Preview
Course Info
Designer: Hubert Chesneau and Robert Van Hagge.
Used Since: 1991-2019.
Fairways: Average, Undulating.
Greens: Average, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: On 1, 2, 13, 15, 16 and 18.
Premium on: Approach and putting.
Significant Info
This course hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018 and underwent changes to the course prior to the 2016 Open De France, therefore the events between 2016-2019 are most relevant from a course form point of view.
European Golf Design, the firm tasked with the re-design, were also responsible for the 2010 course at Celtic Manor, Green Eagle Golf (Nord) and Marco Simeone GC.
The event was traditionally played in June/July as a rolex series event however was pushed back to October in 2019 and now fills a slot in September. Course conditions from the 2019 edition are therefore most similar.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny. Wind to peak at 6mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 4mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 7mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 8mph.
Trends
Winning Score
The winning score was 12 under par in 2019 whilst Alex Noren only won with 7 under par in 2018. 2015-2017 were all won with scores between 11-13 under par and we should expect a similar score this year.
Course Form
Colsaerts had a couple of T11's previously but nothing special. 2018 winner Noren took a while to warm up to the course but had posted back to back top 10's before his win. 2017 winner Fleetwood had missed 4/4 cuts before his win in 2017. Course form helps but isn't essential.
Course Experience
Whilst previous course form might not be essential, course experience has been, with the last three winners having had plenty of experience playing this event before.
Recent Form
Colsaerts was having a poor year, with only one top 10 before his win in October 2019. Noren was in much better form before his win, with four top 25's in a row whilst arrived in red hot form too in 2017. Thongchai Jaidee was in fairly average form before his win in 2016. Form not essential, but has helped in some years.
Winner's Profile
Colsaerts, Noren, Fleetwood and Jaidee were all established winners on tour and every winner in the last decade has been the same. We should be looking for a classy winner this week.
Stats
With the 2019 edition most relevant, we will analyse the stats of the top four in 2019.
SG: Off The Tee
The top four in 2021 ranked 6-63-45-12. Strong drivers of the golf ball are preferred but not essential.
Driving Accuracy
The top four in 2021 ranked 55-57-51-105. Driving accuracy isn't essential this week.
Driving Distance
The top four in 2021 ranked 4-79-28-30. Distance over accuracy this week but not crucial.
SG: Approach
The top four in 2021 ranked 7-28-8-12. Strong iron play is generally required here.
SG: Around The Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 43-57-35-101. ATG isn't essential this week.
SG: Tee to Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 2-34-9-28. You can putt your way to a big finish, as JB Hansen did in 2019. Strong ball striking is preferred though.
SG: Putting
The top four in 2021 ranked 23-2-16-5. A solid putting week is usually required around Le Golf National.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The final four holes can play really tough, in particular 17 and 18 which were the toughest holes in 2019, whilst it is also a tough start with 1,2 and 4 all averaging over par.
In-Play
Eight of the last eleven round three leaders have not been able to convert, most notably in 2018 winner Alex Noren trailed by seven and Graeme McDowell trailed by eight!. Players have also come from two, three, four and five back in the last ten editions. Don't be scared to take on the leader on Sunday if he is vulnerable.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Santiago Tarrio 125/1
Accurate driver of the ball who finished 16th last week. Scores got better each day and he's one to watch when on form.
Lucas Bjerregaard 200/1
Lucas was 3rd at Celtic Manor five starts ago and you'd be forgiven for thinking that was a flash in the pan given he's missed three of his next four cuts. However, his long game has been in tidy shape for each of those events and for each of the three cuts he missed, he was either on the cut number or on the cut number plus one.
Victor Dubuisson 200/1
Dubuisson ranks 15th in the season long SG: Tee to Green stats and drove the ball nicely last week. There's always a question of motivation with the fishing obsessed Frenchman but he should surely be pumped up for his home Open.
In-play
Open de France In-Play Blog
24 September 2022, 6:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hojgaard R |
-12 |
| Coetzee |
-11 |
| Barjon |
-10 |
| Pieters |
-10 |
| Paul |
-9 |
| Rozner |
-9 |
| Two Players Tied |
-8 |
Round 3 Summary
Rasmus Hojgaard shocked everyone with an EIGHT at the par 3 2nd where he hit the water three times and in the end did well to not make nine. He followed it with another trip to the water at the 3rd but in fairness to him recovered well, managing to hold the lead despite another bogey on 18. Thomas Pieters made a significant move with a 66 and George Coetzee is now the closest challenger after a 68.
Round 4 Weather
Cloudy with scattered showers. Wind is expected to blow around 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
We mentioned that Hojgaard has never won from the front before and backers must have lost a lot of confidence in him after today. The putter saved what could have been a catastrophic round and we expect him to be hunted down tomorrow having had his lead cut by five today. Odds of 2/1 feel very short with an established winner like Coetzee one back and the obvious threat of Pieters two back.
Although on the sunshine tour, Coetzee won as recently as August, and also won the Portugal Masters two years ago. He has been putting to a high standard for some weeks now and if he can do it when it counts again tomorrow, he has a strong chance. We don't want to be backing someone at 4/1 who isn't performing highly tee to green at Le Golf National.
Despite being two back, Pieters looks the most likley winner. The Belgian won in Abu Dhabi and hunted down Hao Tong Li at the BMW International Open to reach a playoff in June. If pushed to back one of the front three in the betting, Pieters at 4/1 would be preferred.
Where is the value?
This event is still wide open and we saw how quickly things can change last week when Bob MacIntyre started like a train. Three of our pre-event selections are in the top 15 within six shots, so we're hoping for a lot of drama tomorrow!
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Victor Perez 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)
Perez was well fancied before the event but we were put off by odds of 25/1. He now finds himself five back of Hojgaard at a bigger price but we know how quickly things can change here and Perez is a player we can trust in contention, winning the Dutch Open in May and only Bob MacIntyre outplayed him on Sunday last week when finishing 3rd. He ranked 4th for greens in regulation today and 2nd for driving accuracy so the game is there. Should he convert a few more chances and get some help from the leaders, odds of 40/1 look very generous.
23 September 2022, 9:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hojgaard R |
-15 |
| Barjon |
-9 |
| Coetzee |
-8 |
| Rozner |
-7 |
| Bjork |
-7 |
| Decottignies-Lafon |
-6 |
| Five Players Tied |
-5 |
Round 2 Summary
Rasmus Hojgaard continues where he left off in round one and opened up an eight shot gap over those players who played in the morning. Paul Barjon and George Coetzee managed to reduce his lead slightly but he still leads by six shots with two rounds left to play. Conditions were flat calm and as easy as Le Golf National can play.
Round 3 Weather
Cloudy with light rain. Wind is expected to blow around 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rasmus Hojgaard is a best price 1/2 and although he's been exceptional through the opening two rounds we see no need to take the odds on offer. Le Golf National can test even the best front runners and Rasmus has yet to prove he's a proven winner from out front.
Two of the last five winners of the Open de France led at this stage but none of them had a lead as commanding as the young Dane.
Paul Barjon, Antoine Rozner and George Coetzee are all rated as 14/1 shots. We tipped Barjon at 175/1 at the start of the week and it's somewhat frustrating that he's best of the rest. The Frenchman is 3rd in the SG: Tee to Green stats and is playing nicely. He's a better chaser than he is front runner so coming from off the pace may not be a bad thing and we're quietly confident he'll apply the pressure to Hojgaard on Sunday.
Antoine Rozner will be keen to reel the leader in after Hojgaard got the better of him at the Mauritius Open back in December 2019. George Coetzee was 3rd in this event in 2019 and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him hang around, even if his putter has been his biggest weapon so far.
Where is the value?
With pre-event interest in Barjon already, we're happy to leave the outright market alone.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Paul Barjon to beat Rasmus Hojgaard and George Coetzee 11/4 @ Betfair
It's a small play given the form Rasmus Hojgaard has shown through the opening two rounds. However, we have a suspicion he will play more defensively tomorrow and that may allow the chasers to outscore him. As we've already mentioned, Coetzee has been at his best with the putter this week and although he is a danger, Barjon has been better tee to green and we don't have him as an 11/4 chance. Let's not forget, Barjon won on the Canadian Tour in 2019, was twice a runner up on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021.
22 September 2022, 8:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hojgaard R |
-9 |
| Bjork |
-7 |
| Barjon |
-6 |
| Pulkannen |
-5 |
| Donaldson |
-5 |
| Morrison |
-5 |
| Brun |
-5 |
| Players Tied |
-4 |
Round 1 Summary
We thought we were in a great position with our pre-event 175/1 tip Paul Barjon leading the way out of the morning starters however Rasmus Hojgaard went three shots better in the afternoon and Alexander Bjork is alone in 2nd place, two behind Hojgaard.
Round 2 Weather
Cloudy with light winds of 3-6mph. No draw bias of note.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rasmus Hojgaard was exceptional today, in particular his approach play and putting, and is a justified 14/5 favourite. There have been plenty occasions of late where he has started fast and went backwards though, most recently at the Scottish Open and also at the Dutch Open and Texas Open over in the PGA. The problem seems to be maintaining his brilliance and we're in no rush to take that price.
Alexander Bjork is a course specialist with two top 10's in a row and a big danger two behind Hojgaard. Alex Noren won here following similar course form and Bjork could easily follow a similar path. We expect Bjork to push on tomorrow and contend over the weekend but odds of 13/2 are about right.
Where is the value?
Rasmus looks too short but there is only one player catching our eye at the prices in the outright market. There is one three ball which also looks a spot of value.
Round 2 Bets
- 2pts Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Romain Langasque and Ryan Fox 7/4 @ Skybet
Olesen won this match by one shot over Ryan Fox today but that is about as close as it could have been. Fox is playing without his usual clubs this week and it showed today, ranking outside the top 100 for greens in regulation. Langasque has been well out of sorts recently and a 79 today is further evidence of his tee to green decline. Olesen has some great course memories here, including a 5&4 victory over Jordan Spieth at the Ryder Cup and should kick on from here.
- 0.5pts Each Way Jazz Janewattananond 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Jazz is six shots back and looks a touch overpriced for a player of his quality. Jazz has been as high as 38th in the world rankings before and although he is out of form, showed he can still pop up at Celtic Manor earlier this year - a course which correlates very strongly to here. Ranked 6th for driving accuracy today which bodes well for the test ahead.
