Preview

Course Info

Type of Course - Parkland, Tree lined.
Course Designer - Sid Brews, course re-designed in 1990 by Mark Muller and most recently by Sean Quinn.
Fairways - Average to wide.
Rough - Kikuya rough.
Water Hazards - Features throughout. In-play on holes 1,2,7,8,9,11,16,17.
Par 5's - 4th, 12th, 14th
Hosted Since - 2018
Premium on - Short game

Weather Forecast

Summary

Warm temperatures ranging from 15 degrees first thing to peaks of 31 degrees. Saturday looking much cooler. Slight advantage to morning starters on Thursday - winds of 6mph before rising to 10mph in the afternoon. 

Thurs - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind 6-10mph.
Fri - Light rain showers and gentle breeze. Wind 8-10mph.
Sat - Light rain and a gentle breeze. Wind 8-9mph.
Sun - Light rain showers and gentle breeze.  Wind 8-10mph.

 

 

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This is the first of three co-sanctioned events in South Africa.

 

Although Randpark GC has hosted the last three years, the Firethorn Course being used this week only hosted 3 of the 4 rounds. As a result, there may be some hidden course form available if a player played well at that course but not the other one used in the first two rounds. 

 

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.  

Trends

Winning score

Scores of -23, -18 and -21 have won the last three years but this included the easier Bushwillow course for one round. We can expect it to be between 15-20 under par this year on Firethorn only. 

Course form

In the last edition, Grace won after finishing 7th in 2019 and Oosthuizen was 2nd after winning in 2019. Previous winners were both course debutants (everyone was in 2018). Previous high finish regarded as a bonus. 

Incoming form

The last 3 winners all had a top 10 finish in their last two starts. Look for a player coming in hot. 

Nationality

Two South Africans and an Indian winner so far. 8 of the top 12 last year were South Africans, 9 of the top 14 the previous years. Preference to players who play well in hot conditions. 

Stats Analysis

Summary

Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past two tournaments.  It shows strong drivers prevail with a nice touch around the greens. 

SG: Off The Tee

Oosthuizen ranked 3rd off the tee in 2018, 2nd place Langasque was 29th. In 2020, Grace was 32nd and runner up Oosthuizen was 13th. 

SG: Approach

Oosthuizen was as low as 92nd SG: Approach the green in 2018 - however, ranked 12th for GIR.  Langasque was 62nd. In 2020, Grace was 14th and Oosthuizen 12th. 

SG: Around The Greens

Oosthuizen ranked 25th around the greens in 2018, Langasque was 3rd. In 2020, Grace ranked 16th and Oosthuizen (was 3rd for scrambling though).

SG: Putting

Oosthuizen ranked 5th on the greens in 2018, Langasque was 3rd. In 2020, Grace was 7th and Oosthuizen 34th. 

In Play

Tough Holes

Long par 4 2nd was the hardest hole in the last edition. The 18th was 2nd hardest. The 8th, 10th,17th and the 18th are other notable difficult holes.

Birdie Holes

The three par 5s (4th, 12th, 14th) play well under par and were the easiest holes on the course in 2019.  Shortish par 4's 6th and 9th also provide chances.

Fast or Slow Start

Last year none of the top 14 shot worse than 67 in round one. However, we have to remember this involved a course rotation so we have to take this with a pinch of salt. Grace and 2nd place Oosthuizen both sat 3 back at halfway. Grace started the final round 3 off Louis. 

In 2019, Oosthuizen opened with a 62 and won by 6 but he was one back at halfway before pulling clear. Catch up is possible. 

Six To Watch

​Johannes Veerman - 28/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (7 places)
The American is one of the fastest improving players on tour and would already have been a winner had the Cyprus Showdown been played in a conventional format. He played all four rounds in -22. Two top 10's in the summer in Portugal and Spain confirm his liking for playing in warmer conditions.

As an added bonus, he finished 13th here in January. Although that was mainly due to a 62 at Bushwillow, he played his final round at Firethorn in 68. He ranked 3rd for SG: Putting to show he likes the surfaces in SA, and if we combine that with season stats of 11th for GIR and 48th SG: Off the tee, it could be the winning formula.

Marcus Armitage - 28/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
Marcus arrives with the classic combination of recent form (14-12-10-7) and course form (5th and 3rd), and so has been priced up accordingly by the bookmakers. There is no getting away from two facts though: firstly, he is playing the most consistent golf of his career, and, secondly, he loves Firethorn course at Randpark Golf Club.

Last year he played Firethorn in -17 and Bushwillows in +1. The extra round at Firethorn this time could make all the difference. He ranked 9th for SG: Tee to green, 9th scrambling and 10th putts per GIR and was only beaten by two high class players in Grace and Oosthuizen. In short, take the 28's with gritted teeth for this loveable rogue!

Louis De Jager - 40/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (7 places)
Regular readers may have predicted Louis would make the six this week as we have been banging on about him for weeks now! Form figures of 9-34-22-17-4 show exactly how consistent his game is and a return to his native land might just inspire him to a win. Missed the cut here last year but on closer inspection played Firethorn in -3 so it was his Bushwillows round which cost him. Four rounds at the tougher course may well play to his strengths judging by recent tee to green stats.

Jayden Shaper - 90/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
We became aware of the youngster in the SA Open in January when he burst onto the scene with a 6th place including three under par rounds at Firethorn. Since lockdown he has played some consistent golf on the Sunshine Tour with form figures of 5-MC-5-7-29-12-6-15. Has a sponsor's invite and undoubtedly has the talent to compete at this level. Speaking after his practice round yesterday he said: “This is the time to peak. These next three weeks (the Joburg Open, Alfred Dunhill Championship and South African Open) are really important." Everything is in place for Jayden to have a big week and take his next steps towards the European Tour. ​

Jacques Blaauw - 100/1 @ Betfred (6 places)
On offer here we have a South African who has form figures on the Sunshine Tour of 5-6-2-4 which is simply a remarkable run. Yes, this is a step up but he finished 15th here last year on the back of average form, including rounds of 67 and 69 at Firethorn. He also boasts finishes of 7th at the 2015 and 2016 Joburg Open, as well as a 2nd at the 2015 Tshwane Open and 4th at 2018 SA Open. It would be asking a lot for him to win, but a place is certainly not out of the question.

Jonathan Caldwell - 125/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
One of the trends identified this week was to pick a player with a strong recent finish and Jonathan has three to show with figures of 16-MC-5-7. The bookmakers still don't seem fully convinced but he is showing rapid improvement. Last year he finished 57th here but ranked 16th for SG: Putting and 11th for SG: Around the greens, both of which are his strength in general and seem significant at Firethorn. 14th place at Leopard's Creek in 2019 shows he can play in South Africa.

 

 

In-play

In-Play Blog

21 November 2020 10:30pm

-16 Nienaber
-15 Hansen
-11 Norris
-11 Stone
-11 Bland
-11 Blaauw

Wilco Nienaber takes a one shot lead into the final round, hoping to secure his first European Tour title.  The bookies have the long hitting South African as the even money favourite and his role as favourite is understandable given his impressive performance in round three. A couple of early bogeys saw him over par through five holes but an impressive back nine of 33 was enough to give him the lead going into Sunday.

Wilco has yet to win as a professional and it's hard to imagine he won't be feeling some nerves early on tomorrow.  His length off the tee gives him an enormous advantage and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's birdied the par 5 5th and 14th holes every day this week.  He'll expect to pick up another couple of shots over those holes and an under par round may well rule out the chasing pack.  With all that said, even with his enormous potential, he's not a bet we'd want to place given his lack of experience under this type of pressure.

Wilco's nearest challenger, JB Hansen, is also seeking a first win on the European Tour and he too may feel the pressure.  He won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2018 but hasn't been able to convert on the European Tour despite having a couple of opportunities.  Last seen in contention at the BMW PGA (where he was poor), this is a significant step down in terms of quality and it may well be that experience at Wentworth may have done him the world of good. However, at 7/4 he's not a price we would want to take either.

We still carry hopes for Jacques Blaauw, one of our Six to Watch at 100/1.  As we alluded to yesterday, he does tend to struggle with front running and perhaps coming from off the pace will suit him better.  A place certainly isn't out of the question.

​We have one final in-play bet.  We are expecting to see at least one of the players at -11 make a move and with the leaders looking susceptible to a slip up, it is prudent to make a play.

1.5pts Each Way Brandon Stone (1/4 1,2) - 14/1 @SpreadEx

Brandon fired a 7 under par round of 64 on day three to move himself right into contention.  He's driving the ball superbly and striking his irons nicely too. If he putts well in the final round he's more than capable of catching the leaders who may wilt under some pressure.  He's a three time European Tour winner and that experience could well pay off against others who have struggled to win at this level or have yet to feel the pressure.  Brandon closed strongly when winning his last European Tour title in 2018 at the Scottish Open and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so again.

 

20 November 2020 7:15pm

-13 Blaauw
-12 Nienaber
-10 Cockerill
-10 Hansen (through 16)
-9 Norris (through 15)

We started the day hoping Johannes Veerman would take advantage of his early start, but it was 100/1 six to watch selection Jacques Blaauw who took charge with a tremendous 63. He now sits one shot ahead of young Nienaber, which leaves an interesting dual between experience and young talent. 

Although excellent today and in the form of his life with four top 10 finishes in four starts, it would not be a surprise if Blaauw slows up tomorrow and lets a bunch of players back in. It is notoriously hard to back up a low round, and although he is a four time winner in Africa he hasn't done so since 2016. His CV shows quite a lot of runner-up places and there are doubts whether he will be able to get the job done from here with so much at stake. 

There is no doubting the talent of Wilco, and he will give himself plenty of opportunities over the weekend with his power, but his short game remains a weakness and he will have to improve around the greens to get over the line. He is yet to win as a professional and he may need one or two more times in the mix before he can finish the job. 

Hansen and Norris can't be discounted but they have a few tricky holes to navigate first. Cockerill doesn't have much experience challenging on the European Tour, so will do well to keep his place.

Tomorrow looks to be wet as well as windy so it could be challenging day for the leaders. We have identified a couple of dangers from the pack who can make a move should they falter.

1pt Each Way Julian Suri (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 33/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way Zander Lombard (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 50/1 @ Bet365

Julian sits 5 shots back. Tough conditions over the weekend will demand a lot of scrambling and he ranks 4th for SG: Around the green so far which bodes well. Ranks 13th tee to green and 23rd putts per GIR, so all aspects of his game are in great shape. It's amazing that the American now ranks 410th in the world when he was in the top 70 two years ago, but he is a much better player than his current ranking and has been hinting that he is close to a comeback. 

Zander is an all or nothing type player and you never know whether you will get a 65 or 75, but he is worth risking given the price and company on the leaderboard. Like Suri, he is also high on the scrambling stats this week (7th) and 18th tee to green, striking his irons particularly nice. He seems to enjoy his golf back home in SA, finishing 7th and 8th at Alfred Dunhill and Nedbank at the tail end of 2019. He also has a 2nd at the 2016 Joburg Open and 3rd at the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Championship. Snap up the 50 while it's still there. 

 

19 November 2020

-8 Norris
-8 Nienaber
-7 Veerman
-7 Cockerill
-6 Five players tied.

South African bomber Wilco Nienaber and compatriot Shaun Norris took advantage of the slightly easier conditions in the morning, with Veerman and Cockerill doing well to get within touching distance in the the afternoon breeze.

Pre-tournament favourite Bezuidenhout got himself to -5 early on but went backwards on the back 9 and now sits 5 back. Our six to watch are in great shape with everyone -2 or better, including 3rd placed Veerman who was put up at 28/1.

We saw how much the greens firmed up in the afternoon and with consistent winds of 9-12mph forecast tomorrow, we would favour morning starters who can get round before the greens harden. 

1pt Each Way Jayden Schaper (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Joel Sjoholm(1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 250/1 @ Skybet

Jayden was one of our six to watch at 90/1 but for anyone who is not yet on, 50's still represents value. The highly rated youngster is 4 shots back with an early start, and possesses much more talent than most of the traffic he needs to pass to get to the leaders. As highlighted previously, likes the course, and 7 birdies shows his potential for the next 3 days if he can limit his mistakes. 

The Swede is 6 back after an opening 69. With a nice early tee time tomorrow, Joel can make his move though the field. We know he has good memories of South Africa after his 2nd place at Leopard's Creek last year and he came from way off the pace that week. After 36 holes he was 9 behind eventual winner Pablo Larrazabal and only lost out by 1 shot. He has been playing consistent golf of late with finishes of 31-58-22 and a return to SA may just be the perfect boost he needs.