Preview
Course Info
Designer: Keith Preston
Type of Course: Parkland, elevated by 500ft
Used Since: 2014
Fairways: Wide
Greens: Large - Bentgrass.
Water Hazard: In-play on seven holes.
Par 5's: 1st, 9th, 10th and 12th.
Premium on: Driving Distance/Par 5 scoring
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
We have seven editions of this event at Albatross Golf Resort to assess.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Possible thunderstorm late afternoon. Wind 4-7mph
Friday
Possible thunderstorm. Wind 6-10mph
Saturday
Light rain. Wind 8-10mph
Sunday
Sunny intervals. Wind 6-8mph
Trends
Winning score
Ranged from -13 to -22 over the past seven events here. Johannes Veerman won with a score of -15 last year.
Winning Profile
Johannes Veerman was 179th in the world when winning last year. Thomas Pieters was 109th in the world but not in great form in 2019. When Pieters won here in 2015, it was his first tour win and he was world number 245. Andrea Pavan was ranked 256th but in great form prior to his win in 2018. Hadyn Porteous was 389th in 2017 but also in great form. Don't be afraid to take on someone further down the rankings this week if the price is right.
Course form
Pieters has strong course form prior to his win in 2019 but the other six victors had never finished better than 39th. It's not a necessity to have previous course form.
Recent form
Johannes Veerman won last year on the back of a hot run of form (46th at The Open, 8th at the Scottish Open and 3rd at the Irish Open). Pieters wasn't in strong form in 2019 but Pavan and Porteous were both 6th in their previous starts and had a top 20 in their second last start. Form is definitely preferred but not essential.
Favourites or Outsiders
Paul Peterson was a 1000/1 shot in 2016 but the other six winners started at less than 100/1.
Stats Analysis
We have Strokes Gained stats from the last three editions of the Czech Masters.
SG: Off The Tee
The last three winners ranked 6-7-72.
Driving Distance
The last seven winners ranked 29-1-41-9-40-1-24. Favour distance this week.
Driving Accuracy
The last seven winners ranked 39-54-34-25-3-27-34. Not a week for fairway finders.
SG: Approach
The last three winners ranked 17-1-39.
Greens in Regulation
The last seven winners ranked 25-2-6-2-1-22-2. Finding greens is extremely important here.
Scrambling
The last seven winners ranked 11-18-36-51-25-10-65. Not a key stat this week.
SG: Putting
The last three winners ranked 24-69-1.
Putts Per GIR
The last seven winners ranked 14-15-1-2-2-1-4.
In-Play
Tough Holes
Long par 4's, 17th and 8th, played as the toughest holes in 2021 followed by the 183 yard par 3 16th.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5's and the driveable par 4 6th hole played easiest in 2022.
Fast or Slow Start
Catch up is possible here. Last year's winner, Johannes Veerman, was four shots back after the opening round in 37th place.
In 2019, runner up, Adri Arnaus was SEVEN shots behind after round one and none of the top four were in the top nine after round one.
In-play
D+D Real Czech Masters In-Play Blog
19 August 2022, 9pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Green |
-14 |
| Pieters |
-11 |
| Schneider |
-11 |
| Mansell |
-11 |
| Kieffer |
-10 |
| De Jager |
-10 |
| Six Players Tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Our pre-event 66/1 pick, Gavin Green, took command of the tournament with a bogey free 63 which included two eagles, one of which a tap in. Louis De Jager struggled to back up his brilliance of day one, whilst Thomas Pieters, Richard Mansell and Marcel Schneider did their chances no harm.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I went to see my coach after one of the PGA Tour events, the Barbasol or Barracuda, and we did a small tweak and that has kind of helped me and just made me more consistent" Gavin Green
"I tend to do well after a big break. I just shut it down for a week and do something completely different – be a dad. It refreshes the mind, makes me hungry to come out and play and compete again. I feel like I’m ready every time I come back." Thomas Pieters
Round 3 Weather
Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers.. Wind looks set to play more of a part with speeds of 10-15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Green is viewed as narrow favourite at 14/5 but will have a tough weekend trying to hold off the chasing pack. He led at this stage last week at the International Series Singapore with 65-65 and could only finish 72-71 to lose by one. He has a much more accomplished chasers this week and will need a much better performance. The wind picking up may work in his favour though, he is usually a solid player in the breeze.
Pieters would probably be preferred at this stage despite the three shot deficit. He missed his fair share of chances today and if the putter gets hot again like Thursday he could end the day leading. Odds of 3/1 look short though now he has lost his lead and trailing by three.
Richard Mansell is the only other player at single figure odds and did well to save himself from a double bogey on the last. It is perhaps a sign of what could come should he have a chance to win though and we're happy to swerve at 11/2.
Where is the value?
There is one price we like as an each way play in the outright market.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Pep Angles 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Pep was well in control of his ball today, hitting 17/18 greens and has ranked inside the top 25 for driving distance both days. He was 25th in his last start so clearly finding form and was 2nd last year at the Mallorca Open where birdies were the order of the day. He has the ability to surprise the favourites here and looks a shade of value at 66/1.
18 August 2022, 9.20pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| De Jager |
-8 |
| Pieters |
-7 |
| Veerman |
-6 |
| Pulkannen |
-6 |
| Schneider |
-6 |
| Gumberg |
-6 |
| Eight Players Tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
The course didn't have much defence today as 27 players shot 68 or better. Louis De Jager birdied the last to steal the lead off Thomas Pieters
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I’ve been hitting the ball well, but I’ve gone back to old things, old tendencies that I keep falling back to. I worked a bit on those at the start of the week and I hit the ball really well today." Louis De Jager
"I made some putts that me and my playing partners thought were going to miss today, the greens were getting very bumpy near the end. I think I got a bit of luck, put some good strokes on it. It was tough putting. All the lines off the tee – I’ve played well here in the past – but they just suit me." Thomas Pieters
Round 2 Weather
Chance of showers before 8 AM, then partly sunny with PM scattered showers and storms. Wind 5-10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Pieters is as short as 11/4 now and it actually looks quite a fair price given he started this week around 7/1. If he continues to drive the ball as he did today he will set up countless chances and he showed no sign of rust at all today after his four week break. We have to expect him to set the clubhouse target tomorrow morning.
Defending champion Johannes Veerman is most likely to challenge him in the morning, whilst Richard Mansell has been trending for some time and due a big finish. Neither are tempting us at 12/1 with Pieters ahead of them though.
Where is the value?
We must approach with caution this evening given how Pieters played today. We would only advise small each way bets on big prices until we see how he plays tomorrow.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Jordan Zunic 250/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Jordan plays on the Australian Tour usually and has had a solid season with numerous top 20's and a 3rd place finish. Zunic finished runner up to Cam Smith at the 2017 Australian PGA, beating the likes of Sean Crocker, Marc Leishman and Harold Varner that week. He looked comfortable today in a bogey free round and looks slightly overpriced from an each way angle.
