Preview
Course Info
Designer: Renovated by Spogard and Van der Vaart in 2012
Type of Course: Exposed, Undulating
Used Since: 2014.
Fairways: Average Width
Rough: Penal
Greens: Bentgrass, usually run around 10.6 on stimp
Par 5's: 5th, 8th, and 11th
Premium on: Putting and playing in cooler conditions
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Although this course has been used since 2014 please note the event wasn't played here in 2018 and event was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
In 2019 and 2021, the event was moved from August to May and followed the PGA Championship. It reverts back to a later date in the calendar this year.
Himmerland hosted the Made in Denmark Challenge on the Challenge Tour in 2018.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Wind 5-10mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Wind 5-10mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Wind 8-12mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Wind 15-20mph.
Trends
Winning score
In the six times Himerland has hosted the winning score has ranged from -9 to -21. Last year's event saw the lowest ever winning score, Bernd Wiesberger winning with a score of -21.
Winning Profile
Wiesberger was 65th in the world rankings prior to his win last year. In 2019 he was 378th and his win was the first of three wins that season. in 2017, Julian Suri was 208th and had already won a Challenge Tour event that season. The three champions before them, Thomas Pieters, David Horsey and Marc Warren were 56th, 263rd and 89th. With the exception of Julian Suri, every player had won before on the European Tour.
Correlating Courses
We can look to form in Austria or the UK as it should suit players who enjoy cooler conditions. The Albatross Golf Course in Czech Republic may be worth some digging too - Pieters has an excellent record there and Julian Suri has form in Czech Republic also.
Course form
Wiesberger successfully defended his title last year but prior to that course form hasn't been that important. Wiesberger won on his debut in 2019, as did Julian Suri in 2017. Pieters had a previous 35th before his win and Horsey had a previous 39th. Preferred but not essential.
Recent form
Wiesberger arrived last year in very average form, his three previous starts being MC-34-40. The year before he had form figures of 70-14-23. Winner in 2017, Julian Suri, hadn't played in weeks but was 16th on his last start. Pieters arrived hot after a 2nd and 4th.
Nationality
No nationality has dominated here in recent years.
Stats Analysis
The course had some changes for the 2019 edition so we will assess the stats for the top three in 2019 and top two in 2021.
Driving Distance
Last year the top two ranked 71-22. In 2019 the top three ranked 87-91-19. Not a key stat this week.
Driving Accuracy
Last year the top two ranked 46-141. In 2019 the top three ranked 44-27-12. Driving Accuracy helps but isn't essential.
SG: Off the Tee
Last year the top two ranked 12-36. In 2019 the top three ranked 99-12-19. Prefer a strong driver but not essential.
SG: Approach
Last year the top two ranked 3-16. In 2019 the top three ranked 3-15-54. Strong iron play has been the key to success at Himmerland
SG: Around the greens
Last year the top two ranked 29-80. In 2019 the top three ranked 44-98-61.
SG: Putting
Last year the top two ranked 28-6. In 2019 the top three ranked 40-11-8. Strong putting is a big bonus at Himmerland.
In Play
Tough Holes
In 2021, the 9th played as the hardest hole, the 13th and 18th ranked as the hardest holes the previous two editions.
Birdie Holes
The 262 yard Par 4 14th was the easiest hole in 2019, averaging 3.42. Par 5's 5th and 8th played next easiest. Note the Par 5 11th actually played over par in 2019 (averaging 5.12) and averaged 5.00 exactly last year.
Fast or Slow Start
Bernd Wiesberger led from start to finish last year. Thomas Pieters also led after round one in 2016. Every course winner in the last five years has been inside the top 20 after round one. We don't want to look too far down the leaderboard after day one.
The last four course winners have all been inside the top eight after round two and each of those winners came from the final group in round four.
Closing stretch
16th is a short par 3 followed by a shortish par 4 on 17. See above on 'tough holes' for the 18th.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Ross Fisher 66/1
Finished 8th here last year and game has been solid for a few weeks now. However, doesn't win often and others preferred.
Sebastian Soderberg 80/1
Stats have been impressive in different areas the past few weeks. Finished with a low round last week, could this be the week all the pieces of the puzzle fit together?
Tapio Pulkannen 80/1
Finished 3rd last time out at the Czech Masters and has a sound course record with a couple of top 15 finishes. Fears the final hole from the Czech Masters may cause him a hangover.
In-play
Made in Himmerland In-Play Blog
3 September 2022, 9.40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| McGowan |
-17 |
| Southgate |
-17 |
| Laporta |
-17 |
| O Wilson |
-17 |
| Jordan |
-16 |
| Lewis |
-15 |
| Ferguson |
-15 |
| Walters |
-15 |
| Three players tied |
-13 |
Round 3 Summary
Ross McGowan and Oliver Wilson both stumbled coming in and we now have a four way tie for the lead with one round to go.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It’s a bunched leaderboard, four tied for the lead, anybody can win it really. Looks like the wind is going to pick up again tomorrow throughout the day so somebody who is on 11 or 12 under with a low round has a chance." Ross McGowan
"It feels good, absolutely amazing. After all of the hard work I’m feeling good to be up there and to have a good chance tomorrow." Francesco Laporta
"So early in the round, it (holing out for eagle on 1) was just such a surprise and it's like, 'Oh, that's a nice start. And it settled me really early, to be honest, and just got back to how I've played the last two days." Matthew Southgate
Round 4 Weather
Mostly cloudy. Wind 12-18mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Matthew Southgate is 4/1 favourite but like Richard Mansell yesterday, the price is too short in our opinion. Southgate has yet to win on Tour and although he's a three time runner up on Tour, he's yet to really convince when in contention. He lacks recent contention experience, having last contended for a tournament in June last year at the Porsche European Open.
Francesco Laporta is second favourite at 9/2 and arguably should be ahead of Southgate in the betting. The Italian won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and has gained experience of being in contention on the DP World Tour. He's a two time runner up on this Tour and a win would be fully deserved given how well he's played tee to green this week. Only Fabrizio Zanotti ranks higher in the SG: Tee to Green rankings.
We advised Laporta to subscribers at 200/1 at the start of the week and he's the man we'd most like to see lift the trophy.
Oliver Wilson is 3rd in the betting at 50/1. The Englishman was advised in yesterday's blog at 50/1 and he's not without his merits. However, it was a nervy finish to round three and that's a concern. Like Southgate, he lacks recent contention experience and he'll need to overcome today's lacklustre finish to have any chance tomorrow.
Where is the value?
Ross McGwan indicated in his post round interview that those at 11 or 12 under par still have a chance but we see the winner coming from those in the group at 15 under par or better. The last four course winners have been first or second going into the final round and we don't see any reason to look too far down the leaderboard.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Win Only Ewen Ferguson 10/1 @ Bet365
If you have read the blogs this week you will know we have been keen on Ferguson's chances this week and we want him onside going into the final round. The Scot is a two time winner already this season, with plenty of contention experience. The same can't be said of the others on the leaderboard and the fact he's likely to feel the nerves less than the others is a significant consideration. Add in the fact he ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green through the opening three rounds and he's a significant threat. We have Francesco Laporta (200/1), Oliver Wilson (50/1) and Tom Lewis (125/1) on our side at big odds, it's time to add a shorter price going into the final round.
2 September 2022, 7.40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| McGowan |
-15 |
| Mansell |
-14 |
| Laporta |
-14 |
| Lewis |
-12 |
| Kjeldsen |
-12 |
| Helligkilde |
-12 |
| Ferguson |
-12 |
| Four players tied |
-11 |
Round 2 Summary
Ross McGowan birdied two of his last three holes to retain a one stroke lead going into the weekend.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"“For some reason I've been playing well this week and it was nice to gather my thoughts again on 16 and hit one in close and played the last two holes really nicely." Ross McGowan
"I played dreadful yesterday. I've checked out my hotel, booked a flight, bags are in the car. Gone and shot a nine under par this morning. Golf's a stupid game." James Morrison
Round 3 Weather
Morning sunshine then becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Wind 12-18mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Richard Mansell is 11/4 favourite but it's a remarkably short price in our eyes given recent failings in contention. That said, Mansell is bogey free so far this week and ranks 5th SG: Tee to Green. If he has learned from the past few weeks this could well be the week he breaks through. We're not prepared to back him though.
Francesco Laporta is 7/1 2nd favourite. We put up the Italian at 200/1 pre-event and it's encouraging to see him continue where he left off last week. Including Sunday's round at the Omega European Masters, he's now shot 64 in three consecutive rounds. He ranks 2nd SG: Tee to Green so far this week and he'll go close should he continue playing as he has done.
Ross McGowan and Marcus Helligkilde are both priced up at 9/1. McGowan has appeared surprised at his upturn in play this week but that was also the case when he won the Italian Open in October 2020. That win came relatively out of the blue and the fact he ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green so far can't be ignored.
We mentioned in yesterday's blog just how much we like Marcus Helligkilde and he too can't be dismissed. Interestingly, he's considerably worse tee to green (31st SG: Tee to Green) than the others at the front of the betting but his putter has been the most important club in the bag.
Where is the value?
The last four course winners have been inside the top eight at this stage so those up with the leaders are preferred. However, we'll see the wind test players over the weekend more than it has to date so those further back may have a chance to make up some ground.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Oliver Wilson 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
We strongly considered Ewen Ferguson once again at 12/1 given he leads the SG: Tee to Green stats and has only dropped one shot (a three putt from 27ft). However, with the wind set to increase over the weekend we are still keen to take some of the bigger prices. The best of which appears to be Oliver Wilson. The Englishman is four shots off the lead at present but the 50/1 is too big in our opinion. Wilson was 4th here in 2019 and has yet to miss a cut at Himmerland. That's an impressive achievement for a player who has missed plenty of cuts in his career. Wilson hasn't won since 2014 but let's not forget, he held off Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood to win that Alfred Dunhill Links. He can outplay his odds.
1 September 2022, 8.10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| McGowan |
-9 |
| Ferguson |
-8 |
| Southgate |
-8 |
| Walters |
-8 |
| R Hojgaard |
-8 |
| Helligkilde |
-8 |
| Six Players Tied |
-7 |
Round 1 Summary
Ross McGowan finished eagle-birdie to take a one stroke lead at the top of the leaderboard. There are 31 players between five under par and eight under par.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"“I felt like it’s been getting better the last few weeks but it’s nice to finally put a round together and hopefully I can keep it going for the next three days." Ross McGowan
"It was the first time I’d played with Thomas and obviously I’ve played with Bob since I was, well, in nappies, so it was a good, fun group.....We’ve got a good run of tournaments coming up now so I’m looking forward to this stretch and this week is fantastic. I just played really good. Didn’t do anything wrong and just enjoyed my golf." Ewen Ferguson
Round 2 Weather
Partly sunny with wind not expected to exceed 12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rasmus Hojgaard has been installed as the bookies favourite at a best price 8/1 and it's not unreasonable. The home favourite has three DP World Tour wins to his name and has posted top 10s in two PGA Tour events this season. That said, there were a few wayward drives in round one and we'll see how round two pans out.
Marcus Helligkilde and Richard Mansell are tucked in behind at 10/1 and 11/1 respectively. Of the two, Helligkilde would be preferred. A three time winner on the Challenge Tour, he looks a winner in waiting on the DP World Tour. There's no doubting Mansell's talent but he's looked questionable in contention this season and he's not a player we'd want to back at such short odds at this time.
Where is the value?
As we noted in the Preview, this hasn't been an event to come from off the pace and we aren't looking any lower than the players at five under par. We were very close to selecting Ewen Ferguson in the outright market, odds of 12/1 seem somewhat disrespectful given he's a two time winner this season. He shouldn't be behind Mansell (and arguably even Helligkilde) in the betting.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Jeff Winther 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Winther fired an opening 66 to sit four shots off the pace. A bogey at the last prevented him from being a shot better off but that's kept his price at an interesting level. The Dane has a couple of top 20 finishes at Himmerland in previous years and given his breakthrough win on Tour last year, he's capable of better this week.
- 0.5pts Each Way Tom Lewis 125/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Lewis has had a mixed few years but a 13th place finish at the Czech Masters two weeks ago was an encouraging step forward. He's yet to miss a cut at Himmerland, which is impressive for a player who misses plenty of cuts. In that time, he's posted several top 20 finishes and like the Czech Masters, it's an event he's comfortable at. He's got plenty of talent and although it's a less confident selection than Winther, the price justifies the risk.
- 1pt Each Way Nicolai Von Dellingshausen TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 33/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)
- 0.75pts Each Way Rikard Karlberg TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 40/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-5)
With a bunched leaderboard, we're happy to take two generous prices on players who are on seven under par and only two shots behind the leader. Von Dellingshausen showed at last year's Tenerife Open that he could follow up a low opening round with a low 2nd round. A bogey free round in round 1 was impressive and he hit plenty of greens, ranking 13th for Greens in Regulation. He's a streaky player and 33/1 is a price worth taking. A smaller play on Karlberg is also advised given he too can run hot. He has a couple of top 15 finishes in this event and given he only missed two greens in round one, is worth a play too.
