Preview
Course Info
Designer: Javier Arana
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Tight
Greens: Small
Par 5's: 4th, 7th and 14th.
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Although Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has only hosted two editions of the Open de Espana, it did also hold the 2008 Madrid Masters.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 5mph.
Friday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 3mph.
Saturday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 2mph.
Sunday
Possible rain showers with a gentle breeze. Wind 4mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Rafa Cabrera Bello won with a score of -19 last year and Jon Rahm won with a score of -22 in 2019. Expect a winning score around -20 this week.
Winning Profile
Jon Rahm dominated this event in 2019, winning by five shots. Rafa Cabrera Bello won last year after a playoff with Adri Arnaus. Both winners were proven winners on Tour.
Nationality
Spaniards have thrived at their home event in recent years. The top three were Spaniards in 2019 and the top two were Spaniards last year.
Course form
The top two last year both played well at the 2019 Open de Espana. Both Rafa Cabrera Bello and Adri Arnaus finished in the top five in 2019.
Recent form
Interestingly, the Alfred Dunhill Links was played the week before this event in 2019 and 2021. In 2021, five of the top eight missed the cut in Scotland. In 2019, eight of the top 11 played the Dunhill before coming to Spain. Of those eight, five missed the cut in Scotland and two couldn't better 60th. In short, ignore Dunhill form.
Stats Analysis
With only two years of Strokes Gained data available (2019 and 2021), we will look at the stats of the top two in each year.
SG: Off The Tee
The top two in 2021 ranked 35th and 50th. The top two in 2019 ranked 1st and 14th. Contrasting outcomes from the two events, driving was much less important in 2021 than 2019.
Driving Accuracy
The top two in 2021 ranked 26th and 105th. The top two in 2019 ranked 4th and 5th. Arnaus did not drive the ball well last year but made up with it with a hot putter. In general you need accuracy at Club de Campo Madrid.
Driving Distance
The top two in 2021 ranked 79th and 61st. The top two in 2019 ranked 7th and 29th. Preferred but not essential.
SG: Approach
The top two in 2021 ranked 6th and 46th. The top two in 2019 ranked 17th and 5th. As ever, strong iron play is very much a factor this week.
SG: Around The Green
The top two in 2021 ranked 30th and 11th. The top two in 2019 ranked 20th and 37th. Interestingly, a tidy short game has been a factor at past events.
SG: Putting
The top two in 2021 ranked 28th and 1st. The top two in 2019 ranked 15th and 43rd.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Adri Arnaus 18/1
The Spaniard posted three strong rounds at last week's Alfred Dunhill Links and was runner up in this event last year. Price was just a little too short with Jon Rahm in attendance
Santiago Tarrio 125/1
Tarrio missed the cut last week but had made four of his five cuts prior to that. A respectable 24th place finish last year meant he was under consideration on home soil.
Mike Lorenzo Vera 150/1
One of the few players in this field to have ever made it inside the world's top 100, he finished 17th at this event last year. Odds were very tempting for a player who has a touch of class in this field.
In-play
Open de Espana In-Play Blog
8th October 2022, 9:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Rahm |
-16 |
| M W Lee |
-15 |
| Gallacher |
-13 |
| Warren |
-13 |
| Aphibarnrat |
-13 |
| Pepperell |
-13 |
| Pavon |
-13 |
| De Jager |
-13 |
Round 3 Summary
Jon Rahm and Min Woo Lee shot rounds of 65 and 66 to break away from the chasing pack and establish themselves at the top of the leaderboard.
Round 4 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 3-6mph. A chance of rain showers.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is now a best price of 8/13. The Spaniard has been favourite all week and looks set to win at Club de Campo Madrid for the 2nd time. He leads the field in SG: Tee to Green this week and he's the man we see winning tomorrow.
Min Woo Lee can be backed at 4/1 and is likely to challenge Rahm all the way. It will certainly help Lee that he played alongside the world number six in the opening two rounds and he was able to match his score over those 36 holes. It is worth noting that Min Woo Lee has played the opening four holes in -7 this week, whilst Jon Rahm has played the same holes in -1. Those of you who trade on the Betfair exchange may wish to keep that in mind.
Where is the value?
Jon Rahm is the player we see winning tomorrow but with odds of only 8/13 available, we're content to sit the final round out. Stephen Gallacher was under consideration to win his threeball at 14/5 and we wouldn't put you off a small bet on him for a bit of fun but no official bets from us for the final round.
Round 4 Bet
7th October 2022, 11:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Waring |
-12 |
| Gallacher |
-12 |
| Du Plessis |
-11 |
| Drysdale |
-11 |
| Five players tied |
-10 |
Round 2 Summary
Players once again went low in Madrid, Paul Waring and Stephen Gallacher shooting 63 and 65 respectively to take the lead.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 4-8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm has drifted to 6/4 and it's definitely an appealing price. Poor for much of the front nine, the favourite rallied on the back nine and finished with four birdies in his last seven holes. He ranks 4th for SG: Tee to Green through the opening two rounds.
Paul Waring and Hennie Du Plessis are next in the betting at 8/1 but neither has particularly impressed when in contention. Neither are fancied to be able to stand up to Rahm on Sunday and single figure odds are to be avoided.
Min Woo Lee is available at 12/1 and he makes much more appeal. A winner of a Rolex series event, he defeated Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry to win the Scottish Open last year. He ranks 8th SG: Tee to Green and is capable of low scores over the weekend.
Where is the value?
With Jon Rahm and Min Woo Lee considered the most likely winners, we considered taking the even money Skybet are offering on either player winning. However, with bookmakers still offering four each way laces, w've opted for several players with strong each way chances.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Alfredo Garcia-Herdia 80/1 @ Skybet/Boylesports (1/5 1-4)
- 0.5pts Each Way Zander Lombard 100/1 @ Skybet/Boylesports (1/5 1-4)
Lombard is at -7 whilst Garcia Heredia is at -8. Both players rank highly in the SG: Tee to Green rankings through the opening two rounds and both are fancied to make a move up the leaderboard over the weekend. Garcia-Heredia was a winner on the Challenge Tour last year and three of his four best career performances have come in Spain. He clearly enjoys playing in front of his home fans and can be expected to continue his play over the weekend. Lombard struggles for consistency but when the long game clicks he can generally be relied upon to post a big finish. Odds of 100/1 are sufficiently appealing for a player who is a three time runner up on the DP World Tour.
6th October 2022, 8:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Aphibarnrat |
-8 |
| Van Driel |
-8 |
| Wu |
-8 |
| Lagergren |
-7 |
| Rahm |
-7 |
| Pavon |
-7 |
| Three players tied |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
Ideal scoring conditions saw players go low. There was no real difference in wind in the morning and afternoon, the top six on the leaderboard were an even mix of early/late starters.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with light winds of 3-6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is a best price 21/20 and it's not unreasonable. The Spaniard ranked 3rd SG: Tee to Green for his opening round and given his record at this course, he's very much favoured to go on and win.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is 11/1 in the betting. The Thai golfer was interviewed on the course and said playing on the DP World Tour was like being back home. He has his mum with him this week and certainly won't be feeling lonely, as he has complained of in the past. A four time winner on the DP World Tour, he's respected.
Where is the value?
With conditions set to be ideal once again we considered the 2nd round leader market. Stephen Gallacher played really nicely in the opening round and is available at 35/1 to lead after 36 holes. However, there are enough players in front of him, including Rahm, to put us off.
Round 2 Bets
With Jon Rahm lurking, there isn't anything at this stage which makes any appeal. We will update this page if we see any threeball bets of interest.
