw. The wind picked up on the last few holes and it’ll be tougher this afternoon for the guys. I played nicely across the board and it’s been a fairly stress-free few days." Eddie Pepperell

Round 3 Weather

Sunny intervals. Wind 8-10 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jordan Smith remains favourite at 3/1 but we're still of the opinion that others represent better value.  Whilst the old saying suggests we should always beware of the injured golfer, Smith's cold is unlikely to be a positive.  His new putting stroke remains untested under pressure and that's another reason to skip by him in the betting.

Gavin Green is next in the betting at 5/1 and that too feels like a price we can move past considering he struggled coming down the stretch at the Czech Masters this year. 

Tapio Pulkkanen is third in the betting at 8/1 but it's incredibly hard to support him at single figure odds given his propensity to throw away winning positions.  His performance on the final hole of the Czech Masters this year was enough to put anyone off.

Where is the value?

Thomas Pieters and Lucas Bjerregaard were in second position at this stage in 2021 and 2017.  However, the winners in between those years were all outside the top ten.  Catch up remains possible and we shouldn't discount those players a bit further back.

Round 3 Bet

• 0.75pts Each Way Joel Stalter 150/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)

We didn't think Joel Stalter would be the bet on the blog today but his stats and post round interview make a compelling case and he's impossible to ignore.  He ranks 6th in SG: Tee to Green over the opening two rounds and finds himself three shots off the pace. In his post round interview he stated, "I’m really happy. I’ve been playing good golf for a little bit now, the last couple of months, and it’s coming together nicely. I’m not surprised, but it feels good." Stalter would go on to say that, I came here at the start of the week and I thought I was playing good, and I said ‘let’s try and win this week’. A winner on Tour at the 2020 Euram Bank Open, he's shown he can win if he's playing well.  He needs to win to keep his card for next year so he has nothing to lose.

27th October 2022, 8:30pm (UK time)

Round 1 Summary

Perfect scoring conditions and soft greens saw players go low in the opening round in Portugal.  Only 19 players were over par.

Round 1 Quotes

"I was with my old coach for 20 years, you need to give it some time. I had a bit of an injury in the season and didn’t play for three months. Now it feels better. When you change coaches you need to give it some time before it feels like normal and not think about things, that’s how you want to play golf without thinking too much. Finally I’m getting to that point, I’m looking forward to giving it more time and looking forward to next season." Joost Luiten

"Last week it clicked in my head mentally. Hitting the shots I know I can hit and being 100 per cent, not focusing too much on the score – of course I’m aware of it. I feel in a good flow at the moment." Nicolai von Dellingshausen

"The fairways are a lot softer this year so the ball doesn’t bounce and run as much. It’s playing different, I don’t know about easier but definitely longer. It’s a bit of give and take, hopefully the weather stays up and it firms up." Gavin Green

Round 2 Weather

Sunny intervals. Wind 8-12 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jordan Smith is a best price 10/3.  Those odds are incredibly short though for an event that will be a putting contest over the next three days.  The flat stick isn't always Smith's friend and we're happy to swerve him at this stage given the price.

Gavin Green and Joakim Lagergren are next in the betting at 14/1.  Lagergren described his game as "getting better and better each week" in his post round interview and is a threat given the way he putts.  Green was also in bullish mood after his round and stated that he "hit it great."   Neither player can be discounted.

Where is the value?

Tom Lewis was 110th after the first round in 2018 and Steven Brown was 38th at this stage in 2019.  Low scores are common at this event and it is possible to play catch up.  

Round 2 Bets

• 1pt Each Way Marcus Kinhult 50/1 @ Unibet/Betfred (1/5 1-5)

Marcus Kinhult was on our shortlist pre-event given his 6th place at Valderrama two weeks ago and a 4th place finish here in Portugal in 2018.  Only four shots behind Smith, he's a winner on the DP World Tour and can mount a challenge over the next few days. He's currently 82nd in the Race to Dubai and knows a big week could see him break into the elusive top 60 and gain entry into the DP World Tour Championship. Finally, he has a morning tee time tomorrow and should have the best of conditions.  

• 0.5pts Each Way Kristoffer Broberg 250/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)

We can't resist a bet on a player who won the Dutch Open for us last year at a big price and is a streaky putter.  An opening round of 67 has left Broberg five shots off the pace but he's capable of extremely low scores and we're willing to take a chance on him getting hot with the putter over the next three days.  A 12th place finish here last year showed his liking for the venue and anything above 200/1 is worth taking.