Preview
Course Info
Designer: Renovated by Seve Ballesteros
Type of Course: Short and fiddly, elevated by 4000ft above sea level.
Used Since: 1939. No event in 2020.
Fairways: Tree-lined and undulating.
Greens: Small, Undulated, Poa/Bent.
Water Hazard: In-play on six holes, all of which on the back nine.
Par 5's: 9th, 14th and 15th.
Premium on: Form at altitude.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
We have plenty of course form here to help us. The altitude and uniqueness of the course gives it a character all of its own.
At 6,848 yards, it is one of the shortest on tour. The ball travels 10% further due to altitude so emphasis is on plotting your way round.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny and a moderate breeze. Wind max 12mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny and a gentle breeze. Possibility of a thunderstorm. Wind max 8mph.
Saturday
Rain showers with a chance of thunder and a moderate breeze. Wind max 10mph.
Sunday
Rain showers with a chance of thunder and a moderate breeze. Wind max 10mph.
Trends
Winning score
Since 2001 has ranged from -13 to -20.
Winning Profile
We have plenty of repeat winners here: Fitzpatrick (2017 and 2018), Bjorn (2011 and 2013) and Noren (2009 and 2016). Soderberg was ranked 287th before his win in 2019 but the majority of recent winners have been of a high European Tour calibre.
Recent Form
Five of the last six winners had a top 10 in their previous start. It may pay to back an in form player this week.
Course Form
The last two winners, Rasmus Hojgaard and Sebastian Soderberg, won on their debuts but the four winners prior had two top 10's at Crans previously. Due to it's unique nature, look for some sort of course form this week.
Stats Analysis
We only have three years worth of Strokes Gained stats so we use traditional stats for the past five years to gain an additional insight.
SG: Off The Tee
The past three winners ranked 2-16-2. Putting yourself in good positions off the tee is a huge advantage.
Driving Distance
The past five winners ranked 40-35-134-87-69.
Driving Accuracy
The past five winners ranked 3-53-5-34-89.
SG: Approach
The past three winners ranked 6-52-27.
Greens in Regulation
The past five winners ranked 5-56-3-21-29. Hitting the small greens this week is advantageous.
SG: Around The Green
The past three winners ranked 118-16-35.
SG: Putting
The past three winners ranked 17-27-35.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th were among the five hardest holes on the course last year. Do keep this in mind if betting in-play.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5's and the driveable par 4 7th played easiest in 2021.
Fast or Slow Start
Catch up is possible. Only one winner (Sebastian Soderberg - 2019) in the past five years has been inside the top 12 after the opening round. Three of the last five winners have been outside the top 30 after round one.
The last five winners have all been inside the top 15 after round two. Rasmus Hojgaard was the first winner in the last five years to have won from a position outside the top 10 after three rounds.
In-play
Omega European Masters In-Play Blog
27 August 2022, 9.10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lawrence |
-17 |
| Wallace |
-14 |
| Jamieson |
-13 |
| Mansell |
-13 |
| Canizares |
-12 |
| Kawamura |
-12 |
| Arnaus |
-12 |
Round 3 Summary
The forecasted bad weather didn't materialise and players were able to complete their 2nd round before the third round was played from a two tee start. Thriston Lawrence played the best out of the leaders and has opened up a gap of three shots on the field.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I’m confident going into tomorrow. It will be nice to see where we are after four rounds. (There is) a lot of golf to be played so just stick to the process, stick to the game plan, and just enjoy it." Thriston Lawrence
"I’ve been through a lot. I lost my game middle to end of last year, wasn’t practising. I realised that’s not how I was going to get better, had to sort that out, change a few things in my team. Not blaming them, just needed to change. I feel like I’m back. Feel like I’m nearly there and I’ve got different shots. I’m getting a bit emotional about it, but it means everything to me." Matt Wallace
Round 4 Weather
Small chance of a shower late in the afternoon but conditions should perfect for most of the day. Wind 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Thriston Lawrence is 5/6 favourite and is deservedly odds on after a relatively assured performance in round three. He tops the SG: Tee to Green stats by a long way this week and he will win should he continue his level of play over the opening three days.
However, Lawrence has yet to win a tournament on the DP World Tour on a Sunday, having been gifted the Joburg Open at the end of last year when it was reduced to 54 holes. With the 1st, 2nd and 4th holes ranking as three of the four hardest holes this week, we're inclined to see how he fares on those holes before we consider backing him.
Matt Wallace (11/2) is 2nd in the betting after birdieing the last two holes. The Englishman failed to birdie either of the par 5s on the back nine and was in truth lucky to par them after finding water and trees. He'll need to improve in the final round but it's encouraging he still made a score despite not having his best golf.
Richard Mansell is third in the betting at 10/1 but he's been poor in contention of late and others are preferred.
Where is the value?
Rasmus Hojgaard surged through the field last year to win from 15th position. However, three of the last five winners were in the top three after round three. Adri Arnaus was under consideration given he won the Catalunya Championship from well off the pace earlier this year. However, his price (16/1) is no more than fair and we're instead drawn to a player in the group at 11 under par.
Round 4 Bet
- 0.5pts Win Only Antoine Rozner 45/1 @ Skybet
We backed Antoine at the start of the week and were frustrated as he opened with a 70 on Thursday. However, rounds of 65 and 64 followed and he's now in 8th position with an outside chance of winning. His tee to green game has once again been excellent, ranking 5th SG: Tee to Green. His putting is a constant source of frustration but he can run hot with the flat stick and his four career wins have all been achieved with strong final rounds. He closed here last year with a final round 62, a similar effort would give him a very good chance.
26 August 2022, 10.30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lawrence (thru 14) |
-13 |
| Canizares (thru 13) |
-13 |
| Siem |
-10 |
| Elvira |
-10 |
| Jamieson |
-9 |
| Mansell |
-9 |
| De Jager (thru 12) |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Electrical activity in the area meant that play was delayed for several hours and almost all the afternoon starters were unable to finish their 2nd round. Alejandro Canizares and Thriston Lawrence continue to lead the way.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"She came at 8 o'clock on the Monday morning. We have little Martina in the family now. I'm actually very happy. I started a bit shaky - off the tee I wasn't very accurate - but the iron game has been feeling on point this week and especially the putting has been helping me. I'm putting really well. I'm very happy and very comfortable with the putter." Nacho Elvira
"I love this place. The first time I came here I fell in love with it. It’s a very tricky golf course, very strategic, you have to be very careful with the tee-shots. I like that, it’s not a putting contest around here. The crowds are always very nice to me, very supportive. Very good memories, I’ve finished second and a few times fifth and fourth." Marcel Siem
Round 3 Weather
It looks like there will be further weather disruption with fog forecast for the early morning and possible thunderstorms again in the afternoon. Wind 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Thriston Lawrence is 7/4 favourite but we remain of the opinion that he's a short price. He has a 10ft birdie putt at the 15th hole when play resumes tomorrow and those of you who are on the ball may wish to see if he makes that before taking the available odds.
Alejandro Canizares is 13/2 2nd favourite and he would be preferred to Lawrence solely on price. There's no doubt the Spaniard has been struggling of late but he's always been a player who misses plenty of cuts and he appears to have found something in his game this week.
Where is the value?
As we highlighted in the preview, the last five winners have been inside the top 15 at the halfway point. With further weather disruptions likely, we aren't looking too far down the leaderboard. Matt Wallace made appeal at 14/1. The Englishman has a 25ft eagle putt when play resumes and could easily end round two at -10 or better.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Eduardo de la Riva 150/1 @ Spreadex (1/4 1-4)
With thunderstorms a possibility on both Saturday and Sunday, a three round tournament isn't out of the question. With that in mind, we have steered away from Matt Wallace and instead opted for Eduardo de la Riva at huge odds. The Spaniard has nine holes remaining of his 2nd round and has the opportunity to get himself to at least ten under par. Such a score would put him in the each way places and were the weather to reduce the tournament to three rounds, in a nice position to land a return.
25 August 2022, 9.00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Canizares |
-8 |
| Lawrence |
-8 |
| Jamieson |
-6 |
| Wallace |
-6 |
| De Jager |
-6 |
| De La Riva |
-6 |
| Eight Players Tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
The morning starters got the best of things, with only one of the top six teeing off in the afternoon.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I kept going, kept hitting good shots. It felt almost like it was unconscious. That is what I’m working on, to forget about technique and let it go. It’s difficult if you don’t practise it enough. I did that today. Putted great, made two up-and-downs on the last two. I’m over the moon. (Shooting a 62) might change how I feel, but my goal will be the same. Focus on my targets, to just believe, and let it go. That’s my target for the week. I know I can putt, I know I can make great up-and-downs – I’ve just got to let it happen." Alejandro Canizares
"Started off nicely, a lot of fairways, a lot of greens, gave myself a lot of 15-footers and managed to make a few.." Thriston Lawrence
Round 2 Weather
Chance of showers in the afternoon. Wind 8-12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Thriston Lawrence is 9/2 favourite and the only player priced up at single figure odds. However, 9/2 seems incredibly short considering there are 14 players within three shots of the lead.
Matt Wallace and Rasmus Hojgaard are next in the betting at 11/1 and 12/1 and both would appeal more than Lawrence.
Where is the value?
As we highlighted in the preview, only one winner (Sebastian Soderberg - 2019) in the past five years has been inside the top 12 after the opening round. Three of the last five winners have been outside the top 30 after round one. With that in mind we are looking at those players a few shots off the pace.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Richie Ramsay 40/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
Richie won two starts ago at the Cazoo Classic and we were surprised to see him priced up at 40/1 after a solid opening round. A past winner here, he also has several other top 10 finishes to his name at this venue. With the weather set to be unpredictable over the next few days, Ramsay should enjoy the test and 40/1 is a price we want to take.
- 1pt Each Way Marcel Siem TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 40/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-3)
Marcel shot an opening 65 and finds himself three shots off the lead. He has a morning tee time and has the opportunity to post a score for others to chase. He played solidly from tee to green in round one, ranking 12th for Greens in Regulation. A similar performance tomorrow should see him create birdie chances and 40/1 is sufficiently tempting to draw us in.
