Preview

Course Info

Designer: Javier Arana
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Tight
Greens: Small
Par 5's: 4th, 7th and 14th.
Premium on: Accuracy

Significant Info To Be Aware Of 

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. 

Weather Forecast 

Thursday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 3mph.

Friday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 5mph.

Saturday
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 6mph.

Sunday 
Sunny with a gentle breeze. Wind 6mph.

Trends

Winning Profile 
Jon Rahm dominated this event in 2019, winning by five shots.  At the time he was world number 5.

Course form
This course is ony being used for the second time in recent years.  Spanish players filled the top three positions in 2019 so course knowledge was a definite advantage.

Recent form
Interestingly, the Alfred Dunhill Links was played the week before this event in 2019.  Eight of the top 11 played the Dunhill before coming to Spain.  Of those eight, five missed the cut in Scotland and two couldn't better 60th.  Only Zander Lombard had cracked the top 30 before placing 7th in Spain.  In short, ignore Dunhill form.

Stats Analysis

Driving
The top 5 recorded players (Samuel Del Val didn't have recorded stats) ranked 1-14-34-7-84 for SG: Off The Tee.  Driving Accuracy rankings for those top 5 were 4-5-18-41-45.  Driving Distance was

Approach
The top 5 recorded players ranked 17-5-28-50-12 for SG: Approach.  Greens in Regulation are a clear advantage, with the top 5 recorded players ranking 15-14-3-2-18.

Putting
The top 5 recorded players ranked 15-43-17-23-37.

In-play

Open de Espana In-Play Blog

10th October 2021, 08.55am (UK time)

As expected, a Spaniard moved to the top of the leaderboard through 54 holes at the Open de Espana.  However, it wasn't the Spaniard that we, or most others, thought it would be.

Rafa Cabrera Bello produced a bogey free 64 to take up a two shot lead whilst Jon Rahm stumbled with a round of 72.  The world number 1 was out of sorts all day, complaining about crowd distractions and letting his frustrations boil over.

Rahm now finds himself six shots off the pace and whilst it's not insurmountable, he surely needs help from the man at the top.

Cabrera Bello, in contrast to Rahm, looked composed throughout and was unlucky not to extend his lead as several birdie putts shaved the edge of the hole coming in.  He's now 5/4 favourite to win his 4th European Tour title.  In his favour is the fact he hasn't made a bogey in 37 holes and the quality of chasers aren't top class.

Adri Arnaus is 3/1 second favourite but he's disappointed far too often when in contention to take into consideration.  A bogey from the middle of the 12th fairway yesterday was a reflection of the type of errors he still makes when in contention.

Julien Guerrier is next in the betting at 9/1 and he too has had problems getting the job done at the weekend.  We were on him at 175/1 when he held a five shot lead through 36 holes at last year's Portugal Masters and he ended up finishing 15th!  It's been almost 4 years since he recorded a top 5 finish and we don't see him doing it today either.

Cabrera Bello's biggest threat could well be himself.  Without a win since 2017, that winless streak may well play on his mind.  He's failed to convert his last six 54 hole leads so he's a player who much prefers coming from off the pace.  Interestingly, he mentioned in his post round interview that he is trying to complete the full set of Spanish golf titles, having won every Spanish amateur title through the age groups.  Will that weigh on his mind?

Ultimately, we see Cabrera Bello winning this.  He has the Nappy Factor, having become a dad for the 2nd time in August (his first son) and his experience should be enough to see off the challenge of those around him.

Conditions for the final round will once again be ideal with sunshine and minimal (3mph) wind. 

Round 4 Bet

• 1.5pts Each Way Jon Rahm 12/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-3)

We see Rafa Cabrera Bello winning but we don't rate his nearest challengers and see the two each way positions as being up for grabs.  There is no danger of Rahm downing tools and not trying today in his national Open and if anything, having no pressure may well help him.  He was exceptionally poor yesterday but we shouldn't forget his 72 was the first time he had failed to shoot 67 or better in seven competitive rounds at Club de Campo.  Should Cabrera Bello feel the pressure early on, we may even see Rahm mount a charge for the title.  If you can't get on at Boylesports or any of the firms offering three each way places, we wouldn't advise taking the bet.