Preview
Open de Espana Course Info
Designer: Javier Arana
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Tight
Greens: Small
Par 5's: 4th, 7th and 14th.
Premium on: Birdies and all round game.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Although Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has only hosted three editions of the Open de Espana, it did also hold the 2008 Madrid Masters.
Open de Espana Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 3mph.
Friday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 7mph.
Saturday
Light rain showers with a gentle breeze. Wind 11mph.
Sunday
Possible rain showers with a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph.
Open de Espana Trends
Winning Score
Jon Rahm won lats year with a score of -25, six shots clear of the runner up. Rafa Cabrera Bello won with a score of -19 in 2021, whilst Jon Rahm won with a score of -22 in 2019. Expect a winning score around -20 this week.
Winning Profile
Jon Rahm dominated this event in 2022 and 2019, winning by six and five shots. Rafa Cabrera Bello won last year after a playoff with Adri Arnaus. Both winners were proven winners on Tour.
Nationality
Spaniards have thrived at their home event in recent years. The top three were Spaniards in 2019 and the top two were Spaniards in 2021 and Rahm won again in 2022 .
Course form
Jon Rahm had course form of 1-17 before his win last year. The top two in 2021 both played well at the 2019 Open de Espana. Both Rafa Cabrera Bello and Adri Arnaus finished in the top five in 2019.
Recent form
Rahm was 2nd in his previous start at the BMW PGA Championship prior to his 2022 win whilst runner up PAvon had missed the cut at the Alfred Dunhill Links.
Interestingly, the Alfred Dunhill Links was played the week before this event in 2019 and 2021. In 2021, five of the top eight missed the cut in Scotland. In 2019, eight of the top 11 played the Dunhill before coming to Spain. Of those eight, five missed the cut in Scotland and two couldn't better 60th. In short, ignore Dunhill form.
Open de Espana Stats Analysis
With only three years of Strokes Gained data available (2019, 2021 and 2022), we will look at the stats of the top two in each year.
SG: Off The Tee
The top two in 2022 ranked 3rd and 1st. The top two in 2021 ranked 35th and 50th. The top two in 2019 ranked 1st and 14th. Driving has been important two of the the three years here.
Driving Accuracy
The top two in 2022 ranked 48th and 7th. The top two in 2021 ranked 26th and 105th. The top two in 2019 ranked 4th and 5th. In general, driving accuracy helps at Club de Campo Madrid but Rahm showed it's not essential.
Driving Distance
The top two in 2022 ranked 2nd and 12th. The top two in 2021 ranked 79th and 61st. The top two in 2019 ranked 7th and 29th. Preferred but not essential.
SG: Approach
The top two in 2022 ranked 24th and 19th. The top two in 2021 ranked 6th and 46th. The top two in 2019 ranked 17th and 5th. As ever, strong iron play is very much a factor but wasn't the main factor last year.
SG: Around The Green
The top two in 2022 ranked 5th and 30th. The top two in 2021 ranked 30th and 11th. The top two in 2019 ranked 20th and 37th. Interestingly, a tidy short game has been a factor at past events.
SG: Putting
The top two in 2022 ranked 6th and 31st. The top two in 2021 ranked 28th and 1st. The top two in 2019 ranked 15th and 43rd. A hot putter can guide you to the top here.
2023 Open de Espana Tips
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In-play
Open de Espana In-Play Blog
14 October 2023, 8:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pavon |
-16 |
| Kimsey |
-14 |
| Lombard |
-12 |
| Lorenzo-Vera |
-12 |
| Garcia-Heredia |
-12 |
| Langasque |
-12 |
| Four players tied |
-11 |
2023 Open De Espana Round 3 Summary
Matthieu Pavon extended his lead to two shots with an impressive round of 66. The expected charge from Jon Rahm once again failed to materialise, the home favourite once again having an off day on the greens.
2023 Open De Espana Round 4 Weather
Sunny intervals. Wind 3-6mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
Matthieu Pavon has shortened to 6/4 with a two shot lead over Nathan Kimsey and a four shot lead to the rest of the chasing pack. We backed Pavon at the start of the week at 60/1 in the 'without Rahm' market and we are certainly hoping he can get the job done tomorrow.
We discussed in yesterday's blog the fact that Pavon had previously been poor when front running but he showed no signs of nerves when leading today. It has been almost two years since he last held a 54 hole head (2021 Portugal Masters) and if he is to win, he'll need to better previous efforts in contentio.
In Pavon's favour is the fact that the last three winners of this event have led going into the final round. It should however be acknowledged that Jon Rahm won two of those events and Pavon is certainly not the closer Rahm is!
Pavon's price isn't one we would be backing if we weren't already on him. However, it's not a price we would be looking to lay either with Nathan Kimsey the only challenger within two shots. For all that the leader has been poor previously, he may only require a round of one or two under par in round four to win.
In-Play Open De Espana Bets We Considered
Marcus Helligkilde was the player we considered backing given he impressed when shooting 64 in round three. However, we're content to let our Pavon bet play out.
Open De Espana Round 4 Bets
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13 October 2023, 8:05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pavon |
-11 |
| Besseling |
-10 |
| Sharma |
-10 |
| Lorenzo-Vera |
-9 |
| Garcia-Heredia |
-9 |
| Kimsey |
-8 |
| Eleven players tied |
-7 |
2023 Open De Espana Round 2 Summary
Matthieu Pavon bounced back from a slow start to birdie four of his last six holes and take a one stroke lead into the weekend in Madrid.
2023 Open De Espana Round 3 Weather
Light rain in the morning, clearing late afternoon. Wind 4-7mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
Mathieu Pavon is 9/2 favourite but he is yet to win on the DP World Tour.
We backed Pavon at 60/1 in the 'without Rahm' market at the start of the week and would actually have preferred Jon Rahm to have taken control of this tournament, with Pavon playing the role of chaser. Pavon's last halfway lead on the DP World Tour ended disastrously, his 36 hole lead at the Italian Open in May turned into a 39th place finish! The two previous occasions he led at halfway didn't end much better - a 10th place finish at the 2018 Irish Open and a 31st at the 2018 Oman Open.
The Frenchman's past performances certainly indicate he should be opposed and the fact he has relied upon his short game (4th SG: Putting and 6th SG: Around the Greens v 20th SG: Tee to Green) so far this week doesn't bode well. We're obviously hoping he can hold on but we are certainly looking to add others to the staking plan.
In-Play Open De Espana Bets We Considered
The last three winners of this event have been inside the top six at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. However, with doubts over the front running capabilities of Pavon, we're certainly considering those further down the leaderboard. Overnight rain should soften the course and it wouldn't be a surprise to see some change on the leaderboard at the end of round three.
Alejandro Del Rey was the player who came closes to being tipped given his stellar play over the opening two rounds. He ranks second for SG: Tee to Green through the opening 36 holes.
Open De Espana Round 3 Bets
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12 October 2023, 10:45pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pavon |
-8 |
| Besseling |
-7 |
| Lorenzo-Vera |
-6 |
| Pepperell |
-6 |
| Figuerredo |
-6 |
| Eleven players tied |
-5 |
2023 Open De Espana Round 1 Summary
Matthieu Pavon replicated his strong start last year with an opening 63 to lead by one over Will Besseling. Hot favourite Jon Rahm is off to a steady start after a 67, four back of Pavon and remains close to his starting price of around 9/4.
2023 Open De Espana Round 2 Weather
Sunny and Warm. Wind 8-12mph.
Back or Lay The Favourite?
We would urge caution if planning on laying Rahm. He drove the ball beautifully today and missed countless chances on the greens. The leaderboard isn't stacked full of 'closers' and it's likely he makes up some ground tomorrow.
In-Play Open De Espana Bets We Considered
We were extremely tempted to back Rahm this evening but we also like the chances of Pavon and Besseling, who are both talking a good game after their round. We have Pavon at 60/1 in the 'without Rahm' market so don't need to worry about Rahm and we're very much glad that's the case! Besseling at 28/1 looks the each way value but he could well be playing for places if Rahm's putter heats up.
Open De Espana Round 2 Bets
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