Preview

2023 Italian Open Tips

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Event Info

Starts: 4th May 2023
Course: Marco Simone Golf Club, Italy
Par: 71
Length: 7,255 yards
2022 Champion: Robert MacIntyre

Course Info

Designer: European Golf Design
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Average
Greens: Large
Water Hazards: On 10 holes
Premium on: Driving

Significant Info

This is the third time this course has been used for the Italian Open since it underwent a re-design ahead of the Ryder Cup to be played later this year.

Be aware that the two previous Italian Opens held at Marco Simone were played in September with conditions firmer than they are likely to be this week.

European Golf Design, the firm tasked with the re-design, were also responsible for the 2010 course at Celtic Manor, Green Eagle Golf (Nord) and Le Golf National.

The course did host the Italian Open in 1994 but we are placing little emphasis on that given the changes.

Weather

Thursday
Sunny. Wind to peak at 7mph.

Friday
Sunny. Wind to peak at 9mph.

Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 8mph.

Sunday
Cloudy with a max wind of 8mph.

Stats

With only stats to for the last two years to draw upon, we will analyse the stats of the top four in 2021 and 2022.

SG: Off The Tee
The top four in 2021 ranked 1-16-81-44. The top four in 2022 ranked 28-40-25-2. Strong drivers of the golf ball are preferred this week.

Driving Accuracy
The top four in 2021 ranked 100-41-73-62. The top four in 2022 ranked 90-93-8-126. Driving accuracy isn't essential this week.

Driving Distance
The top four in 2021 ranked 40-9-26-90. The top four in 2022 ranked 100-12-76-3. Distance over accuracy this week.

SG: Approach
The top four in 2021 ranked 21-7-70-29. The top four in 2022 ranked 11-12-30-24. You don't have to be razor sharp with the irons to win this week but it will certainly help.

SG: Around The Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 50-52-26-8. The top four in 2022 ranked 33-1-36-8.

SG: Tee to Green
The top four in 2021 ranked 1-4-49-6. The top four in 2022 ranked 6-3-9-2. You can putt your way to a big finish, as Tommy Fleetwood did in 2021 but ingeneral, a strong tee tee to green game is essential this week.

SG: Putting
The top four in 2021 ranked 51-42-2-23. The top four in 2022 ranked 13-38-5-77.

In-Play

Tough Holes
The long par 4s, 14th and 8th, played as the hardest holes in 2021. Be aware if betting in-play that holes 14, 15 and 17 ranked amongst the four hardest holes in 2021.

Birdie Holes
The three par 5s and the short par 4 11th hole played as the four easiest holes in 2021.

In-Play
Last year's winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, was 7th after the opening round.

Marco Simone GC Quotes

"There's definitely some trickiness to it, a few of the greens are very very undulated and they are quick. If you can't put the ball in the right spot you are really behind the eight ball." Henrik Stenson, 2021.

"I was shocked yesterday at how good the scoring was. I'd only really ever played it in wind and I felt it was a tough test every time." Tommy Fleetwood, 2021.

"It (driving distance) is definitely the biggest strength. There are a lot of bunkers 280-285 meters out and I can carry most of them so I can have short irons for 2nd shots. On 16 I can hit a 3 wood onto the green and it's definitely an advantage." Nicolai Hojgaard, 2021.

"Well, it's quite a big golf course. There are some long holes out there. You know, whether it's similar to, I mean, I heard a few players thought it was somewhat similar to a Celtic Manor. Quite a few drivers off the tee but beautifully presented. When that fescue grass slows up, the different colourations between the fairways and the rough. I think it has sort of a stadium feel a little bit like Paris, a little bit like Celtic Manor where you can create some great vistas for the fans." Luke Donald, 2022

"I just heard that Luke Donald compared it to Celtic Manor. I think there are some similarities." Francesco Molinari, 2022.

"Yeah, similar to Celtic Manor and similar to Gleneagles, a little, too, just warmer, better weather here." Rory McIlroy,2022.

"I played last year, The Italian Open, and the course is pretty challenging. This year, it's more like wet than the last year, and the green are a little bit slower. But I think it's a good challenge to play on this course because the greens are so slopey and big, so it's very -- the key I think is to like miss the shot not in the wrong part of the green because the green are not easy." Filippo Celli, 2022.

"I feel like this week looking at it is you've got to drive the ball well I feel like this week. You give yourself a chance from the fairways. As soon as you're in the rough, you get all sorts of lies, flyers. I think looking at it, if you drive the ball well, give yourself plenty of chances on the greens, you're in with a good shot." Matt Fitzpatrick, 2022.

"Keep the ball in play in the fairway is huge. Because the holes are not short, even in the wind, a few holes we played in the wind, it's the first time I've ever hit driver, 5-wood into a par 4. It's never happened. It was a bit funny. My caddie was laughing. It was tough out there. You kind of have to plot your way around, and the thing you is can't hit 3-wood or 5-wood, you've still got to hit driver. You've got to drive it well." Gavin Green

"You know with that amount of wind there's going to be a real premium on hitting the fairways because you cannot reach a lot of the par 4s if you're in the rough." Scott Jamieson

Previous Italian Open tips

You can access our historical Italian Open tips using the links below:

2022

2021

2023 Italian Open Tips

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In-play

2023 Italian Open In-Play Blog

6 May 2023, 6:20pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Guerrier	-12
Langasque	-11
Meronk	-11
Four players tied	-8

2023 Italian Open Round 3 Summary

Our 45/1 in-play tip Julien Guerrier has taken command of the lead but he has Adrian Meronk and Romain Langasque breathing down his neck. The later shot 62 which was the low round of the week and a course record.

Notable Round 3 Italian Open Quotes

"I did not expect nine under, I didn't expect to shoot a very low score on this course because it's quite a tough course." Romain Langasque

2023 Italian Open Round 4 Weather

Mostly sunny and warm. Wind 4-8mph.

Back or Lay The Favourite?

We were keen to take on Pavon yesterday but we would be far more hesitant taking on the current favourite, Adrian Meronk. The Pole's career is on an upwards trajectory, with some strong performances on the PGA Tour and should be more comfortable than Guerrier at the front of the market. Romain Langasque hasn't impressed in contention recently either and it is always hard to back up a low round, as Adrian Otaegui proved today. If backing an outsider tomorrow, keep Meronk onside if you can.

In-Play Italian Open Bets We Considered

We strongly considered Meronk but odds of 7/4 are more fair than value. This is far from a three horse race and those all the way back to 6 under par will fancy their chances with a good round. Marcel Siem was the last to be left off the shortlist, while Yannik Paul was considered at 45/1, there are two others we are going to make small investment in.

Round 4 Bets

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+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

5 May 2023, 8:50pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Pavon	-9
Otaegui	-7
Guerrier	-7
Meronk	-6
Three players tied	-5

2023 Italian Open Round 2 Summary

Matthieu Pavon held onto his two shot lead in what was a tougher day for most of the field. Adrian Otaegui mad e the best move with a 67 whilst Adrian Meronk and Victor Perez kept themselves in the hunt with a pair of 68's.

Notable Round 2 Italian Open Quotes

"I was a bit tired in the end also after a poor night yesterday, so to finish my round under par today I am really happy." Matthieu Pavon

2023 Italian Open Round 3 Weather

Mostly sunny and warm. Wind 10-15mph.

Back or Lay The Favourite?

Pavon remains favourite and has shortened to 10/3. It' still not a price we are willing to entertain and fell he must be taken on with such a strong chasing pack. Otaegui and Meronk are both established winners on tour, as are Alexander Bjork and Victor Perez four back. Pavon has to be taken on this weekend.

In-Play Italian Open Bets We Considered

The outright market looks a tough one to call, as hinted above. We may be best waiting for things to become a bit clearer after round three before placing any further bets.

We are also waiting for further prices on the 2-ball markets.

Round 3 Bets

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+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

4 May 2023, 7:20pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Pavon	-8
Kieffer	-6
Guerrier	-5
Wu	-5
Four players tied	-4

2023 Italian Open Round 1 Summary

Matthieu Pavon had an extraordinary day on the greens, one putting his first nine holes to race into the lead. He takes a two shot lead over Max Kieffer.

Notable Round 1 Italian Open Quotes

"The putting was amazing also. I dropped a lot of putts. I think I probably made nine putts on my front nine, which is quite funny. Everything was just excellent today." Matthieu Pavon

2023 Italian Open Round 2 Weather

Patchy morning fog then becoming mostly sunny and warm. Wind 8-12mph.

Back or Lay The Favourite?

Pavon is 4/1 favourite with a two shot lead but he is player we are willing to take on. He is yet to win on tour and has let slip some glorious chances and there were signs towards the end of the round with a couple of slip ups on the greens that he won't be comfortable leading all week.

In-Play Italian Open Bets We Considered

Max Kieffer is his closest rival and a similarly sloppy finish means his price is out to 14/1 and that is a tempting one. Kieffer impressed when winning the Czech Open last year and in our minds the gap between him and the leader should not be so big.

Jorge Campillo is also on the shortlist at 14/1, The Spaniard finished with a 65 in Korea last week proclaiming it was one the best ball striking rounds of his career but we felt his price was a touch short pre-event and it's a tad short this evening too.

Further down the odds, Kalle Samooja makes some appeal at 66's but there is a price we prefer that we will be tipping to our subscribers this evening.

Round 2 Bets

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View Archived Events

Italian Open 2023

Preview

2023 Italian Open Tips

Event Info

Course Info

Weather

Stats

In-Play

Marco Simone GC Quotes

Previous Italian Open tips

2023 Italian Open Tips