Event Info
Starts - 8th October 2020
Course - Wentworth G.C, England
Par - 72 (35-37)
Length – 7,267 yards
Defending Champion- Danny Willett
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +1pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
MC Sam Horsfield - 45/1
2nd Victor Perez - 66/1
T32nd Danny Willett - 70/1
T27th Garrick Higgo - 110/1
MC Dean Burmester - 125/1
MC Nicolas Colsaerts - 150/1
In-Play Bets: +1pts
8 October 2020 ( +6 Points)
1pt Each Way Victor Perez (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - 50/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Each Way Danny Willett (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 150/1 @ 888 Sport
0.5pts Each Way Thorbjorn Olesen (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 250/1 @ Betfred
10 October 2020 ( -3 Points)
3pts Robert McIntyre to beat Lee Westwood - 5/4@ Boylesports
11 October 2020 ( -2 Points)
2pts Win Only Tommy Fleetwood - 8/1 @ Betway
Preview
Course Info
Type of Course - Heathland
Course Designer - Harry Colt
Greens - Bentgrass
Par 5's - 4th, 12th, 17th and 18th.
Hosted Since -1984
Premium on - Approach play.
Weather Forecast
Thurs - Light rain showers with reasonable breeze. Wind 11-13mph.
Fri -Light rain and moderate breeze. Wind 9-11mph.
Sat - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind 9-11mph.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind 9-10mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
A Rolex series event, this is the strongest European Tour field since lockdown. Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The course is likely to play slightly longer this year due to the event being pushed back into October.
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Trends
Winning score
We saw -20 last year as the course moved to September for the first time. In 2018 it was -17 but in earlier years scoring was considerably higher.
Course form
Five of the last six winners had posted a top 8 finish here prior to winning. Course form is very important.
Incoming form
Both Danny Willett and Francesco Molinari had missed their previous cut before winning here. Ben An and Alex Noren had posted a top 15 finish in the event previously.
Nationality
Three of the past six winners were British so they are favoured slightly.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past two tournaments. It's clear a solid long game is in order and one of scrambling or putting is required.
SG: Off The Tee
The last two champions have ranked inside the top 20.
SG: Approach
Both Willett and Molinari were in the top 15 in this category.
SG: Around The Greens
Molinari was 2nd in 2018 but Willett ranked 73rd last year.
SG: Putting
Willett was 2nd last year but Molinari was 55th in 2018
In Play
Tough Holes
Par 4 3rd was the hardest hole in 2019. The 9th was 2nd hardest. The 1st and the 15th are other notable difficult holes.
Birdie Holes
Three of the par 5s (12th, 17th and 4th) play well under par and were the easiest holes on the course in 2019. Those of you who remember the 18th as a potential eagle opportunity will be saddened to know it averaged almost level par last year (4.97).
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner in the past six years has shot level par or better in the opening round. Only three of the past six winners have broken 70 in the opening round. You can play catch up. It's also a mixed bag for leaders, as only three of the last six 3rd round leaders have converted.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Sam Horsfield - 45/1 @ Bet365
Sam missed the cut last week but fired a second round 66 to give him momentum. Two solid efforts of 15th and 31st the past two years have given him the necessary experience to contend on the Burma Road. He's already won twice in the UK this year and he'll be hungry to take this next step.
Victor Perez - 66/1 @ 888Sport
Victor is a course debutant but odds of 66/1 are enough to warrant a loose eye on him. He played nicely last week en-route to a 14th place, having driven the ball particularly well. He won in the UK around this time last year and is a player on the up.
Danny Willett - 70/1 @ 888Sport
Jordan Smith almost got the nod instead of Danny but we feel the 70s on offer is too tempting not to include him. He's defending champion but in the midst of a terrible run of form having missed his last five cuts. A second round 69 last week may have given him some belief and returning to a course he clearly enjoys may spur him on. It's a bit speculative but he won last year having missed the cut in his previous start so there is hope he can do the same again.
Garrick Higgo - 110/1 @ Skybet
Garrick is another course debutant but we can't leave him out based on the quality of his recent play. A young South African finished 3rd on his debut last year and there is nothing to suggest he can't emulate Christiaan Bezuidenhout's achievement. His recent ball striking has been top quality and his win in Portugal is still fresh in the memory.
Dean Burmester - 125/1 @ 888Sport
Dean gets our attention courtesy of his course record at Wentworth. Two top 12 finishes in the past three years are interesting, but his recent play has also been sufficiently promising. He missed the cut last week on the number (this may prove to be a good thing given the battering the players took over the weekend) but prior to that he did well in Ireland before a poor final round.
Nicolas Colsaerts - 150/1 @ 888Sport
Nico ticks the previous course form box having finished 3rd here in 2017. He's been driving the ball really well the past two weeks and his iron play also improved last week. He likes this time of year having won last October in France. At these odds he's being written off to easily.
