Event Info
Starts: 5th August 2021
Course: Fairmont Resort, Scotland
Par: 72
Length: 6,836 yards
2020 Champion: Adrian Otaegui
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +0.2pts
Pre-Event Bets: +6.2pts
1pt EW Darius Van Driel 66/1 @ SpreadEx (1/5 1-6)
1pt EW Callum Shinkwin 66/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-6)
1pt EW David Law 66/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-6)
1pt EW Alexander Levy 66/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: -6pts
5 August 2021(-3pts)
1pt EW Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 66/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Lucas Bjerregaard 125/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
6 August 2021(-2pts)
1pt EW Jonathan Caldwll 50/1 @ 10Bet (1/5 1-4)
7 August 2021(-1pts)
1pt Win Only Jordan Smith 30/1 @ Bet365
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Sam Torrance, 2001 with 2009 updates from Gary Stephenson
Type of Course: Modern Links
Used Since: 2020.
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Thick if you miss wide enough.
Greens: Fescue/Bentgrass
Water Hazard: Not in-play much
Par 5's: 3rd, 6th, 12th and 18th.
Premium on: Approach Play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Fairmont hosted the Scottish Championship in 2020, won by Adrian Otaegui.
The event was played in October so colder and softer conditions.
The Hero Open was played at the Forest of Arden last year.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Showers and sunshine all week. Temperatures ranging between 13 and 18 degrees. Appears to be draw bias for the morning starters on Thursday with lesser winds to contend with.
Thursday
Light Rain showers and a fresh breeze. Wind 4-18mph
Friday
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 8-12mph
Saturday
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 7-14mph
Sunday
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 9-14mph
Trends
Winning score
Otaegui won here with a score of -23. 2nd place was -19 and 3rd was -17.
Winning Profile
Otaegui was ranked 248th in the world and had finished 2nd at the English Championship earlier that season. He had two wins on tour and several 2nd place finishes previously.
Correlating Courses
Hanbury Manor which hosted the English Championship may be a useful guide. The Renaissance which hosts the Scottish Open is another modern links design.
Course form
None available as made it's debut on tour last year.
Recent form
Three of the top 5 last year arrived on the back of a missed cut. 4/5 had a top 10 finish in their last 8 starts.
Favourites or Outsiders
The market favourites look vulnerable this week and should be taken on like last week.
Stats Analysis
We will analyse the stats of the top three last year as it was the course debut.
SG: Off The Tee
30-27-9. Not a key stat this week.
Driving Distance
76-17-58 Not necessary to compete.
Driving Accuracy
28-64-14. Driving Accuracy is not massively important this week.
SG: Approach
1-3-12. Strong iron play is key.
Greens in Regulation
30-4-8. Confirms the importance of strong iron play.
SG: Around The Green
9-16-13. Strong short game preferred.
SG: Putting
7-23-38. Strong putting helps but not key.
In-Play
Tough Holes
492 yard par 4 10th was the toughest hole on course in 2020, followed by the 16th and 17th. 4 of the 9 toughest holes were on the first 5 holes - 1,2,3,5.
Birdie Holes
Par 5 6th was the easiest hole on the course, followed by the driveable par 4 7th hole. Short par 4 4th hole is another birdie opportunity outside of the par 5's.
Fast or Slow Start
A fast start is imperative here if we go by last year. The top 6 were ALL in the top 10 after round one.
In-play
Hero Open In-Play Blog
8th August 2021, 9.25am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Forrest | -18 |
| Hill | -18 |
| Tarrio | -17 |
| Law | -16 |
| Bjerregaard | -16 |
Calum Hill has regained possession of his lead and is joined by Grant Forrest who came from seven shots back to join Hill on 18 under par.
Hill is now favourite at 9/4, closely followed by Forrest at 3/1. Santiago Tarrio is next in the betting at 4/1 and our 66/1 pre-event play David Law is 9/1.
The front three in the market have all been showing signs they are about to strike on the European Tour. Hill has posted four top 10s this year and is a multiple Challenge Tour winner, Forrest has racked up two top 6 finishes in the last year and Tarrio is on an astonishing run of eight top 20's including two wins on the Challenge Tour.
David Law is the closest European Tour winner in contention and should give our subscribers a good run for their money at a juicy price.
In all honesty though, it's hard to see past the front four in the betting now but this is the European Tour where strange things happen on Sundays. There is one man off the pace we feel chasing could suit today.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Win Only Jordan Smith 30/1 @ Bet365
Jordan let slip an amazing chance to land his second European Tour title last week and he's now in a position where he can try post a number without any pressure on him. That is when Smith is at his best and if the leaders are to stall, he seems most likely to pull through. Rounds of 62 and 65 last week show his ability to go low and two 3rd places this year suggest a win is just around the corner.
6th August 2021, 10.55pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bjerregaard | -15 |
| Hill | -13 |
| Walters | -12 |
| Tarrio | -12 |
| Two players tied | -11 |
Round two is still incomplete due to thunder and heavy rain this morning and there is three players in the top 15 still to finish. Our in-play 125/1 tip Lucas Bjerregaard leads by two over round one leader Calum Hill, after a sensational 62.
We will assess the state of play properly after round three is complete but for now there is one value play we want to add.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Jonathan Caldwell 50/1 @ 10Bet (1/5 1-4)
Jonathan went backwards today with a 70 but he remains in contention in 7th place, 5 shots off the lead. We quite often see a bounce back from leaders after a poor round and we expect him to regain the form we saw on Thursday. A winner as a few weeks ago in Sweden on a similar modern links track, he is one of the few on the leaderboard with recent winning experience on tour and that can count for a lot on the European Tour. Take the 50/1 while it lasts.
5th August 2021, 6.35pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hill | -9 |
| Caldwell | -8 |
| Fisher | -7 |
| Sciot-Siegrist | -7 |
| Hanna | -7 |
As identified in our preview, the weather played a huge part in the opening round of the Hero Open at Fairmont. Nineteen of the top 20 played in the morning wave and those players who played in the afternoon with be cursing their luck at having to play in blustery conditions.
Callum Hill, leads the way on nine under par. He's now 10/3 favourite with the bookmakers to go on and win his first European Tour title. A multiple winner on the Challenge Tour, Hill has been close to a breakthrough win on the main tour for quite some time and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win at home in Scotland. However, with the weather forecast to be fairly unpredictable over the next few days, you'd be braver than us to take the 10/3.
As identified by the preview, the top 6 at last year's Scottish Championship were all inside the top 10 after round one. We won't be looking too far down the leaderboard for round two picks.
Conditions are set to be wet and windy throughout Friday. The morning starters will face winds of around 12mph, whilst the afternoon starters in round two will face winds of 16mph. There is a chance of a thunderstorm mid-morning. If there is a weather delay, conditions on Saturday morning look slightly better so favour should be given to late afternoon starters.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 66/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
Nicolai recorded his best ever finish on the European Tour earlier this season when 2nd at the Tenerife Open. He caught our eye as a decent bad weather player when shooting a respectable third round of 70 at last year's Austrian Open, which was played in torrential rain. A multiple winner on the Pro Golf Tour in 2017, he can win if the opportunity arises.
- 0.5pts Each Way Lucas Bjerregaard 125/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
Lucas made the shortlist for this week due to his performance last week (32nd) in Northern Ireland on a course that shouldn't have suited him. His form has fallen off a cliff since 4th place at the 2019 WGC Matchplay but he was a classy operator a few years ago and he's worth a speculative play. Currently four shots off the pace, he has a bit of catching up to do but the price with Boylesports is a standout and worth taking.
