Preview
Course Info
Designer: Sam Torrance, 2001 with 2009 updates from Gary Stephenson
Type of Course: Modern Links
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Thick if you miss wide enough
Greens: Fescue/Bentgrass
Water Hazard: Not in-play much
Par 5's: 3rd, 6th, 12th and 18th.
Premium on: Approach Play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Fairmont hosted the Scottish Championship in 2020, won by Adrian Otaegui. That event was played in October so colder and softer conditions.
The Hero Open was played at the Forest of Arden in 2020 before switching to Fairmont last year.
Weather Forecast
A mixed forecast for the week with temperatures ranging between 17 and 20 degrees.
Thursday
Cloudy and a gentle breeze. Wind 5-11mph
Friday
Cloudy and a moderate breeze. Wind 7-14mph
Saturday
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 10-16mph
Sunday
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 8-12mph
Trends
Winning score
Adrian Otaegui won here with a score of -23 on 2020 and Grant Forrest won with a score of -24 last year. Expect another low scoring affair!
Winning Profile
Otaegui was ranked 248th in the world and had finished 2nd at the English Championship earlier that season. He had two wins on tour and several 2nd place finishes previously. In contrast, Forrest was winning for the first time on Tour and was 337th in the world.
Correlating Courses
Hanbury Manor which hosted the English Championship may be a useful guide. The Renaissance which hosts the Scottish Open is another modern links design.
Course form
Three of the top five last year had posted a top 35 finish at the Scottish Championship in 2020 but winner, Grant Forrest, had missed the cut. Course form preferred but not essential.
Recent form
Recent form isn't essential, three of the top 5 last year arrived on the back of a missed cut the week before. That was the same as the 2020 Scottish Championship. A common trait across the top five in both events was the fact they had all shown signs of form in the preceding weeks. All five last year had a top 10 finish in their last eight starts. Four out of five in 2020 had a top 10 in their last eight starts.
Favourites or Outsiders
With a weak front of the market we can take the front runners on.
Stats Analysis
With only two years of course form to go on, we will analyse the stats of the top three at each of the events.
SG: Off The Tee
The front three in 2020 ranked 30-27-9. The front three in 2021 ranked 20-23-56. Solid driving definitely preferred.
Driving Distance
The front three in 2020 ranked 76-17-58. The front three in 2021 ranked 21-130-134. Not necessary to hit it far to compete.
Driving Accuracy
The front three in 2020 ranked 28-64-14. The front three in 2021 ranked 108-2-27. Driving Accuracy is not massively important this week.
SG: Approach
The front three in 2020 ranked 1-3-12. The front three in 2021 ranked 10-15-24. Strong iron play is key.
Greens in Regulation
The front three in 2020 ranked 30-4-8. The front three in 2021 ranked 1-26-28. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
The front three in 2020 ranked 9-16-13. The front three in 2021 ranked 10-40-4. Strong short game preferred.
SG: Putting
The front three in 2020 ranked 7-23-38. The front three in 2021 ranked 16-5-10. Strong putting helps but not key.
In-Play
Tough Holes1
The 1st and 2nd holes played as stroke index 1 and 2 last year. They were closely followed by the 17th and 10th holes.
Birdie Holes
Par 5 6th was the easiest hole on the course, followed by the driveable par 4 7th hole. Short par 4's at the 4th and 15th provide other birdie opportunities outside of the par 5's.
Fast or Slow Start
In 2020 the eventual top 6 were ALL in the top 10 after round one. Last year, three of the top five were inside the top 10 after round one. However, winner Grant Forrest, was outside the top 10. Fast starts are preferred though.
In-play
Hero Open In-Play Blog
30 July 2022, 9.00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Crocker |
-18 |
| Dantorp |
-16 |
| Otaegui |
-15 |
| Law |
-15 |
| Farr |
-14 |
| Pepperell |
-14 |
| De Jager |
-14 |
| Dubuisson |
-14 |
Round 3 Summary
Sean Crocker eagled the last hole to give himself a two shot lead going into the final round. Unlike in previous rounds, where we saw scores of 61 and 63, the lowest score in round three was 67. A testing breeze meant low scores were hard to come by.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It would probably be the most special day of my life (to win this week). I play golf for the love of it, for trophies and all that stuff. It’s been a long time since I’ve held something shiny so it would be a nice little present." Sean Crocker
"It would be amazing (to win). I wasn’t too far away last year, I know the golf course well, so hopefully we go out and give it a good go tomorrow." David Law
Round 4 Weather
Showers are possible until early afternoon and cloudy thereafter. The wind should blow around 12mph all day with gusts of up to 20mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Crocker is 17/10 favourite but he remains a player we struggle to side with on a Sunday. He was poor when leading after three rounds at the 2021 European Masters and has generally failed to improve his position on a leaderboard when in contention.
Jens Dantorp is 2nd favourite at 9/2 and also makes little appeal. He was 2nd going into the final round last week before slipping to 8th and whilst he will have taken much from that experience, it may be that this is a step too far. A win would mean significantly more to him than the others given he doesn't currently have a Tour card.
Adrian Otaegui (6/1) and David Law (7/1) are the only other players priced up below 10/1. Otaegui would be preferred given he ranks 2nd SG: Tee to Green this week and is a course winner. He shot a 63 at the 2020 Scottish Championship to overturn a four shot deficit and that will surely be in his mind tomorrow.
Where is the value?
Given our doubts over the front two, there may be value looking at those further down the leaderboard. Grant Forrest won from the front last year, Adrian Otaegui won from off the pace at the 2020 Scottish Championship.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Victor Dubuisson 20/1 @ Coral/Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
A poor 2nd round prevented Victor from being further up the leaderboard but he was excellent in round three, ranking 2nd for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for Greens in Regulation. A two time winner on Tour, it's been almost seven years since his last win but those wins saw him defeat Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy amongst others. He's a player who is capable of a low final round and with doubts over the leaders. We're happy to play him at standout odds of 20/1.
29 July 2022, 8.40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Crocker |
-15 |
| Jamieson |
-14 |
| Otaegui |
-13 |
| Law |
-13 |
| Dantorp |
-13 |
| Thomson |
-13 |
| Five players tied |
-12 |
Round 2 Summary
Sean Crocker maintained his lead at the top but the event remains wide open with 23 players within five shots. We saw a big draw bias today as the wind blew harder in the afternoon, Ross Fisher is the only player in the top seven who came from the tougher half.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"Nothing crazy (has clicked on the greens this week). I enjoy the greens. Me and Stevie (caddie Steve Pettit) are working well together, we’re just getting up, picking a line, and not thinking more. Just stroking it down the hole and hoping it goes in." Sean Crocker
Round 3 Weather
Showers are expected early tomorrow morning but it should be dry from 10am onwards. It should be much windier with a consistent breeze of 15mph and gusts up to 25mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Crocker is 9/2 favourite but there were enough concerns with his play off the tee for us to happily swerve. Twice he hit provisional balls off the tee and escaped both holes in a combined one under par.
Adrian Otaegui is much preferred at 13/2, he has experience winning here albeit in softer conditions to this week. Scott Jamieson and David Law should enjoy the challenge tomorrow however they are not tempting us in at 7/1.
Where is the value?
Several of the chasing pack caught our eye. Jonathon Thomson looks disrespected at 33/1 whilst Ewan Ferguson will carry a lot of momentum tomorrow after his 61. We are already on him pre-event but wouldn't put anyone off getting him onside, Ferguson showed his ability in the wind when winning in Qatar this year.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Callum Shinkwin 40/1 @ Unibet/Bet Rivers (1/5 1-4)
Shinkwin is five back of the leader but has plenty of time to work his way into this. He ranks 1st tee to green this week and 2nd for approach. A strong driver of the ball in general, if his irons are firing this week he is a real danger to the field. He should have won the Scottish Open in 2017 and will have his sights set on making up for that this week. As an added bonus, he has won a low scoring event in Cyprus in 2020, closing with a 63.
28 July 2022, 9.10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Crocker |
-9 |
| Chesters |
-8 |
| Otaegui |
-8 |
| Langasque |
-8 |
| Dantorp |
-8 |
| Stow |
-8 |
| Six players tied |
-7 |
Round 1 Summary
Sean Crocker shot a course record 63 to lead by a stroke after the opening 18 holes of the Hero Open. A low scoring day saw only 18 players over par and we're likely to see the cut being made well under par,
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"That was fun. I'll be honest, I don't get too many days like that on the greens. It's fun making putts, I'll definitely say that, because I'm not used to it as much as some of these guys." Sean Crocker
"I like it up here, the guys are really good in letting me come up a couple of weeks ago for a couple of practice rounds. It’s not far from home, in my own bed for a change, which is nice. It’s weird, you forget I’m playing in a tournament this week when you’re in your own place." David Law
Round 2 Weather
The wind will be fairly consistent throughout the day, peaking at 12mph early afternoon. Those out first thing in the morning may have some rain showers to contend with.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Adrian Otaegui and Romain Langasque are 15/2 joint favourites with three rounds remaining. Both players are tucked in one shot behind the leader.
Langasque has been having an extremely consistent year, recording five top ten finishes from 16 starts. However, he was wayward off the tee in round one and that's enough for us to pass over him at the moment.
Otaegui is a course winner, having won the Scottish Championship in 2020. He held slightly more appeal but with 35 players within four shots of the lead, there's no need to rush into taking single figure prices just yet.
Sean Crocker (9/1) is the only other player priced up below 10/1. The American is clearly enjoying his golf right now but there remains a doubt over his ability to hole enough putts over the final 54 holes.
Where is the value?
We've seen the past two years that it is important to be near the top of the leaderboard after the opening round. With a bunched leaderboard, Connor Syme made appeal at 25/1 to be 2nd round leader but ultimately we've opted for one selection in the outright market.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Pep Angles 150/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
Angles played really nicely in round one, ranking 2nd for Driving Accuracy and 4th for Greens in Regulation. It's been a quiet year to date but he finished 2nd last year at the Mallorca Golf Open, the second time he's finished runner-up on the DP World Tour. He's had experience of competing for a DP World Tour title and odds of 150/1 are too big in our opinion.
