Preview
Course Info
Course Type: Heathland
Designer: Harry Colt
Greens: Bentgrass
Par 5's: 4th, 12th, 17th & 18th
Hosted Since: 1984
Premium on: Tee to Green
Weather Forecast
Thurs - Light rain showers and light winds. Wind 3-6mph.
Fri - Light rain showers and light winds. Wind 4-7mph.
Sat - Light cloud and light winds. Wind 3-5mph.
Sun - Light cloud and light winds. Wind 3-5mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is the 2nd strongest DP World Tour field of the year.
A number of golfers contracted to the LIV Golf Tour will tee it up this week. Several players, including Rory McIlroy and Billy Horschel, have made their displeasure known at this fact.
Trends
Winning Score
Since the Championship moved to Autumn in 2019 we have had winning scores of -19, -20 and -19. Expect a similar score to prevail this week.
Course Form
Six of the last seven winners had posted a top 8 finish here prior to winning. Course form is very important.
Recent Form
Interestingly, three of the past four winners had missed the cut on their last start before teeing it up at the BMW PGA Championship. However, all four had at least one top 25 finish in their last two starts.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past five champions has been 28-15-60-33-13.
Nationality
Four of the past eight winners were British so they are favoured slightly but no significant emphasis on nationality.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past four tournaments. It's clear a solid long game is essential.
SG: Off The Tee
The last four champions have ranked 2-15-14-19. Strong drivers of the golf ball are preferred this week.
Driving Accuracy
The last four champions have ranked 12-10-24-9. Driving accuracy is essential this week.
Driving Distance
The last four champions have ranked 75-52-50-15. You don't need to be the longest this week.
SG: Approach
The last four champions have ranked 1-24-11-14.
SG: Around The Green
The last four champions have ranked 74-2-13-2.
SG: Tee to Green
The last four champions have ranked 1-1-13-2. You need to be firing with all parts of your game to succeed at Wentworth.
SG: Putting
The last four champions have ranked 73-16-2-55.
In Play
Tough Holes
the 1st and 3rd holes played as the hardest holes in 2021. Keep this in mind if you are betting in-play.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (4th, 12th, 17th and 18th) play well under par and were the easiest on the course in 2021. The 4th and 12th averaged 0.3 strokes easier than the 17th and 18th.
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner in the last five years has been inside the top 30 after the opening round. Indeed, three of those five winners were inside the top 5 after the opening round. Onlyone winner in the last five years has been outside the top 5 at halfway (Alex Noren - 2017). Noren is also the only player to have come from outside the top three after 54 holes.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Dean Burmester 66/1
Secured his card for the PGA Tour next year with some excellent performances the past few weeks. Does retain his form and has a decent Wentworth record.
Kurt Kitayama 110/1
Strong season which includes three top 20 finishes in last five starts. Also has a 14th place finish at Wentworth in his locker. One to watch in-play.
Marcus Kinhult 150/1
Marcus ticks the course form box this week with a 10th place and 12th place finish at this event within the last four years. He's on a fine run of form at the moment, placing inside the top 25 in three of his last five starts, including a 3rd place finish at the Cazoo Classic. His stats last time out in Switzerland were encouraging, ranking 13th SG: Tee to Green. He would have been included in our bets had the early 200/1 remained.
Matti Schmid 150/1
Like Dean Burmester, secured his PGA Tour card on the back of some excellent recent performances. Three top 10 finishes in his last six starts but a Wentworth debutant and likely needs the run this week.
In-play
BMW PGA Championship In-Play Blog
10 September 2022, 7pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hovland |
-12 |
| Kjeldsen |
-12 |
| Cabrera Bello |
-11 |
| Detry |
-11 |
| McIlroy |
-11 |
| Molinari |
-10 |
| Jordan |
-10 |
| Lowry |
-10 |
| Otaegui |
-10 |
| Gooch |
-10 |
Round 1 Summary
Perfect scoring conditions saw players go low and we're now set up for a fantastic finish tomorrow. Min Woo Lee equalled the course record of 62 but it won't be counted in the record books given players played lift, clean and place.
Round 3 Weather
Very similar to round two, dry with minimal wind (no more than 5mph).
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is 11/4 favourite, having gone bogey free in round two and moved into a share of 3rd place. If you watched our preview show, Fore The Win, you'll have heard us discussing his motivation this week to outperform the LIV golfers. That opinion remains and he's never more dangerous than with a point to prove. He's the man who's most likely to lift the trophy but we're in no rush to jump in with so many players capable of posting a low score.
Viktor Hovland is just behind the Northern Irishman in the betting at 3/1. Hovland was poor when last in contention at The Open but that was his first experience of contending for a Major and he's normally a more reliable performer. He defeated Rory McIlroy in Dubai in win the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year and shouldn't be discounted.
Shane Lowry is available at 10/1 in the betting. Lowry is yet to drop a shot this week, the only player in the top 15 who is blemish free, and he'll certainly go close.
DP World Tour supremo, Keith Pelley, will be desperately hoping the visitor from LIV Golf, Talor Gooch (14/1), doesn't lift the trophy. The American will certainly find himself under additional scrutiny should he take the lead at any point tomorrow and that's enough to put us off him.
Where is the value?
With 15 players within three strokes of the lead, the outright market is all to play for. Ideal scoring conditions will yield plenty of birdie opportunities and it wouldn't be a surprise to see someone come from well off the pace, just as Alex Noren did in 2017. The Swede was in 21st position after 54 holes that year.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Francesco Molinari 25/1 @ Coral (1/5 1-4)
Molinari won this event in 2018 and can count five other top 10 finishes amongst his resume at Wentworth. He ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green this week and although he lacks recent contention experience, he shouldn't be fazed going up against Rory McIlroy or Viktor Hovland. He held off McIlroy to win this title in 2018 and he's capable of repeating that feat again tomorrow.
.
9 September 2022, 5pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hovland |
-8 |
| Fleetwood |
-8 |
| Sullivan |
-8 |
| Jordan |
-7 |
| Four Players Tied |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
Round one took a dramatic twist when play was suspended late on Thursday afternoon when news broke of the death of Queen Elizabeth II. Play was suspended for the day on Friday before the decision was taken to resume on Saturday for a 54 hole event.
Round 2 Weather
Better conditions with no rain forecast and max winds of 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
It is hard to imagine Viktor Hovland or Tommy Fleetwood not being in contention on Sunday now and they have to respected. Shane Lowry loves Wentworth and should also progress nicely, while Rory McIlroy has a mountain to climb now, five back with 36 holes to play.
Where is the value?
With the tournament reduced to 54 holes, the tournament has a different complexion to it and as we've seen on the LIV Tour recently, shocks are far more common with fewer rounds. For that reason we will chance a couple of longshots.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Marcus Armitage 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
The Bullet is only two shots off the leaders and has a nice early tee time tomorrow to make his move. No one in the field struck their irons better than Marcus yesterday and he also ranks 3rd tee to green. He is one of the few in the field that has already won a reduced 54 hole event on tour - at the Porsche European Open last year with a final round 65. The memory may serve him well this weekend to hang tough with the big boys.
- 0.5pts Each Way Guido Migliozzi 200/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Guido is four back of the leaders but has been showing hints of a return to form for weeks now with three top 40's in a row. He has a habit of producing his best golf at the big events recently - 14th at the U.S Open this year and he had a run of 2-2-4 this time last year including the British Masters. He has the ability and lack of fear factor to take this field on if he plays to his potential this weekend.
