Preview
Event Info
Starts: 10th November 2022
Course: Gary Player CC, Sun City, South Africa
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,819 yards
Course Info
Course Designer: Gary Player
Fairways: Reasonably narrow, premium on accuracy.
Rough: Kikuya rough.
Greens: Bentgrass, 11 on the Stimpmeter.
Water Hazards: In play on 6 holes
Par 5's: 1st, 5th, 11th, 18th
Premium on: Iron Play
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny. Max wind 7mph.
Friday
Sunny. Max wind 6mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Max wind 6mph.
Sunday
Sunny. Max wind 6mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-Sun City hosted the 2020 South African Open. The course has also hosted this event (or a variation of this event) a number of times. The course also plays annual host to the Sun City Challenge on the Sunshine Tour.
-The nines were swapped in 2020 so the back nine played as the front nine and vice versa. The DP World Tour website indicates that the course will revert to the normal configuration this time around.
-The course is at altitude so the ball travels 10-15% further.
Trends
Winning score
Christiaan Bezuidenhout won with a score of -18 at the 2020 South African Open. Other than 2015 (winning score was -19), scoring has ranged between -11 and -15 at the Nedbank events.
Course form
Three of the past four Nedbank champions had a top 10 finish before winning at Sun City. Bezuidenhout had finished a best of 24th at the Nedbank previously.
Recent form
Christiaan Bezuidenhout won the week before winning here in 2020. Every previous winner of the Nedbank had at least a top 25 finish in their two previous starts.
Nationality
Bezuidenhout is from South Africa but no nationality has dominated the Nedbank, the last five winners have been from different countries.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available for last year's South African Open and the 2019, 2018 and 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge.
SG: Off The Tee
Bezuidenhout ranked 42nd in 2020. The last three winners of the Nedbank ranked 3rd, 21st and 12th in this category.
SG: Approach
Bezuidenhout ranked 1st in 2020. The last three winners of the Nedbank ranked inside the top 5 for SG: Approach. Iron play is very important.
SG: Around The Greens
Bezuidenhout ranked 7th in 2020. None of the past three Nedbank champions ranked better than 20th.
SG: Putting
Bezuidenhout ranked 8th in 2020. The last three Nedbank winners ranked 20th, 2nd and 25th.
In Play
Tough Holes
The three closing holes (16, 17 and 18) ranked 3rd, 4th and 1st in terms of difficulty in 2019. These played as the 7th, 8th and 9th in 2020. The 3rd hole ranked the second hardest in 2019, with this playing as the 12th in 2020.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s play under par and were the easiest on the course in 2019 and 2020.
Fast or Slow Start
The top 5 all broke par in their opening round in 2020. Christiaan Bezuidenhout led from start to finish.
At the 2019 Nedbank, the top seven were all under par for their opening round, with six of the top seven shooting a score in the 60s.
In 2018, the top six all broke par in their opening round and in 2017, eight of the top nine shot one under or better.
In-play
Nedbank Golf Challenge In-Play Blog
12th November 2022, 8:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Detry |
-9 |
| Hojgaard |
-9 |
| Lawrence |
-8 |
| Grace |
-8 |
| Bezuidenhout |
-7 |
| Donald |
-7 |
| Three tied |
-6 |
Round 2 & 3 Summary
A topsy-turvy day saw Rasmus Hojgaard and Thomas Detry emerge on top of the leaderboard. Ryan Fox, who was favourite at the start of the day, hit only 1 fairway in his 2nd round and was badly out of sorts for much of the day. Guido Migliozzi recorded a 10 at the 17th hole in round two when only one shot off the lead!
Round 4 Weather
Possible thunderstorms and rain. Wind 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Thomas Detry finds himself as the 3/1 favourite, a position he surely didn't think he would be in after an opening round of 73. That score put him a full nine shots behind round one leader, Ryan Fox.
There is no doubt Detry has been playing some exceptional golf of late. His record since the BMW PGA Championship reads 5-12-9-69-45-2-15. He's yet to win on the DP World Tour though and there are now plenty of high quality chasers in the hunt for 'Africa's Major.'
Rasmus Hojgaard was second in the betting at the start of the day and he remains there, albeit with his odds cut to 10/3. He too has had his difficulties when leading and his failure to win the Open de France six weeks ago is a concern.
Where is the value?
Third round leaders of the Nedbank haven't fared well in recent years. None of the last three leaders (2017-2019) have lifted the trophy. It should also be noted that Justin Harding had a significant final round collapse last year when leading the South African Open at this course. We are of the opinion that the leaders can be taken on in the final round.
Round 4 Bet
- 3pts WIN ONLY Branden Grace 11/2 @ General
Christiaan Bezuidenhout made significant appeal but Branden Grace just edges selection. Grace comfortably leads the SG: Tee to Green stats this week, only a cold putter preventing him from leading going into the final round. He's no stranger to low final rounds, having closed with a 66 when he won here in 2017, shot a 65 to win LIV Golf Portland earlier this year and also closed with a 66 to win his last PGA Tour title, the 2021 Puerto Rico Open. Having once ranked 10th in the world, his defection to LIV Golf has seen his world ranking slide to 180th. He'll be well aware a win tomorrow would give him a significant boost up the rankings and he's the man we like to take the title.
11th November 2022, 8:25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fox (thru 3) |
-8 |
| Donald (thru 3) |
-8 |
| Fisher (thru 11) |
-6 |
| Hojgaard (thru 6) |
-6 |
| Migliozzi (thru 3) |
-6 |
| Green (thru 11) |
-5 |
| Bland (thru 4) |
-5 |
Round 2 Summary
Thunder and heavy rain forced play to be suspended only a few holes into the leader's second round.
Round 2 & 3 Weather
Possible thunderstorms and rain.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ryan Fox remains favourite at a best price 11/4. With further weather interruptions likely over the next two days, backing the players at the top may prove to be a sound strategy. However, Fox has a tricky up and down on the 4th hole when he returns and we'd want to see him par that hole before looking to back him.
Rasmus Hojgaard is second in the betting at 13/2 after a fast start to his second round. He's not without appeal.
Where is the value?
Guido Migliozzi and Luke Donald make appeal given we may well see this event shortened to 54 holes if the poor weather continues.
Round 2 & 3 Bet
- 1pt Win Only Guido Migliozzi 12/1 @ Betfair/Skybet
Guido has been solid through the opening two rounds and has yet to drop a shot. Only two shots off the lead as things stand, he's a proven performer under pressure. Migliozzi recently won the French Open when coming from off the pace and he shouldn't be twice the price of Rasmus Hojgaard (who he defeated in Paris) at this stage of proceedings.
10th November 2022, 9:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fox |
-8 |
| Donald |
-7 |
| Migliozzi |
-5 |
| Bland |
-4 |
| Zanotti |
-4 |
| Lee |
-4 |
| Five players tied |
-3 |
Round 1 Summary
Level par through his opening eight holes, Ryan Fox found an extra gear and played his final ten holes in eight under par.
Round 1 Quotes
"I figure if you can get to double digits under par around here for the most part you’re going to be pretty close come Sunday. To be most of the way there after the first round is pretty nice. This is a hard golf course to keep your foot on the gas. It’s going to come back and bite you at some point." Ryan Fox
"A little bit unexpected to be honest, I wasn’t showing much form coming into this week. Feeling a bit better about my game." Luke Donald
Round 2 Weather
Possible thunderstorms. Wind 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ryan Fox is the understandable 12/5 favourite. The Kiwi was in red hot form on the back nine but was keen to emphasise the difficulties he has had with this course in the past in his post round interview. In three previous attempts he's failed to crack the top 50 at Sun City and even though he's a much improved player, we're in no rush to back him at the odds available.
Min Woo Lee and Tommy Fleetwood are 11/1 and 12/1 in the betting. Fleetwood battled admirably to an opening round of 70 after suffering from heat stroke in the pro-am. Whether he can improve throughout the week remains to be seen.
Where is the value?
Given the limited field size, we're focusing on some large prices with five each way places up for grabs.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Sebastian Soderberg 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Soderberg finds himself seven shots behind Ryan Fox but only three shots off the each way places. A proven fast finisher, he almost won the British Masters this year when coming from behind. His sole effort at Sun City resulted in a 30th place finish, but he came into this week on the back of a 15th place finish in Mallorca and he's expected to make progress up the leaderboard.
- 0.5pts Each Way Shaun Norris 250/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Ewen Ferguson made appeal given odds of 125/1 are available with Unibet/Bet Rivers. However, we have him in our staking plan already and his inconsistent opening round (six bogeys) was a slight worry. With doubts over Ferguson, we're looking to top up on another pre-event selection, Shaun Norris. A winner on the DP World Tour earlier this year, he won't be afraid of anyone in this field. Like Soderberg, he's only three shots off the each way places and he's a lively each way selection.
