Preview

Course Info

Course Designer - Peter Harradine
Fairways - Narrow, Flat, Bunkers in key landing spots
Rough - Thick
Greens - Tifdwarf Bermuda. High quality, meaning putts are holeable
Water Hazards - Featured throughout
Par 5's - 2nd, 8th, 10th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2005
Premium on - Accuracy off the tee and strong iron play

Weather Forecast

Summary

Warm temperatures ranging from 21 degrees early in morning to peaks of 30 degrees. Wind picks up in the afternoon each day and morning starts are preferred. ​

Thurs - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph late afternoon.
Fri - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph late afternoon.
Sat - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph late afternoon.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph late afternoon.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

The event starts EARLY this week on Wednesday morning.

 

The Fire course has never been used on tour, however, it's sister course on the Jumeirah Golf Estates, the Earth Course, has hosted the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai.

 

Both are Greg Norman designs, the Fire Course is deemed the easier course of the two. Greg Norman also designed Al Mouj golf course in Oman, which has hosted on the European Tour since 2018 and plenty of times on the Challenge Tour. He wrote the following about the Fire Course;

 

"The Fire plays more like a links course, so there are more options for playing the ground game and using the contours, especially when the conditions are firm and fast".

 

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Trends

No trends available as new event.

Stats Analysis

No stats available as new event.

In Play

Tough Holes

2nd and 11th are par 3's measuring 250+ yards.

Birdie Holes

The four par 5s (5th, 7th, 13th and 18th) need to be taken advantage of, along with the short par 4's 1st and 16th. With that said, the 5th and 13th are over 620 yards.

Fast or Slow Start

It may be best to side with players after round 1 who have shot a good score in the afternoon as the course will play easier in the mornings. It will provide players from off the pace at halfway a chance to play catch up also.

Pre-Event Bets

1pt Each Way Martin Kaymer 14/1 @ Betfair 1/5 1-7

Martin is our pick of the favourites this week due to his exceptional record in this part of the world. Three times a winner in Abu Dhabi, plenty of top 10's in Dubai and played the Middle East events earlier this year in 8-16-13-10. He is now playing the best golf since his glory days and been knocking on the door all summer with a 2nd at the Andalucia Masters, 3rd at UK Championship and 5th most recently in Italy. A return to UAE should be just what he needs to get over the line.

1pt Each Way Callum Shinkwin 40/1 @ Betfair 1/5 1-7

Callum is riding the crest of a wave at the moment following his win and 4th place finish in Cyprus. He will carry great confidence into this week with all aspects of his game in good shape, in particular he has the power to score low here. We know he is capable of winning after a few weeks off as he has proved it recently. He has a nice early tee time with fellow Englishmen Sullivan and Pepperell and they should push each other along nicely. Finally, Norman hinted the Fire course has a linksy feel to it which will suit Shinkwin as he has a great links record with three top 10's in Scotland.

1pt Each Way Alexander Levy 50/1 @ Betfair 1/5 1-7

Alex is the epitome of a confidence player so finishes of 7th and 6th in the last three weeks tell us he might be about to strike. His last three wins on tour all followed a hot run of form and 4/5 of his European Tour victories have been won with scores of -17 or better. When birdies are the order of the day like it is here, he must be supported. Recent finishes of 4th in Oman (Norman design) and 5th in Saudi show he can play in this part of the world.

1pt Each way Kalle Samooja 80/1 @ Betfair 1/5 1-7

Kalle is a winner in waiting on tour and until he does, he will continue to be underrated by the bookmakers. He did absolutely nothing wrong a few weeks ago, when robbed by Callum Shinkwin at the Cyprus Open. Plays better in warmer conditions which will suit this week and a solid run of form in the Middle East earlier this year including a 3rd place finish in Qatar. 16th and 27th in his last two trips to Dubai which were both following a missed cut, he is a much better player coming into this event.

0.5pts Each way Bernd Ritthammer 200/1 @ Boylesports 1/5 1-8
1pt Top 20 finish 8/1 @ William Hill

The German really has the potential to be a prominent player on the European Tour in the coming years. 9th place finish in his last start at the Cyprus Showdown where he was playing some really nice stuff. Interestingly, he has won on a Greg Norman design in Oman in 2016 and also has a couple of nice results from the Dubai over the years. He is the pick of the outsiders with 8 places on offer at Boylesports.

Inplay

In-Play Blog

4 December 2020 6.45pm (Golf in Dubai Championship)

​-21 Sullivan
-19 Wallace
-18 Fisher
-18 Paratore
-17 Laporta
-17 Rozner
-16 Six Players Tied

Matt Wallace has cut Andy Sullivan's lead to two, and pars for both on the 18th have left the door slightly open for the chasing pack. Sullivan wasn't at his best today, especially on the back 9 where he had a few wayward drives, so he will be delighted to still have a two shot cushion. As mentioned in Thursday's blog, he was solid in the lead earlier this summer to win the UK Championship and he will have to be beaten tomorrow by a low round.

Matt Wallace is the obvious danger and he doesn't seem to have hit top gear yet. All three of his wins have come from behind and this will suit him. Ross Fisher did well to hang in there today after looking like he could fade away at one point, but we still have our doubts on him.

Given their win rate, Italians Paratore and Laporta can't be discounted, neither can big hitting Frenchman Antoine Rozner, although they will need at least a 65 you would have thought to have the slightest chance.

The course is set up ridiculously easy and Robert McIntyre was on 59 watch at one point after playing his first 7 holes in -7. If someone can get off to a fast start like that again we could have some great entertainment tomorrow. We have selected the man most likely to challenge Wallace and Sullivan in what will inevitably turn into a shootout.

2pts Renato Paratore Win Only - 10/1 @ Betfred

The Italian has played his way nicely into this tournament with round rounds of 65-65 the last two days. He now sits 3 shots behind Andy Sullivan which is a big ask, but the nature of the course does not suit leaders and birdies are a must tomorrow to get over the line. This suits Paratore's attacking game. He proved himself at the British Masters in the summer that he is fearless in contention and he's worth chancing here to gain his 3rd European Tour title.

3 December 2020 6pm (Golf in Dubai Championship)

​-17 Sullivan
-14 Fisher
-14 Wallace
-12 Rozner
-12 Howie
-12 Schmitt
-11 Six Players Tied

Andy Sullivan extended his lead to three today with a 66, and it really could have been much more with missed birdie putts at 10,11,12 and only a par from greenside on the Par 5 18th. Sully took 6 more putts today than round 1 and that was the only real difference to his game - he remains top of the tee to green stats.

The Englishman commented after his round that he feels in "complete control of his golf ball at the moment", and that should be worrying for the chasing pack. The bookmakers rate him a best price of 6/5 and that seems about right.

For however well he is playing, the nature of this golf course is that any of the chasers can go low. Steven Brown managed a 63 today and we can expect one or two of the group of 19 players at -9 to -11 to do the same tomorrow. 

Included in that pack at -10 is our two in-play picks - Danny Willett (45/1) and Mark Warren (66/1). We remain optimistic that one of the two will be in the places come Sunday, indeed they both rank in the top 10 tee to green so far so they just need the putter to heat up a little over the weekend.

We don't want to take on the front three in the outright market currently, so we have found some value in the side markets this evening. 

1pt Niklas Lemke Top 10 Finish - 10/3 @ Betfair
1pt Bernd Ritthammer Top German - 10/3 @ Betfair

Some of you may well already be on our advised 8/1 (now best price 12/5) top 20 play on Bernd, that was posted on our FREE Telegram service before the start, which can be found here. The German sits in 21st spot at the moment but is playing far better than that, in fact he is ranked 4th tee to green so far this week. He is 3 shots behind Max Schmitt in the top German market, however Schmitt's success thus far has been solely reliant on the putter (ranked 1st SG: Putting by a mile) and we can't expect him to keep that up all weekend. Martin Kaymer is a danger two shots behind Ritthammer however he is not firing on all cylinders this week and could lose motivation fast. 10/3 is a spot of value, and worth a play.

The Swede got it to -12 through 16 today and made two silly mistakes on 17 and 18 to fall back to -10. He should be able to shake that off and play his usual aggressive style tomorrow - he ranks 3rd for birdies this week so far. 18th for SG: Approach and 6th for SG: Putting should be a good combination of stats to score well this weekend. He is in the form of his career at the moment with three top 11's in his last seven starts, including 9th and 11th in his last two events. 

2 December 2020 5:45pm (Golf in Dubai Championship)

​-11 Sullivan
-9 Fisher
-9 Wallace
-9 Rozner
-8 Howie
-8 Warren
-8 Lengden
-7 Four Players Tied

This summer's English Championship winner Andy Sullivan took apart the Fire Course today with a 61 that was only two near misses on 17 and 18 away from being a 59. The bookies now rate him a best price of 10/3 and there would be no surprise where he to go onto win from here. 

Andy's post round interview showed a different approach led to the success today, he said " It’s funny, I played the front nine yesterday and I played the back nine a year ago when we came over to warm up, you do all this prep on these courses and try and work out where to hit it. This week I turned up and clattered it down and found myself being ridiculous under par through seven or eight holes on my front nine".

Andy was ruthless when he took the 36 hole lead at the English Championship, playing his final two rounds in 64-65 to win by three shots. He won that week with a total of 27 under par and we could be looking at something similar here this week unless they find a way to toughen the course. Two of his other wins were -23 and -17 so he's clearly suited to a birdie fest.

Counting against Sullivan's chances would be the fact that it is usually hard to back up a low round like that and he has an afternoon start tomorrow where the greens should be trickier.

There is also the class of the chasing pack. Fisher and Wallace have eight European Tour wins between them and Antoine Rozner won on the Challenge Tour twice last year and has had a couple of near misses on the big stage this year too. Kaymer and MacIntyre lurk at -6 too with a nice early start tomorrow.

The big boys seem to have a lot to play for these next two weeks, in terms of Race to Dubai and Masters invites (top 50 in the world rankings qualify automatically). Sullivan ranks 72nd, Wallace 51st, Macintyre 61st and Kaymer 83rd so they will be highly motivated and it's hard to see one of them not coming through at this stage.

The forecasted afternoon wind didn't quite materialise today and it's likely it won't be much of a factor tomorrow. However,  preference is still given to the early starters who have the best of the greens in the morning.

1pt Each Way Mark Warren (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ Boylesports
1pt Each Way Danny Willett (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 70/1 @ Betfred

Danny has had a horrendous summer by his standards but a return to Dubai might just be what he needs to get back in the places. He has an excellent record at the sister course here (Earth Course) with a win and a 5th place in the last two years at the DP World Tour Championship. Danny is -5 currently which was a great round considering he opened with two bogeys. If he can get himself into contention, there are not many better at closing so it is worth a play.

The Scotsman appears to be rejuvenated since his win in Austria earlier this year. Finishes of 39-25-MC-4 in his last four starts are evidence of this and the slight links resemblance of the Fire course can only be seen as an advantage for him.  His stats today were very impressive too, ranking in the top 20 for every category. He has opened with an 8 under par 64 and his aggressive game should suit the test this week.