Event Info
Starts: 4th November
Course: Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Portugal
Par: 71
Length: 7,191 yards
2020 Champion: George Coetzee
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +2pts
Pre-Event Bets: +8pts
1pt EW Joachim Lagergen 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7) DNS
0.75pts EW Julien Guerrier 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts EW Alvaro Quiros 80/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Pep Angles 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Francesco Laporta 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Sami Valimaki 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
1.5pts Scott Hend Top 20 Finish 9/1 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -6pts
4 November 2021(-3pts)
1pt EW Marcus Armitage 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Alexander Levy 90/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
5 November 2021(-3pts)
0.5pts EW Kristoffer Broberg 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
0.5pts EW Sean Crocker 110/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
0.5pts EW Benjamin Hebert 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Type of Course - Exposed, linksy.
Course Designer - Sid Brews, course re-designed in 1990 by Mark Muller and most recently by Sean Quinn.
Fairways - Wide and well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda, not too penal
Greens - Fast, Undulating Poa/Bentgrass
Water Hazards - In-play on 7 holes
Par 5's - 5th, 12th an 17th
Premium on - Aggressive play and putting
Weather
Conditions should be dry and sunny all week with temperatures peeking in the late teens. There looks to be a draw bias for the AM-PM starters as the wind dies down Friday afternoon.
Thursday
Sunny, max winds 12mph (afternoon)
Friday
Sunny, max winds 13mph (morning)
Saturday
Sunny, max winds 11mph
Sunday
Sunny, max winds 10mph
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
108 man field.
This is an important event for those trying to get in the top 50 of the Race to Dubai in a few weeks.
It is also important for those trying to retain their Tour cards, with the top 122 in the season standings doing so. Justin Walters is a prime example of someone who has retained his card with a 2nd place finish (twice).
Motivation is a key factor at the end of the year - see bottom of the preview.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals..
Trends
Winning score
Last two winning scores have been -16 and -17 but the four prior were -20 or better. Given the field strength, we could see a winner in the 20's this week
Course form
6 of the last 11 winners haven't had a previous top 10 at Dom Pedro but last years winner George Coetzee is a course specialist. Tom Lewis has won twice here while Justin Walters has been 2nd twice.
Recent form
Last four winners all posted a top 15 finish in their previous event. Coetzee was coming off a win.
Favourites or Outsiders
5 of the last 6 winners have started at 50/1 or over. Coetzee was only 18/1 last year but in general outsiders go well.
Stats Analysis
Greens in Regulation
Only 3 of last 11 winners were inside the top 10 for GIR. Padraig Harrington was 67th in 2016. Not a key stat.
Driving Distance
The winner has been in the top 15 for driving distance in 5 of the last 11 running's. Length can be an advantage.
Driving Accuracy
The highest ever ranking by a winner in the last 11 years has been 9th. Distance is preferred.
Scrambling
The winner has been in the top 2 in 6 of the last 11 years - although Tom Lewis was 66th when he won in 2018. We should look for quality scramblers.
Putting
The winner was 1st for Putts Per GIR in 5 of the last 9 years and top 10 the other 4. To win at Dom Pedro you have to putt/score well.
In Play
Tough Holes
Par 4 7th was toughest last year followed by Par 4 18th and Par 4 9th.
Birdie Holes
The three easiest holes in 2020 were the Par 5 5th, driveable Par 4 15th and Par 5 17th.
Fast or Slow Start
Given the nature of the low scoring, it is possible to play catch up here so a fast start is not a necessity. Coetzee was eight behind Guerrier at halfway last year. We quite often see scores in their low 60's which can shoot players up the leaderboard.
Players with their eye on Dubai
Sam Horsfield (53rd)
Sam is currently ranked 53rd in the standings and will be eyeing this up as exactly the sort of opportunity to secure his place in the season finale. Although his course form is mediocre with 59-MC-49, this generous layout should let him attack with his power. Generally hasn't performed well in this part of the world although 4th in Gran Canaria shows his ability to rip it up on resort style courses. Available at 30/1 if you can get over his course form.
Alexander Levy (56th)
A winner here in 2014, the Frenchman is aiming to reach the finale following a 2nd at the Cazoo Classic this summer. He showed some strong late season form in 2020 with a 7th place in Cyprus and 6th in South Africa. A top 10 in Dubai at the start of 2021 ties in nicely with the test this week and his aggressive game has already succeeded here before. He could be some each way value at 90/1.
Joakim Lagergren (48th)
A player looking to protect his position and will know he can't take his foot off the gas just yet. The Swede continued his love affair with the Alfred Dunhill Links a few weeks ago, finishing 2nd. He is very much a horses for courses type, so form here of 3-14-MC-17 in his last four starts should grab punters' attention. A winner on the coast at the Sicilian Open in 2018 and 2nd in Qatar in 2017 prove his credentials and currently ranks number one putter on tour this season. At 55/1 he could be a strong option.
Thomas Pieters (70th)
Thomas is further down the rankings and he will be going for the win this week. His results have improved recently with four top 20 finishes in his last six starts and he returns to a course where he was 6th in 2015. In theory this should be a course which suits his strengths but he has often disappointed at similar venues. He is still well respected by the bookmakers at 25/1 - on talent alone he is the value of the favourites.
Players fighting for survival
Eddie Pepperell (139th)
"There won't be many players playing on the Challenge Tour next year who can say they've gone round Valderrama without making a bogey". Eddie's tweet a few weeks ago which sums up the seriousness of his position. A two time winner in 2018 (Qatar and British Masters) and a course specialist here, this could be the time for Eddie to put the phone away and get his career back on track. 55/1 if you think this is his time.
Pep Angles (135th)
Another Pep who had done practically nothing this year until a 2nd place finish at the Mallorca Open a couple of weeks ago. He also finished 2nd to Garrick Higgo at the Open de Portugal this time last year and was 12th at this course in 2020. Pep is an aggressive player who is best suited to low scoring events like this and he has the momentum to finish strong here and retain his card. He's been well backed but still available at 125/1
Lucas Bjerregard (136th)
Once ranked 43rd in the world after finishing 4th at the World Matchplay Championship in 2019, it has been a rapid decline for the Dane. He will be hoping to draw on memories from 2017 when he won here but a best finish of 10th place this season leaves a lot to be desired. He loves this course though. Back him at 80/1 if you think he can recapture his form.
Thorbjorn Olesen (141st)
Another Dane who has followed an almost identical career decline. Ranked even higher than his compatriot in 2018 when he got to 38th in the World Rankings. A five-time winner on tour, Olesen's recent troubles have been well documented, but 5th in Gran Canaria earlier this season, along with 20th in his last start at Valderrama, offers hope. He has made his last seven cuts here without a top 10 finish and is widely available at 80/1.
In-play
Portugal Masters In-Play Blog
6 November 2021, 7.40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Pavon | -16 |
| Pieters | -16 |
| Bjerregaard | -12 |
| Broberg | -11 |
| Horsfield | -10 |
| N Hojgaard | -10 |
Matthieu Pavon and Thomas Pieters have taken up the mantle in Portugal and the pair have a four shot lead going into the final round.
Pieters is the 4/5 favourite, having played his back nine in 30 strokes and shown just what he is capable of. The Belgian hasn't won since the Czech Masters in August 2019 but he's a four time winner on the European Tour and is undoubtedly a class above the others at the top of this leaderboard.
Ominously for the field, Pieters put his slow start in round three down to five mud balls. He thought he had "played well" and should his form continue he'll be tough to stop.
It should be noted that Pieters has been on the periphery of contention for much of 2021 without really getting into the mix. He was two shots back going into the final round at the Corales Puntacana event on the PGA Tour but closed with a final round 74 to slip to 15th.
Matthieu Pavon (7/4) is looking for his first European Tour win but two missed putts under 2ft in round three will surely come back to haunt him tomorrow. At the very least there are worries about his ability to hole short putts when the pressure intensifies.
The Frenchman hasn't been in serious contention since the Hero Open in June last year and that lack of experience could hurt him tomorrow. He holed over 150ft of putts in round three and that level of performance is hard to sustain.
Chasing the top two is Lucas Bjerregaard (14/1). A past champion of this event, the Dane was erratic at times in round three but managed to score nonetheless. Whether he's capable of ironing out those errors remains to be seen.
Yesterday's 100/1 in-play tip, Kristoffer Broberg, is lurking at -11 and we are hopeful he can post a low final round. Should the leaders stall, he's a player who is capable of birdies (as we saw at the Dutch Open).
In each of the last five Portugal Masters, the winner has come from the front three. With that said, low scores are possible and a round in the low 60s from the chasing pack is entirely possible.
Conditions for the 4th round will be sunny, with the wind around 6mph.
Round 4 Bet
- No bet
It was tempting to put up Thomas Pieters at 4/5. However, it's never wise to trust leaders on a Sunday on the European Tour at odds on! Instead we'll hope the front two slip up and our man Broberg makes a move from five back
5 November 2021, 10.40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bertasio | -12 |
| Arnaus | -10 |
| Pieters | -10 |
| Bjerregaard | -10 |
| Pavon | -10 |
| Shinkwin | -9 |
Nino Bertasio's lead has been cut in half through 36 holes of the Portugal Masters.
Bertasio spoke after the round of the challenges of leading, stating "it was (challenging to stay present), I’m not going to lie. So many messages and a lot on social media." The pressure will intensify over the weekend as he searches for his first win and we're happy to take him on.
The Italian's best ever finish on the European Tour was 4th at the 2019 Scottish Open. That was the last time he was in serious contention on a Sunday and that lack of recent experience will surely hurt him over the weekend. Yet to win in over 200 starts, he's not for us at 9/2.
Joint favourite with Bertasio is Thomas Pieters. His joint best of the day 64 was enough to move him two back and he's now a huge danger. Currently 70th on the Race to Dubai rankings, he needs a big week to move up into the top 50 and make the season ending DP World Tour Championship.
The last three winners of this event have all been outside the top 10 at halfway and we shouldn't write off those at five or six under par. As we saw when Oliver Fisher recorded his 59, low rounds are possible around Dom Pedro. Furthermore, if Bertasio were to stall, the lead is in effect ten under par.
Conditions for the 3rd round will be sunny, with the wind set to test the players a bit more. The wind is expected to blow in excess of 14mph.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Kristoffer Broberg 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
It was surprising to see Broberg chalked up at 100/1 when he has a win and a top 10 finish in his last four starts. Six shots off the lead, he's capable of making birdies for fun and the bookmakers appear to have forgotten his Saturday 61 at the Dutch Open six weeks ago. The Swede is a two time winner on the European Tour and four time winner on the Challenge Tour, he's a player who knows how to win if the opportunity presents itself. Bogey free in round two, he can build on that momentum and challenge on Sunday.
- 0.5pts Each Way Sean Crocker 110/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
With conditions set to be a bit trickier tomorrow, ball striking could well come to the fore and there aren't many better than Crocker. The American is one of the purest strikers on the European Tour and is capable of moving up the leaderboard from his current position (19th) if the putter behaves. He's had several opportunities to win this year but has felt the pressure on a Sunday. Chasing over the final two rounds may well suit him and we think three figure odds are too generous. Take the 100/1 with Boylesports if necessary.
- 0.5pts Each Way Benjamin Hebert 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Hebert is currently -6, six shots off the lead. However, he's ranked inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation on each of the first two days this week. He'll enjoy windier conditions tomorrow and we could well see him sneak up the leaderboard. He needs a big week to retain his playing privileges for next season and can't afford to take his foot off the gas. We think he could well finish strongly.
4 November 2021, 8.10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bertasio | -10 |
| Arnaus | -6 |
| Green | -5 |
| Six Players Tied | -4 |
Nino Bertasio leads by four after a sensational 61. He was six clear in the morning but Adri Arnaus was able to shoot 65 in the afternoon and Gavin Green is one further back following a 66.
Bertasio has been threatening in recent weeks, posting some strong strokes-gained stats whilst racking up back-to-back top 20's in Spain. He has never finished better than 4th on tour - incidentally that was at the 2019 Scottish Open where he was joint leader after round one.
A best price of 4/1 is not one we could entertain after round one on the European Tour but what he does have in his favour is the forecast of wind in the morning which is due to die down around his tee time.
Arnaus is a massive danger and showed his ability under pressure pushing Cabrera Bello the whole way at the Open De Espana. He will be a bet for many at 8/1 with an early start, but the tougher morning conditions is putting us off.
If Bertasio is to stall, this is wide open and a lot of danger lurks at 3-4 under par. We have identified a couple of possible movers on day two.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Marcus Armitage 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Just in case the forecast doesn't go as planned, we want Marcus onside at a value price. A winner at the Porsche European Open earlier in the year and capable of going low on his day, he could well make a move up the leaderboard. We looked at Grant Forrest too on the same score but Armitage is preferred at 10pts bigger in the market.
- 0.5pts Each Way Alexander Levy 90/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
We highlighted Levy's motivation in our preview as he chases a spot in the top 50 of Race to Dubai. We wrote "A winner here in 2014, the Frenchman is aiming to reach the finale following a 2nd at the Cazoo Classic this summer. He showed some strong late season form in 2020 with a 7th place in Cyprus and 6th in South Africa. A top 10 in Dubai at the start of 2021 ties in nicely with the test this week and his aggressive game has already succeeded here before. He could be some each way value at 90/1." He is still the same price with a nice tee time so we're happy to get onboard now. Take the 80/1 elsewhere if you don't have Unibet.
