Preview
Course Info
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Type of Course: Parkland, Tree Lined.
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Wide
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: In-play on half of the holes.
Par 5's: 5th, 8th, 10th and 17th
Premium on: Birdies/Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The course also hosted the 2002 and 2004 WGC American Express Championships won by Tiger Woods and Ernie Els.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Looks set to be dry Thursday and Friday with some light rain arriving for the weekend. Approx. 14-22 degrees celsius with gentle winds.
Thursday
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 11mph in the morning but easing off through the day.
Friday
Sunny intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 15mph in afternoon
Saturday
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 10mph
Sunday
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 11mph
Trends
Winning score
Lucas herbert won with a score of -19 last year. The WGC American Express Championships were played here in 2002 and 2004 with winning scores of -25 and -18. We should expect a figure near the 20's to be winning.
Winning Profile
Lucas Herbert won before going on to win on the PGA Tour. Tiger Woods and Ernie Els won the two WGC's played here and Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer and Sam Torrance won the three Irish Opens here. The top players have prevailed.
Correlating Courses
None of note. The Renaissance Club which hosts the Scottish Open does have some corresponding results but the courses are different tests.
Course form
Herbert, like everyone else, was playing the course for the first time last year. Els finished 23rd in 2002 before his win in 2004. Woods was playing his debut like most others in 2002.
Recent form
Herbert had posted a couple of top 20 finishes prior to his win. Els was in terrific form heading into the WGC here in 2004, as was Woods. Both had consecutive top 10's. Recent form appears to be a big bonus.
Nationality
No obvious nationality trends.
Stats Analysis
We will assess the stats of last year's winner along with the two winners of the WGC played here in 2002 and 2004 - Tiger Woods and Ernie Els.
SG: Off The Tee
Of the top three last year, two of them were inside the top 18 for SG: Off The Tee.
Driving Distance
13-2-21. Distance is important here.
Driving Accuracy
59-62-24. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but as always it helps.
SG: Approach
Of the top three last year, only Richard Karlberg was inside the top 35.
Greens in Regulation
54-11-3. Herbert was certainly weaker with his GIR figures than previous winners but strong iron play is important.
Scrambling
21-1-1. Solid play around the greens is essential.
Putts per GIR
6-1-6. In low scoring events, it's extremely important to putt well.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 18th, 2nd and 6th played as the three hardest holes in 2021.
Birdie Holes
Outwith the four par 5's, the short par 4 1st, par 3 11th and par 4 15th were the only holes to play under par.
Fast or Slow Start
Lucas Herbert led from start to finish last year. Herbert and Veerman were in the top two after the opening round. However, it is worth noting that runner up, Rikard Karlberg, was seven shots behind Herbert after the opening round.
Closing stretch
The par 4 16th and 18th holes ranked 4th and 1st for difficulty last year, whereas the par 5 17th was the easiest hole to offer a little respite.
In-play
Irish Open In-Play Blog
3 July 2022, 8:15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Meronk |
-14 |
| Zanotti |
-13 |
| Campillo |
-13 |
| Senior |
-13 |
| Kofstad |
-12 |
| Catlin |
-12 |
| Lawrence |
-11 |
| Herbert |
-11 |
Round 3 Summary
Adrian Meronk birdied his last three holes to take a one stroke lead into the final round at Mount Juliet.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I'm just happy with my score so far. I played really solid again today and I can't wait for tomorrow." Adrian Meronk
Round 4 Weather
Rain showers possible throughout the day and wind expected to peak around 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Adrian Meronk is favourite with the bookies at 9/4. The Pole has had plenty of chances to win over the past two years but has so far been unable to convert. Six top 10 finishes in just twelve starts underlines just how well he's played this year but there remains a nagging doubt over his ability to cope with pressure.
Meronk jointly led going into the final round of the Qatar Masters in March but was largely disappointing. This may well be the week he breaks through but we are happy to take him on given hsi tendency to drop shots under pressure.
Fabrizio Zanotti is next in the betting at 6/1 but it's not a price we are keen to back. He's a past winner on Tour but he was poor in contention a few weeks ago at the British Masters and hasn't won on Tour since 2017. He's too short in our opinion.
Jorge Campillo (7/1), Jack Senior (9/1) and John Catlin (9/1) are next in the betting. Campillo and Catlin make appeal for the reasons below. Jack Senior is the player we like least out of the trip and we're happy to consider others.
Where is the value?
With Meronk potentially vulnerable, we are looking at supplementing yesterday's bet on Lucas Herbert with two win only plays.
Round 4 Bets
- 1pt Win Only Jorge Campillo 7/1 @ Skybet
- 1pt Win Only Jon Catlin 9/1 @ Skybet
Thriston Lawrence was under consideration as an each way bet given Skybet are offering favourable each way terms of 1/4 1-4 but we see Campillo and Catlin as two of the three players (alongside Lucas Herbert) who will challenge Meronk today. Catlin has won three times on Tour and Campillo has won twice, neither player should be fazed by being in contention. Indeed Catlin has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. Campillo has a slightly less impressive record in contention (he has a ⭐⭐⭐ GBC Pressure Performance Rating) but his tee to green game has been impressive this week and he's worth backing as well.
1 July 2022, 8:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Campillo |
-11 |
| Zanotti |
-10 |
| Meronk |
-10 |
| Seven players tied |
-8 |
Round 2 Summary
Round 1 leader, Ryan Fox, struggled to a 73 and slipped to 11th. Jorge Campillo has taken up the mantle and leads by a stroke going into the weekend.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"There's so much support here. I almost feel like an adopted Irishman this week." Lucas Herbert
Round 3 Weather
Rain showers possible throughout the day and wind expected to peak around 12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Adrian Meronk heads up the betting at 5/1. Yet to win on the DP World Tour, he's had plenty of opportunities in the past 18 months to notch a win but has been unable to do so. There's no doubting he's talented enough to win but we won't lose any sleep if he goes on to win at the odds available. He was in a similar position at halfway at the Dutch Open a few weeks ago before a poor third round scuppered his chances.
Seamus Power is next in the betting at 11/2 and it's easy to see why he'd be favoured by many over the final 36 holes. A PGA Tour winner last year, he'll continue to enjoy plenty of home support over the weekend. However, his score has largely been reliant on his putting (he leads SG: Putting) and it's questionable whether he can continue to run hot with the flat stick.
Jorge Campillo is available at a best price 8/1 and that's not an unattractive price. A two time winner on Tour, he's often underestimated by the bookmakers.
Where is the value?
With Meronk and Power heading up the betting, it may be possible to pick up a proven winner coming from off the pace. Sebastian Soderberg was under consideration given his score includes an 8 on the par 5 18th hole in round 1. However, we wanted 33/1 on the Swede and the best price available is 28/1.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Lucas Herbert 18/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Lucas won here last year and we like the 18/1 available on him to repeat the feat. He mentioned post round that he is receiving plenty of support this week and that will surely spur him on over the weekend. A winner on both the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, he's a far better closer than many of the players on this leaderboard. He's made 12 birdies and an eagle so far this week, he's clearly capable of making up the four shot deficit if he can keep the errors off his card.
30 June 2022, 9:05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fox |
-8 |
| Campillo |
-7 |
| Zanotti |
-7 |
| Lacroix |
-7 |
| Schneider |
-7 |
| Six Players Tied |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
Soft conditions with no wind saw low scores, with no one able to catch Ryan Fox who caught fire, playing his final nine holes in six under par.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"So it's just one of those days where everything went really well and I managed to keep it in the fairway for the most part, which around this golf course, if you're in the rough, that's pretty tough out there, which I found sort of through the first six holes. And there's definitely some confidence there. I feel really comfortable here, where my game's at." Ryan Fox
Round 2 Weather
Mostly cloudy in the morning with areas of drizzle then becoming cloudy and windy in the afternoon with rain likely in the mid to late afternoon. The wind is expected to blow 15-20mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ryan Fox is in the form of his career at the moment and clearly carrying a lot of confidence each week. He has a great record in Ireland and many will be tempted by the 9/2. He may be available at a bigger price this time tomorrow though, with afternoon winds expected to cause the later starters some trouble.
Jordan Smith and Aaron Rai both have the potential advantage of a morning start but odds of around 10/1 don't make much appeal at this stage.
Where is the value?
The early starters could make a potential move with the best of the conditions so we will look for potential movers tomorrow morning.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Sami Valimaki 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Sami returned to form last week, finishing 4th in Germany which would have been a major confidence boost - his first top 10 since his breakthrough year in 2020. Putts Per GIR was a key stat around here last year and Sami ranked 5th for this category today. Sami is a player to stick with when he gets hot and looks overpriced again this week.
