Event Info
Starts: 16th September 2021
Course: Bernardus Golf, Netherlands
Par: 72
Length: 7,425 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +50.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8pts
1pt EW Joachim B Hansen 45/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
1pt EW Max Kieffer 60/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Marcus Helligkilde 125/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Clement Sordet 150/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Pep Angles 225/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Ondrej Lieser 300/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
In-Play Bets: +59pts
16 September 2021(+60.5pts)
1pt EW Marcus Helligkilde 40/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Kristoffer Broberg 100/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
17 September 2021 (-1.5pts)
0.75pts EW Ondrej Lieser 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Kyle Phillips
Type of Course: Heathland
Used Since: First time hosting
Fairways: Average
Rough: Heather and gorse await if too wide
Greens: Large
Water Hazard: Average
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 12th and 18th.
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Scattered showers and a gentle breeze. Wind 9mph
Friday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 7mph
Saturday
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 6mph
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph
Trends
Winning Profile
Winners of this event have generally been proven performers on the European Tour. Eleven of the last twelve winners of this event had won on the European Tour prior to their win.
Favourites or Outsiders
This is a pretty weak field and outsiders should be chanced.
Correlating Courses
Designer, Kyle Phillips, has also designed Kingsbarns, Dundonald Links and The Grove. Phillips doesn't have a specific design style so we don't place much emphasis on form from events held at these courses.
Course form
This course is being used for the first time.
Recent form
Recent winners of this event (previously known as the KLM Open) have had mixed recent form. The past two winners, Sergio Garcia and Ashun Wu, had both recorded a top 25 in their previous event (both European Masters). However, 2017 champion, Romain Wattel, had no recent form to speak of.
Stats Analysis
We don't have any previous events at Bernardus to analyse. However, the course website describes the course as "a Heathland golf course, which makes it accessible to any golfer. The numerous bunkers are laid out beautifully and the tricky water hazards seamlessly blend in with the background of dunes, heath and gorse."
In-play
Dutch Open In-Play Blog
18th September 2021, 9.15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Broberg | -23 |
| Helligkilde | -15 |
| Mansell | -14 |
| Canizares | -14 |
| Schmid | -14 |
A course record 61 saw Kristoffer Broberg open up an eight shot lead going into the final round of the Dutch Open.
The Swede was tipped up in our in-play blog after round one at 100/1 and those of you who backed him are now in a great position. A best price of 1/7, it would be a huge shock if Broberg wasn't to convert from here.
Chasing Broberg is our 125/1 pre-event selection, Marcus Helligkilde. The young Dane had an up and down day, mixing several short putts and wayward drives with seven birdies. He certainly has the firepower to catch Broberg if the leader gives him some encouragement.
Ultimately, we see Broberg winning tomorrow but we would anticipate the lead to be shorter than it is now. Despite the fantastic score, there were a few erratic drives today and he clearly wasn't comfortable on certain tee shots, something he alluded to in his post round press conference. That lack of confidence is bound to cost him a couple of dropped shots with the added pressure of winning for the first time in six years.
Given we already have the front two in the betting and we expect Broberg to convert, we're happy to leave things as they are and cheer on our men.
Round 4 Bet
- No bet
17th September 2021, 8.45pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Broberg | -12 |
| Helligkilde | -11 |
| Detry | -11 |
| Kieffer | -10 |
| Kearney | -10 |
Can we bet on events at Bernardus Golf every week? That's the question on our lips as we review our position at the halfway point in the Netherlands.
An eight under par 64 was enough to give Kristoffer Broberg a one shot lead. The Swede was tipped up in yesterday's blog at 100/1 and now finds himself as 8/1 second favourite in the betting. The Swede has endured a miserable few years with injuries since winning the BMW Masters in 2015 but his game looks good so far this week and he has to be respected.
Those of you who subscribe to our pre-event service are in an even stronger position. We've been championing Marcus Helligkilde all week, having tipped him up at 125/1 pre-event and then topped up after round one at 40/1 in the in-play blog. The young Dane missed two putts under 8ft in round two and could easily have been a couple of shots better. Winner wire-to-wire last month on the Challenge Tour, being near the lead shouldn't faze him.
Max Kieffer was also given out to subscribers at 66/1 and the German is a 9/1 shot in the betting. He's been knocking on the door of a win this season and will be a threat if he continues to drive as he has done the first two days.
The big danger to our position is Thomas Detry. The young Belgian is 3/1 favourite to convert from here and is one of the best talents on Tour yet to win. Four runner up finishes in the past 14 months indicate just how close he's been and an improved performance in contention at the Scottish Open suggests the win might not be far away. Odds of 3/1 are just too short though given his previous frailties though.
It's worth noting that the leaderboard is dominated by players who were on the PM-AM draw. The top 6 all played in that half of the draw as breezy conditions around lunchtime kept the round two afternoon starters honest.
Conditions for the third round will be dry with wind expected to peak around 10mph.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Ondrej Lieser 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Ondrej was one of our pre-event picks due to his ability to run hot and post consecutive high finishes. He ended last year with finishes of 4-1-1 on the Challenge Tour to show his ability to close out tournaments and top the Challenge Tour rankings. Odds of 40/1 are hugely disrespectful for a player driving the ball nicely (13th SG: Off The Tee this week) and fresh off the back of a good week last week (11th). One poor round cost him any chance of a win last week but he can bounce back nicely from that this week. We like Ondrej to make further progress up the leaderboard over the weekend.
16th September 2021, 9.05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Kearney | -7 |
| Kieffer | -6 |
| Simonsen | -6 |
| Nine Players Tied | -5 |
Our subscribers are off to a flying start with 60/1 Max Kieffer and 125/1 Marcus Helligkilde in the top 5. Huge 300/1 outsider Ondrej Lieser is also three off the lead for us so we're well positioned ahead of round two.
World number 435 Niall Kearney leads the way by one shot after a bogey free 65. He has impressed on his first season on tour with finishes of 4th in Canary Islands and 8th at the Hero Open. Both came from way off the pace though, and as he's fairly untested at this level the value seems to have passed now.
Bookmakers rate Thomas Pieters, Thomas Detry and Sam Horsfield the favourites still with all three at 12/1 or under. Justin Harding and Dean Burmester remain live outsiders too but as over 20 players are within three of the lead this is still wide open.
It looks set to be less windy tomorrow - the breeze caused difficulty for large parts of today. There should be no major weather bias and it should be another day of lower scoring.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Marcus Helligkilde 40/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
We were impressed with the quality of Helligkilde's tee to green game and he could have been a couple lower. We put him up pre-event at 125/1 due to his strong results this year and a win at the Danish PGA in 2020, where he beat the Hojgaard brothers. The price is too good to refuse a top up given his talent.
- 0.5pts Each Way Kristoffer Broberg 100/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
The Swede is one shot further back at four under and impressed with a bogey free round, ranking him 1st for scrambling. He also ranked top 20 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation. 16th in Abu Dhabi and 12th in Sweden earlier this year suggest he isn't too far off a big finish and this looks like the perfect challenge for him to do so.
