Preview

Course Info

Stroke Index 2019 - 70.19
Type of Course - Exposed, linksy.
Course Designer - Sid Brews, course re-designed in 1990 by Mark Muller and most recently by Sean Quinn.
Fairways - Wide and well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda, not too penal
Greens - Fast, Undulating Poa/Bentgrass
Water Hazards - In-play on 7 holes
Par 5's - 5th, 12th an 17th
Premium on - Aggressive play and putting

Weather Forecast

Summary

Warm and sunny all four days with winds in single figures Thursday and Friday. Higher winds expected on Saturday with current forecast saying max winds of 26mph. Eases off Sunday.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Last week saw Jordan Smith withdraw due to "struggles living within the European Tour bubble".

 

Trends

Winning score

Only one of the last 10 winners have shot worse than -17 to win.

Course form

6 of the last 10 winners haven't had a previous top 10 at Dom Pedro.

Recent form

Last 3 winners all posted a top 15 finish in their previous event.

Favourites or Outsiders

The last 5 winners all started at over 50/1 on the exchange, including last years winner Steven Brown who was a 300/1 shot.

Stats Analysis

Summary

Greens in Regulation - Only 3 of last 10 winners were inside the top 10 for GIR. Padraig Harrington was 67th in 2016.

Driving Distance

The winner has been in the top 15 for driving distance in 4 of the last 10 events here.

Driving Accuracy

The highest ever ranking by a winner in the last 10 years has been 9th. Distance is preferred.

Scrambling

The winner has been in the top 2 in 6 of the last 10 years - although Tom Lewis was 66th when he won in 2018.

Putting

The winner was 1st for Putts Per GIR in 5 of the last 8 years and top 10 the other 3. To win at Dom Pedro you have to putt/score well.

In Play

Tough Holes

Par 4 7th played toughest last year, Par 4 3rd (SI 4), Par 3 16th (SI 3) and Par 4 18th (SI 2) were next.

Birdie Holes

Par 5 5th (SI 18), Par 5 12th (SI 16) and driveable Par 4 15th (SI 17). The 2nd, 4th, 10th and 17th were the next four easiest holes.

Fast or Slow Start

Given the nature of the low scoring, it is possible to play catch up here and a fast start is not a necessity. We quite often see scores in their low 60's which can shoot players up the leaderboard.

Six To Watch

Justin Walters - 75/1 @ Bet365
We made a mental note to have Justin onside for the Portugal Masters early on during the UK Championship before he went on to lose the playoff to Rasmus Hojgaard. He has twice finished 2nd here at Dom Pedro, both times to save his European Tour card, so he may well go one better with the pressure off a little. He looks set to make a breakthrough sooner or later.

Johannes Veerman - 70/1 @ Bet365
One man who might be feeling motivated is American Johannes Veerman after his compatriot John Catlin made his European Tour breakthrough last week. He played nicely also, finishing 10th, which made it 4 Top 40 finishes in his last 5 starts. Stats wise, Johannes fits the bill and there don't appear to be many weaknesses. He ranks inside the top 100 for every category.

Adrian Meronk - 100/1 @Bet365
Adrian has shown glimpses since the return, including 6th place at the Celtic Classic last month. We can ignore a missed cut last week by the big hitting Pole as Dom Pedro should be a course which suits him better. He is a strong putter and scrambler and one final bonus, he won last year in Portugal on the Challenge Tour which should bring him good memories.

Joakim Lagergren - 110/1 @Bet365
Joakim won the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open in 2018 at the Verdura Golf and Spa Resort and that is a course which correlates nicely to Dom Pedro. Three of the last five winners of the Portugal Masters were in the top 7 the year Joakim won at Verdura, so there is a definite link. He's very much a player who is hit or miss, but he showed signs of form at Valderrama last week with 24th place. He has two top 20 finishes in his last three starts here and is one to watch at triple figure odds.

Jens Fahrbring - 175/1 @Bet365
Jens caught our eye at the start of the UK swing, placing 10th place at the Betfred British Masters. He comes in off the back of a 3rd place on the Challenge Tour and looks capable of getting in the mix at a big price. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour. A player to follow when hot.

Julien Guerrier - 200/1 @Bet365
We wouldn't advise backing Julien pre-tournament as he's often underrated by layers in-play. However, if he gets off to a fast start consider getting him onside. He has rock solid form at the Rocco Forte event, having finished 8th and 6th in 2017 and 2018. He also has a respectable 34th in his only appearance at Dom Pedro in 2018. Another player on the comeback trail having missed almost all of 2019 with injury problems but he looked very much like a winner in waiting having won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017.

In-play

In-Play Blog

13th September

-11 Coetzee
-10 Guerrier
-10 Kawamura
-9 Canter
-9 Lemke

George Coetzee takes over as leader and bookies favourite at the Portgual Open.  Those who backed him at 20/1 yesterday will be sitting pretty as he's now a market best of 7/4.

George has yet to win in mainland Europe and there remains a question mark against his name in our opinion.  Yes, he won in South Africa last week on his home course but his record in Europe when trying to convert is iffy at best.  It may be an omen that George was 11 under par at this event last year through three rounds and posted a final round 71.  An even par round won't get the job done today and George will need something under par to win.

George looked remarkably relaxed in his post-round interview yesterday which bodes well but at that point he was still the chaser.

Our 200/1 pre-event pick, Julien Guerrier, had a day to forget yesterday.  It's not often you can shoot 75 and remain firmly in contention but given the quality of Guerrier's play over the first two days that is the position he finds himself in.  He was awful yesterday, failing to record a single birdie, but being the chaser today may suit him better and he's certainly not out of things.

Of the others in contention it's hard to build a compelling case for anyone.  Each of the guys at -10, -9 and -8 are seeking their first European Tour win.  Of those players Laurie Canter and Sihwan Kim have never won on any tour. 

Tommy Fleetwood has been fantastic with his irons this week and were it not for a cold putter he would be at the top of the leaderboard.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend from off the pace today but the value on Tommy went mid-way through Guerrier's collapse yesterday.

The forecast shows the wind to be stronger in the morning with the breeze softening as the day wears on.

With Guerrier still in the mix and Joakim Lagergren still in contention, we are happy to let the final round play out without further involvement.

12th September

-14 Guerrier
-9 Kim
-7 Nine players tied

Julien Guerrier, our 200/1 pre-event selection, holds a commanding lead with 36 holes to go in Portugal.  He is a best price 13/10 to convert from here and it's likely a couple of under par rounds will get the job done.

Julien didn't inspire confidence with his last two performances under pressure on the European Tour.  Two shots back going into the final round at the 2018 Rocco Forte Sicilian Open, he shot a 71 to lose out by 3.  In February 2018 he was joint 54 hole leader at the Oman Open before shooting another 71 to lose out by three.

In Julien's defence, he won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017, converting both from the front with a round to go.  He will also draw inspiration from compatriot and fellow Amateur Championship winner, Romain Langasque, securing his maiden win at the Wales Open several weeks ago.

We expect Julien to lead by the end of today but his lead will likely be shorter.

Yesterday's bet, Antoine Rozner, played well to jump up to tied 3rd and hopefully he can at least make the each way places.  With the wind likely to be up over the weekend (particularly Sunday) we could see some significant movement on the leaderboard.  With that in mind we have one each way play today.

1pt Each Way Joakim Lagergren (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 200/1 @ 888Sport

Joakim was one of our Six To Watch on the basis of his Rocco Forte Sicilian Open win in 2018, the same reason we put up Julien Guerrier.  He currently sits in tied 26th but with wind forecast he could well make progress this weekend.  He ranks 13th SG: Off The Tee and he's a more than capable wind player.  At big odds he's worth an each way punt.

11th September

1pt Each Way Antoine Rozner (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 50/1 @ Skybet

Antoine sits in 21st place currently, 7 shots behind Liam Johnston, however as mentioned in our preview, a fast start isn't essential. Last years winner, Steven Brown, was 6 shots back after 18 holes last year and Tom Lewis was 9 shots back the year before that! Low scores happen all the time here and it is not uncommon for the leaderboard to change dramatically in the first couple of days.

The Frenchman returned to form last week with a 3rd place finish and was 4th for greens in regulation and 8th for driving accuracy in round 1 today.  It has been mentioned that it is more important to keep the ball in play this year as the rough is up so these are encouraging stats. Finally, Antoine has an early start tomorrow which he can make up ground fast. It is notoriously hard to back up a low round so the leaders shouldn't be able to get too far ahead. With two Challenge Tour wins in 2019, Rozner would relish being in the mix come Sunday.