Event Info
Starts: 26th August 2021
Course: Crans-sur-Sierre GC, Switzerland
Par: 70
Length: 6,848 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +12.34pts
Pre-Event Bets: +21.84pts
1pt Each Way Guido Migliozzi 35/1@ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
1pt Each Way Ritchie Ramsay 45/1@ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts Each Way David Horsey 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts Each Way Lorenzo Gagli 350/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
1.5pts Ross McGowan Top 20 Finish 18/1 @ Sporting Index
In-Play Bets: -9.5pts
26 August 2021(-5pts)
3pts Win Only Marcus Armitage 11/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Sebastian Soderberg 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
27 August 2021(-2pts)
1pt Each Way Jorge Campillo 40/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-4)
28 August 2021(-2.5pts)
2.5pts WIN ONLY John Catlin 12/1 @ William Hill
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Renovated by Seve Ballesteros
Type of Course: Short and fiddly, elevated by 4000ft above sea level.
Used Since: 1939. No event in 2020.
Fairways: Tree-lined and undulating.
Rough: N/A
Greens: Small, Undulated, Poa/Bent.
Water Hazard: In-play on six holes, all of which on the back nine.
Par 5's: 9th, 14th and 15th.
Premium on: Form at altitude.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
We have years and years of form here to help us. The altitude and uniqueness of the course gives it a character all of its own.
At 6848 yards, it is one of the shortest on tour. The ball travels 10% further due to altitude so emphasis is on plotting your way round.
The field strength is higher than recent weeks with eight of the top 100 players teeing up.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Showers earlier in the week but dry from Thursday onwards. Temperatures in the late teens with a moderate wind to keep the players honest.
Thursday
Partly cloudy and a moderate breeze. Wind max 11mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy and a moderate breeze. Wind max 11mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy and a moderate breeze. Wind max 11mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy and a moderate breeze. Wind max 11mph.
Trends
Winning score
Since 2001 has ranged from -13 to -20 with Soderberg winning in 2019 with -14.
Winning Profile
We have plenty of repeat winners here: Fitzpatrick (2017 and 2018), Bjorn (2011 and 2013) and Noren (2009 and 2016). Soderberg was ranked 287th before his win but the majority of recent winners have been of a high European Tour calibre.
Correlating Courses
The two events played this year in Nairobi, Kenya are also played at altitude so could be a good guide.
Recent Form
Four of the last five winners had a top 10 in their previous start. It may pay to back an in form player this week.
Course Form
Soderberg won on his debut in 2019 but the four winners prior had two top 10's at Crans previously. Due to its unique nature, look for some sort of course form this week.
Stats Analysis
We will focus on the stats of the last five winners from 2019 backwards.
Driving Distance
21-63-44-39-15. Not a key stat here.
Driving Accuracy
31-1-16-49-55. This is a second shot golf course so not key here either.
Greens in Regulation
33-2-13-26-2. Hitting the small greens this week is advantageous.
Scrambling
3-35-2-1-35. Important to recover well as everyone will miss a few greens.
Putts Per GIR
6-8-8-23-15. The winner will putt well on these tough greens.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The 1st, 2nd and 4th were the three toughest in 2019.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5's and the driveable par 4 7th played easiest in 2019.
Fast or Slow Start
Catch up is possible. Soderberg was in 3rd place after round one two years ago but Andres Romero, who lost the playoff, was six back after 18 holes.
In-play
Omega European Masters In-Play Blog
28th August 2021, 9:45pm (UK Time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Crocker | -10 |
| Paratore | -10 |
| McGowan | -9 |
| Campillo | -9 |
| Jordan | -9 |
| Burmester | -8 |
| Catlin | -8 |
| Saddier | -8 |
Chilly and breezy conditions saw the leaderboard change significantly in round 3 in Switzerland.
A best of the day 64 saw Sean Crocker take a share of the lead going into the final round. Runner up last week, he's been knocking on the door of a European Tour win and he'll be hoping to follow in the footsteps of other recent first time winners on the European Tour. Johannes Veerman and Callum Hill both went close to winning in the weeks immediately before their win and having that recent contention experience certainly helps.
Last week's effort was disappointing as he got himself into contention before throwing in bogeys at 14 and 15 to play his way back out of things. It was a similar story at the Alfred Dunhill Championship at the end of 2020, as he played the final two par 5s in four over par. In short, Crocker hasn't shown enough when in the heat of the battle to warrant 7/2 favouritism in our eyes.
The man tied at the top with Crocker is Renato Paratore and we much prefer him to the young American. Paratore impressively won the British Masters last year when leading after 54 holes and that's more than can be said for Crocker so far. A two time winner on Tour, the Italian can blow hot and cold but when he's in the mix he generally impresses (we're willing to set aside his final round at the 2020 Golf in Dubai Championship).
However, even if Paratore is a player we like in the heat of the battle, odds of 5/1 aren't sufficiently enticing. Recent weeks have shown just how difficult players find winning on the European Tour. Only once in the last four years has a leader converted here and we could well see someone from off the pace win this year. Add in the fact that 14 players are within 3 shots of the lead and we can expect some movement on the leaderboard.
Like Paratore, Jorge Campillo is a two time winner on Tour and if he wasn't tipped up yesterday he'd be under serious consideration to be our final round pick. A winner in each of the last two years, he's shown he can handle the pressure on a Sunday. John Catlin and Dean Burmester are two other players who are more than capable of claiming this from off the pace. Both players have won this season and each of their wins came via impressive final rounds. It's certainly set up for an enthralling final round.
Conditions are forecast to be cool again with showers possible.
Round 4 Bet
- 2.5pts WIN ONLY John Catlin 12/1 @ William Hill
John finds himself two shots off the pace going into the final round. He's won three times inside the last 12 months and has shown himself to be one of the finest closers on the European Tour. His long game has been excellent so far this week and if the putter heats up tomorrow he could well be the man to beat. Inside the top 3 for Driving Accuracy and top 10 for Greens In Regulation the past two days, he is primed to make his move. A win tomorrow would make it 4 wins in his last 25 starts. We like his chances.
27th August 2021, 6:15pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Burmester | -11 |
| Detry | -10 |
| Sullivan | -10 |
| Paratore | -9 |
| Five players tied | -8 |
James Morrison opened up a four shot lead on the front nine but he came home in six over par and is now five back.
The trio of afternoon chasers - Dean Burmester, Andy Sullivan and Thomas Detry took full advantage and now head the betting.
Burmester leads by one and is a justified favourite at 7/2. He won as recently as the Tenerife Open in May and he did so convincingly with a final round 62. He was 6th in his last start in Prague and is definitely the man to beat.
Sullivan is a four time winner on tour with his most recent coming in 2020 at the English Championship. He has had a quiet season with only two top 10's and at just a shade over Burmester in price, we wouldn't be getting involved at 9/2.
The usual process would be to oppose Thomas Detry in contention but he is getting closer and closer to that elusive win and both 2nd place finishes this year were due to excellence by the winners - Marcus Armitage and Min Woo Lee. He commented mid round that he's been in Switzerland for a couple of weeks with his family and appears very relaxed. It could finally be his time but we would want bigger than 9/2.
Renato Paratore is alone in 4th and he showed at the 2020 Brittish Masters he can be fearless in contention. He is largely out of form and has only managed a best finish of 7th since that win, which is the only thing slightly putting us off the 18/1 on offer.
There are also a big group of talent at -7/-8, including multiple tour winners Justin Harding, Min Woo Lee and John Catlin, so this event is wide open. There is one more that the bookmakers are disrespecting and he is our only play for round three.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Jorge Campillo 40/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-4)
The Spaniard worked his way into contention nicely with a 64 and sits three back now. He is performing well tee to green and created five birdie opportunities under 15ft today. He has won a tournament each year since 2019 and this looks like a great chance for him to keep the success going. Jorge was only beaten by Viktor Hovland and Martin Kaymer at the BMW International this summer, he doesn't have that quality of opposition this weekend so we're backing him to get the job done.
26th August 2021, 8:20pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Morrison | -10 |
| Armitage | -7 |
| Sciot-Siegrist | -7 |
| Burmester | -6 |
| Sullivan | -6 |
James Morrison threatened a 59 this morning but he will be more than happy with a three shot lead. He is already as short as 4/1 and given how he performed on Sunday of the Hero Open, he may be hard to catch. It would be the biggest win of his career though, and leading from Thursday morning onwards is never easy.
There are only four players within four shots, but three of them have won on tour in the last 13 months - Dean Burmester, Andy Sullivan and Marcus Armitage. The latter was the best of the afternoon starters and will have a great opportunity to set the 36 hole target for Morrison to catch.
It's noticeable only four players from the top 18 were afternoon starters and several early starters commented on how perfect the greens were in the morning. It's possible the scoring will even out a bit so we should expect some low scores early on tomorrow.
Round 2 Bets
- 3pts Win Only Marcus Armitage 11/1 @ Bet365
As mentioned above, Armitage will have a great chance to post a score before Morrison has teed off. He spoke after the round how his patience was rewarded and he is a dangerous player once he finds his game. Marcus got engaged in Crans four years ago so the place holds special memories for him. Don't be surprised to see him win his second tour title here.
- 1pt Each Way Sebastian Soderberg 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Sebastian is defending champion and has opened nicely with an afternoon 66, six shots behind Morrison. He too will have an opportunity to put himself in contention early on. He spoke after the round that he felt he could have been a couple of shots lower and it's evident he is determined to put in a good defence of his title.
