Preview

Course Info

Designer: Remy Martin
Type of Course: Classical, tree lined
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Kikuyu, quite narrow
Rough: Kikuya
Greens: Bentgrass, 12.5 on Stimp, small, undulating
Water Hazards: On eight holes
Par 5's: 6th, 11th and 12th
Premium on: Tee to Green

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This event was not played in 2020 and made its European Tour debut in 2019.The course also hosted events on the Sunshine Tour in 2018 and 2019, and a Challenge Tour event between 2013 and 2016.

 

The course is at altitude which means players need to manage their distance control.

The field strength is significantly poorer than previous weeks. You can get every player at 20/1+ this week, which tells us it's a very open event.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather Forecast

Sunny all four days with temperatures creeping into the early 80's. Wind tends to get up in the afternoon here so slight preference to morning starters each day.
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Thursday
Sunny and strong breeze. Winds of 6-14mph,
Friday
Showers and moderate breeze. Winds of 5-14mph.
Saturday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Winds of 6-13mph.
Sunday
Sunny and moderate breeze. Winds of 5-13mph.

Trends

Winning score
Guido Migliozzi won in 2019 with -16. It should be noted the field strength wasn't great though. When the course hosted on other tours the winning score ranged froom -10 to -26. Expect it to be similar to Migliozzi's total of -16.

Winning Profile
Migliozzi used this event to make his breakthrough in 2019 and arrived ranked 576th in the world. The three players in 2nd were all highly rated though - Arnaus, Harding and De Jager.

Correlating Courses 
Visually, the course has an Italian Open sort of feel with the trees surrounding but not too tight to the fairways. 

Course form
In 2019, Migliozzi was making his debut, as were Bhullar and Samooja who finished 5th and 6th. However, Harding and De Jager in 2nd place had both recorded top 20's at this course on the Sunshine tour the previous year, and Langasque in 6th place also had finished 2nd here previously. It's early days but it looks like course form may be an advantage here eventually.

Recent form
Migliozzi had no form whatsoever prior to his win. Runner up Justin Harding had won the week previous in Qatar and the other three in the top 5 were all making cuts beforehand. On one years evidence, form is preferred but not essential.
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Nationality
2019 leaderboard was a mix of South Africans and Europeans.As the course was used on the Sunshine Tour in 2018 and 2019, we should expect the South Afrcians to go well again.

Stats Analysis

As the course has only been used on the European Tour in 2019, we will focus on the stats from that event.  From this evidence, we are looking for strong tee to green players. The top 7 all ranked 1st-12th tee to green last year.

Driving Distance
In 2019, none of the top 5 ranked inside the top 20 for distance. Not a key stat.

SG: Off The Tee
Migliozzi and Arnaus ranked 2nd and 8th. The three others in the top 5 ranked outside the top 20. Preferred but not essential.

SG: Approach
The top two ranked 4th and 8th last year and all of the top 5 were in the top 20.  Hitting the small greens is essential.

SG: Around The Green
Out of the top 5, only Harding ranked inside the top 10 for this stat. Not essential.

SG: Putting
Migliozzi, Harding and Arnaus all ranked outside the top 25 for putting. Tee to green game is preferred this week.

In Play

Tough Holes
Long par 4 3rd played the hardest in 2019. Holes 1-4 all ranked in the top 8 hardest so it's not an easy start. Holes 13-15 are all inside the top 6 toughest holes and the 18th is the 3rd hardest hole.
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Birdie Holes
The three par 5s (6th, 11th and 12th), played the easiest in 2019 and need to be taken advantage of. Par 4's 7th, 9th and 10th played next easiest, meaning the 6-12th is the scoring stretch.

Fast or Slow Start
In 2019, 8 of the top 10 were within 3 of the lead after round one. Harding, who finished 2nd, was 6 back though. A strong start looks preferable here.

Closing stretch
The par 3 16th and par 4 17th played slightly under par in 2019. The par 4 18th played the 3rd toughest hole. From the 13th hole onwards it's a difficult finish.

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Inplay

Kenya Open In-Play Blog

20 March 2021, 6pm

For the third day running, we’re assessing the event fairly blind with no TV coverage. There is good news though, it has been resolved now and they are preparing to broadcast the final round.

Bet365 shot tracker was also down for the early part of the morning and at that point our 12/1 in-play pick Scott Hend had become bookies' favourite before stalling has he played the par 5’s. He is not out of it, but has two shots to catch up on Justin Harding.

Pre-event 28/1 play Guido Migliozzi also looked like threatening, coming down to 9/1, but a sloppy final three holes in 2 over par may mean he has too much to do.

As expected from our preview, the players who play best tee to green have prospered and the front four all rank 1-4 in that category. For that reason, it is really hard to see past the leaders, although Calum Hill still has a sniff 3 shots back.

Funnily enough, Kurt Kitayama defeated Justin Harding for his first win in Mauritius in 2018 and that may play a part in the proceedings tomorrow. Harding has not played the final 6 holes well all week, playing them in a combined 3 over par. We were tempted by the 3/1 on Kitayama but he can be a poor putter at times which may just prove costly tomorrow.

Talking of poor putters, Johannes Veerman seemed to get over his putting woes yesterday and is a massive danger if he can back that up. There were a couple of occasions in Cyprus last year where he failed to do that though, so we’re happy to leave him out at 9/2.

There are scattered thunderstorms scheduled throughout the day so we’re not sure how that’s going to impact play. With this in mind, in addition to the lack of coverage so far, we will cheer Hend on for a shock victory.

Sunday's Bets

• No Bets