Event Info
Starts: 22nd April 2021
Course: Meloneras Golf, Gran Canaria
Par: 70 (34-36)
Length: 6,715 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +30.75pts
Pre-Event Bets: +38.75pts
1pt EW Garrick Higgo 35/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.25pts EW Zander Lombard 250/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
1.5pts Pep Angles Top 20 finish 11/2 @Bet Victor
1.5pts Ondrej Lieser Top 20 finish 6/1 @ Paddy Power
1.5pts Richard Mansell Top 20 finish 6/1 @ Bet Victor
In-Play Bets: -8pts
23 April 2021 (-5pts)
1ptEW Jamie Donaldson - 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
1pt EW Eddie Pepperell - 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Maverick Antcliff - 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
24 April 2021 (-1pt)
0.5pts EW Zander Lombard - 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
25 April 2021 (-2pts)
2pts Win Only Sam Horsfield - 8/1 @ Bet Victor
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Ron Kirby
Type of Course: Parkland/Coastal
Used Since: N/A
Par 5's: 4th, 13th and 18th
Premium on: Birdie Average/Par 3 Scoring/ability to deal with wind
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Rafa Cabrera Bello hosts the tournament this week.The course hosted the 2007 Spanish PGA Championship but hasn't hosted any European Tour events before.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Sunny from Wednesday onwards with temperatures creeping into the early 80's. Last week the wind didn't play much of a part despite the forecast - we may see it more prevelant on the first two days this time.
Thursday
Sunny and a fresh breeze. Max winds 10mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals and a fresh breeze. Max winds 10mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals and fresh breeze. Max winds 10mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals and fresh breeze. Max winds 10mph.
Trends
Winning score
This course is being used for the first time so we have no previous scores to analyse.
Winning Profile
This course is being used for the first time so we can't compare previous winners.
Correlating Courses
Course designer Ron Kirby had a hand in designing the PGA Centenary course at Gleneagles, Mount Juliet and Old Head. However, none of those are likely to give us any great insight.
Course form
This course is being used for the first time so we can't compare previous winners.
Recent form
This course is being used for the first time so we can't compare previous winners.
Nationality
This course is being used for the first time so we can't compare previous winners.
Stats Analysis
This course is being used for the first time so we can't analyse stats from previous years.
In Play
This course is being used for the first time so we can't analyse stats from previous years.
In-play
Gran Canaria Lopesan Open In-Play Blog
24 April 2021, 9.45pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Higgo | -18 |
| Syme | -16 |
| Pavon | -16 |
| Schwab | -16 |
| Winther | -15 |
| Horsfield | -15 |
A seven under par 63 was enough to see Garrick Higgo top the leaderboard in Gran Canaria and he is now a best price 9/4 to lift the trophy tomorrow. Higgo got off to the perfect start, playing his opening four holes in five under par and he was able to pick up two further strokes coming home.
We put up Higgo at 35/1 pre-event for our subscribers and we're obviously hoping he can convert from here. We rate Higgo highly and his win percentage is impressive for a player so young. Higgo only turned pro in 2019 and has already notched four wins in less than 50 career starts. Admittedly, three of those wins came on the Sunshine Tour but a win at last year's Open de Portugal gave him a win on the European Tour.
The win in Portugal was particularly impressive as he shot a bogey free 65 which included a birdie at the last to win by a shot. He was put under pressure down the stretch by a charging Pep Angles and it was to Higgo's credit that he held him off. He has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and he's clearly a player who can get the job done when in contention.
A slight concern with Higgo is the fact his position at the top is largely built on his putting. He ranks 47th SG: Approach and 81st SG: Off The Tee. His driving has been particularly wayward at times and he's been fortunate thus far. Despite some average play with his long game, he ranks 1st SG: Putting and we'll need to hope the putter remains hot tomorrow.
The bookmakers have priced up Matthias Schwab (6/1), Sam Horsfield (8/1) and Connor Syme (8/1) as Higgo's biggest threats and all three are capable. Schwab has yet to drop a shot all week and has been knocking on the door of a win for some time now. He's liable to miss a short putt under pressure though and for that reason he's probably short enough in our eyes.
Connor Syme shot an over par opening round and is 17 under par for his last 36 holes. A third consecutive round in the low 60s would be hard to beat but it's difficult to keep that level of play up for three days in a row, let alone under pressure when seeking your first win on Tour. Out of Schwab, Syme and Horsfield, we rate Horsfield as Higgo's biggest threat.
The weather is again forecast to be pleasant with the wind expected to be lighter in the morning before reaching a maximum of 9mph in the afternoon. We should see conditions more like the first two days rather than yesterday.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Win Only Sam Horsfield 8/1 @ BetVictor
Horsfield got off to a slow start this week, firing a one under par 69 on the opening day. Rounds of 61 and 65 have seen him pull within three shots of the lead and he's a huge danger to Higgo. Horsfield won twice last season in impressive fashion and he certainly has the firepower to go low in the final round. He ranks inside the top 20 for SG: Approach and SG: Off The Tee and he'll have plenty of birdie opportunities tomorrow. He was in contention at the Kenya Savannah Classic two starts ago and made a bogey at the final hole to miss out on a playoff. That was his first time in contention since his win at the Celtic Classic in August so we can probably put that down to rust and fully expect a strong showing tomorrow.
24 April 2021, 8.00am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Olesen | -14 |
| Enoch | -13 |
| Besseling | -13 |
| Schwab | -12 |
| Kieffer | -12 |
| Roussel | -12 |
Thorbjorn Olesen was one of three players to shoot a course record 61 and is one shot clear at the top of the leaderboard.
Olesen hasn't won since the Italian Open in July 2018, largely due to off course issues. It's well known he was arrested in July 2019 and charged with sexual assualt and several other offences. A suspension from the Tour saw him miss much of 2019/2020 and it was only his trial being pushed back to December 2021 that allowed him to compete again after the hiatus for Covid-19.
This is his first start of 2021. A wrist injury at the start of the year and the birth of his son several weeks ago has seen him out of action. However, the lack of competitive play hasn't hindered him so far and we shouldn't underestimate the effect the arrival of his son could have on him this weekend. The arrival of a little one tends to put things into perspective and it may well be that Thorbjorn benefits immensely from this.
The bookies have priced him up at 4/1 to convert and are very much banking on him performing like the player he was prior to his problems. Olesen won five times between 2012 and 2018 and was a player who was more than capable when in contention. He also enjoys the advantage of having a group of chasers with one win between them (only Garrick Higgo has won from the other players in the top 8).
We remain cautious about Olesen. He has cut a relaxed figure the opening two days and said he came into the event with "little expectation." However, that is no longer the case and attention will now focus on him. With scoring low and the chasing pack inevitably making plenty of birdies, he won't be able to coast from here.
Wil Besseling and Mathias Schwab are rated as the biggest dangers to Olesen at 7/1. Neither has made a breakthrough on the European Tour and at single figure odds we're happy to leave them alone for the time being.
The weather is again forecast to be pleasant with the wind expected to be lighter in the morning before reaching a maximum of 11mph in the afternoon.
We have strong interest already this weekend with our pre-event pick, Garrick Higgo, and yesterday's 100/1 in-play selection, Maverick Antcliff, placed at 11 under. We are adding one more play.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Zander Lombard 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Zander was one of our pre-event selections and we'd like to go back in with a top up. He ranks 2nd SG: Approach this week and posted on Instagram yesterday that he "loves the way the game feels again". He's three shots outside the each way places at the moment but with birdies aplenty there's no reason why he can't make that up if his putter warms up.
22 April 2021, 9.15pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hansen | -7 |
| Luiten | -7 |
| Kieffer | -7 |
| Roussel | -7 |
| 7 players tied | -6 |
As expected, the resort course at Meloneras yielded plenty of birdies and it was no surprise to see 107 players break par in the opening round. Four players are tied at the top, with two players coming from the morning wave and two players coming from the afternoon starters.
The wind was moderate all day and as a result we saw an equal mix of morning and afternoon starters in the top 24. Tournament host, Rafa Cabrera Bello, was one of those players and he carded a solid round of 65.
Given how bunched the scoring is, all players are double figures with the bookies. Joost Luiten has been installed as 10/1 favourite but in truth it's all to play for. Five others find themselves priced up below 20/1, one of those being last week's runner up, Max Kieffer (12/1).
The weather is again forecast to be pleasant with the wind expected to be calmer in the morning before reaching a maximum of 9mph in the afternoon.
With the scoring again expected to be low, we're happy to select a couple of players at 40/1 and above who got off to a good start in round one.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Eddie Pepperell 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
The global pandemic hasn't done Eddie any favours off the course and other than a two week stretch in Autumn last year, it's been a struggle on the course too. A bogey free opening round of 65 was a solid start and it was encouraging to see him rank 4th for Greens in Regulation and 10th SG: Approach. He's had some fine results at the Portugal Masters which is not a dissimilar test and we think he might be one to watch over the next few days.
- 1pt Each Way Jamie Donaldson 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Jamie ranked 2nd for Greens in Regulation in round one and we like him to make progress up the leaderboard tomorrow with an early tee time. He's been a model of consistency post lockdown, with nine top 20 finishes in his last 19 starts. He's also gone close to a win on several occasions and we think this might just be his week.
- 0.5pts Each Way Maverick Antcliff 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Finally, Maverick is a player we rate highly and we're happy to get him onside for small stakes. He has an early tee time and should enjoy the best of conditions. Three wins in China in 2019 were a solid start to a fledgling pro career and he had a very respectable first year on the European Tour last year. He'll need to tidy his game up a bit in order to contend but he's worth a small wager at three figure odds.
