Preview
Course Info
Designer: Michael Blesch
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2017
Fairways: Wide
Rough: N/A
Greens: Large and undulating
Water Hazards: In-play on 17 holes
Par 5's: 4th, 9th, 11th, 15th, 16th & 18th
Premium on: Par 5 scoring and approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The course will play as a par 73 this year, with the 4th hole changing from a long par 4 to a par 5.
In 2019, the event was played in September, whilst it was played in July in 2017-18. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 14mph
Friday
Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 10mph
Saturday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 9mph
Trends
Winning score
Kalle Samooja won last year with a score of -6. Three of the previous four editions have been between -11 and -14.
Winning Profile
Kalle Samooja was world number 239 before his win last year, whilst Marcus Armitage was ranked 190th in the world when winning in 2021. Both players were winning their first DP World Tour title. Paul Casey was world number 19 before his win in 2019 and had won on the PGA Tour earlier that year. Richard McEvoy was a massive shock winner when he held off Bryson DeChambeau in 2018. Despite winning a Challenge Tour event the week before, he was only ranked 275th in the world. Jordan Smith had a terrific season on tour before his win in 2017 and was ranked 122nd pre-win.
Correlating Courses
The Albatross Golf Course in Czech Republic is similar in terms of being a long brute of a course.
Course form
Last yer's champion, Kalle Samooja, had recorded a top 20 finish in 2021. The winner in 2021, Marcus Armitage, had no course form with only a missed cut to his name previously. Casey was 7th in his previous finish here, McEvoy was 28th the year before and Smith was a debutant like most of the field. A previous good showing at the course is an advantage but not essential.
Recent form
Kalle Samooja had missed his three previous cuts prior to winning last year. Armitage was 8th the week before his win. Casey arrived after a 3rd at the Tour Championship. McEvoy had won on the Challenge Tour in his previous start and Smith had made his last seven cuts without placing. Aside from Samooja, recent form appears to be a very handy guide.
Nationality
Four of the five winners at this course have been English.
Stats Analysis
We will assess the stats of the five most recent winners between 2017-22.
Driving Distance
22-106-24-114-4. Despite the long yardage, McEvoy and Armitage both triumphed despite being shorter hitters.
Driving Accuracy
63-63-20-15-13. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but it certainly helps to average or better.
SG: Off The Tee
18-46-11-32-N/A. No stats are available for Smith's win in 2017 but he drove the ball beautifully. It's important to make up shots off the tee.
SG: Approach
3-19-1-21-N/A. Strong iron play is important.
SG: Around The Greens
10-10-96-45-N/A. Armitage ranked highly but this is generally not a key stat.
SG: Putting
109-7-30-30-N/A. Armitage ranked highly and whilst it's clearly important to put well, other stats are favoured.
In Play
Tough Holes
In 2019 and 2021, the 493 yard Par 4 10th played the toughest, averaging 4.44 in 2021. The 4th and 6th were the 2nd and 3rd toughest holes both years.
Birdie Holes
In 2021, the par 4 7th played the second easiest over the four days, averaging 3.86. The five par 5's were the other easiest holes.
Fast or Slow Start
Samooja was five shots back after the opening round last year. However in 2019, three of the top four were in the top two after day one. It's possible to play catch up.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a long par 5 measuring 705 yards, followed by a 170 yard par 3 17th. The 18th is an easy Par 5 which averaged 4.82 in 2021.
Previous Porsche European Opens
2022
2021
2023 Porsche European Open Tips
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In-play
Porsche European Open In-Play Blog
2 June 2023, 11:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| McKibbin |
-6 |
| Law |
-6 |
| Guerrier |
-6 |
| Smith |
-6 |
| Axelsen |
-6 |
| Bjork |
-6 |
| Siem |
-5 |
2023 Porsche European Open Round 3 Summary
Six players are tied for the lead with one round to go in Germany. Our 100/1 pre-event selection, Tom McKibbin, is one of those players.
Notable Round 3 Porsche European Open Quotes
""(Winning) would mean the world to me. I'll just try not to think about that, go out and play my own game and see where that leaves me at the end of tomorrow." Tom McKibbin
2023 Porsche European Open Round 4 Weather
Sunny. Wind 5-10mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
Jordan Smith is the marginal 4/1 favourite ahead of Alexander Bjork (9/2). Smith birdies three of his last six holes to get amongst the group at six under par, having got off to a slow start in round three.
Smith ranks 3rd SG: Tee to Green so far this week and is certainly one of the more likely winners. He converted a lead at the Portugal Masters towards the end of last year and is a two time winner on the DP World Tour.
However, 4/1 makes very little appeal given how bunched the top of the leaderboard is and how easily shots can be dropped at Green Eagle GC.
In-Play Porsche European Open Bets We Considered
Were cheering on McKibbin tomorrow but the price that caught our eye was that of Marcel Siem. The German has recent winning experience on Tour, having triumphed in India earlier this year, and he makes appeal at 12/1 or better.
Round 4 Bets
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2 June 2023, 10:20pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Kieffer |
-6 |
| Law |
-5 |
| McKibbin |
-5 |
| Smith |
-5 |
| Six players tied |
-3 |
2023 Porsche European Open Round 2 Summary
Max Kieffer held onto his lead but now has three players tucked in behind him. Easier scoring conditions saw David Law shoot the best round of the day - a 66 which included two bogeys to finish. Oyr 100/1 pre-event pick Tom McKibbin is one of those in tied 2nd place.
Notable Round 2 Porsche European Open Quotes
"The first nine holes I played really well. Birdie chances on every hole and it could have been a little bit lower if I holed some puts. The back nine played a bit more difficult because the wind was switching". Max Kieffer
2023 Porsche European Open Round 3 Weather
Mostly Sunny. Wind 5-10mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
Jordan Smith has shortened to 18/5 favourite and he actually looks a better price this evening than the 6/1 yesterday. Smith ranks inside the top 5 off the tee and for approach and is playing incredibly well to be in 2nd place with a cold putter. David Law isn't the most trustworthy in contention whilst our 100/1 man Tom McKibbin is lacking experience at this level. Smith and second favourite Kieffer (9/2) have a great chance now but it's tough to separate them and a double bogey lurks on almost every hole so we are reluctant to take those prices.
In-Play Porsche European Open Bets We Considered
Robert MacIntyre looks a big price at 20/1 as a win only play. The only thing that stopped us pulling the trigger is his tee to green stats which have been poor, unusually the putter is keeping him in contention. Should he improve his tee to green game tomorrow, he will be on our radar. Clement Sordet also interests us at 25/1, the Frenchman has three top 10's this season including 2nd in South Africa.
Round 3 Bets
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1 June 2023, 10:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Forsstrom |
-4 |
| Kieffer |
-4 |
| Luiten |
-3 |
| Helligkilde |
-3 |
| Smith |
-3 |
| Seven players tied |
-2 |
2023 Porsche European Open Round 1 Summary
Simon Forsstrom holds a share of the first round lead for the second time in a few weeks, having done so at the Soudal Open in May. Max Kieffer also shares the lead after an incredible start to his round with two 50ft putts and a chip in after six holes. Players endured tough conditions for most of the day but the sun came out mid afternoon which seemed to improve scoring.
Notable Round 1 Porsche European Open Quotes
"I’m very pleased. I thought it was tricky with the wind, it’s very windy and gusty. So I’m very pleased with my performance. " Simon Forsstrom
"The back nine was more scoreable. Most of the holes are downwind and there are four par fives. I actually played quite well on the back nine but didn’t hole the putts - the speed on long putts wasn’t great, so I left a few out there on the back nine. Overall, I’m quite happy. " Max Kieffer
2023 Porsche European Open Round 2 Weather
Mostly Sunny. Wind 10-15mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
Jordan Smith is 6/1 favourite despite being one behind the leaders and it's to be expected as he is a past winner at this course in 2017. The price looks a tad short after one round though, this course is full of danger and with the wind due to play it's part tomorrow, we wouldn't be taking single figure odds at this stage.
In-Play Porsche European Open Bets We Considered
From the front of the market, Marcus Helligkilde looks the best value at 16/1. The young Dane was very close to winning in Korea earlier this year and it looks a matter of time before he gets his first DP win. Jorge Campillo and Romain Langasque look the stand outs from the 33-40/1 range, we should expect the best players to come to the fore at such a tough course.
Round 2 Bets
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