Preview
Course Info
Designer: Dave Thomas
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2020 (Different event)
Fairways: Average
Par 5's: 3rd, 15th & 17th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This course was not used for this tournament in 2020 but it was the venue for the 2020 ISPS Handa UK Championship.
The Brabazon course has twelve par 4s.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Light cloud with a max wind of 8mph.
Friday
Light cloud with a max wind of 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 7mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals with a max wind of 7mph.
Trends
Winning score
When the British Masters was held at The Belfry between 2006-2008 the winning scores were -11, -15 and -12. Rasmus Hojgaard won the ISPS Handa UK Championship in 2020 with a score of -14 and Richard Bland won this event last year on -14. We can expect a winning score of -11 to -15.
Winning Profile
The world rankings of the three British Masters winners (2006-2008) were 194-48-157. Hojgaard was 94th when he lifted the trophy at the ISPS Handa UK Championship and Bland was 218th before his win last year.
Correlating Courses
There's a clear course correlation with Loch Lomond Golf Club, host of the Scottish Open until 2010. Johan Edfors and Lee Westwood won here in 2006 and 2007 and both are course winners at Loch Lomond. Even the 2008 winner, Gonzalo Fernandez Castano, recorded a 2nd place at Loch Lomond.
For a more recent correlation, the Portugal Masters offers a number of similarities. Westwood is a winner at the Dom Pedro Victoria golf course, Fernandez-Castano has a runner up finish there and Edfors has a solid enough record there too. It's also notable the 2020 runner up, Justin Walters, has an excellent record at the Portugal Masters.
Richard Bland was 8th at the Portugal Masters last season, further confirmation we should keep Portugal Masters results in mind.
Course form
Most players did not play the British Masters between 2006-2008 but 2021 winner, Richard Bland, was 19th at this venue in 2020. None of the 2021 top 5 featured on the leaderboard in 2020.
Recent form
Bland had finished 27th in his previous start and Hojgaard had finished 3rd the week before he triumphed. Of the players who won between 2006-2008, Westwood finished 6th the week before, Fernandez Castano 25th and Edfors 45th. Recent form does appear to be important.
Stats Analysis
SG: Approach
Bland ranked 3rd last year whilst runner up Migliozzi was 10th. Hojgaard ranked 7th in 2020. Indeed, three of the first four last year ranked inside the top seven for SG: Approach. The winners of the last three British Masters (2006-2008) were all accurate iron players too. We should favour players with good Strokes Gained: Approach stats.
SG: Off The Tee
Bland ranked 31st, notably 1st for Driving Accuracy, whilst Migliozzi was 32nd. In 2020, none of the top four ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Off The Tee. They ranked 12-24-45-38 in this category.
SG: Around The Green
It was a similar story around the greens as no player in the top four ranked inside the top 40 in 2020. Bland ranked 61st in 2021 but did rank 1st for Scrambling. Migliozzi was 33rd and 3rd for scrambling.
SG: Putting
Bland ranked 87th, losing strokes on the greens! Migliozzi was 56th. The top four last in 2020 ranked 2-23-6-11 so a good putting week certainly helps.
In Play
Third round leaders have a terrible record in recent times with every 3rd round leader beaten between 2006-2008 and then again in 2020 and last year. Edfors won from 4 back, Westwood won from 2 back and Fernandez-Castano came from 3 back between 2006-2008. In 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard came from five back and Bland came from 3 back last year. Opposing the 3rd round leader is a solid strategy.
The last five course champions opened with under par first rounds. Bland and Migliozzi shared 3rd place after round one last year before dropping back slightly.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Sam Horsfield 28/1
Looked to be playing well last time out at the Zurich Classic and a top 25 finish here last year. Others marginally preferred.
Nicolai Hojgaard 33/1
You could potentially make a case for either Hojgaard this week but Nicolai played solidly last week without ever threatening. His performance here in 2020 was a worry though.
Tom Lewis 125/1
We highlighted in the preview that the Portugal Masters may be a correlating event. Lewis has won that event twice and was 10th only two starts ago. We were happy to see how he starts this week.
In-play
Betfred British Masters In-Play Blog
7 May 2022, 9:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Olesen |
-11 |
| Long |
-8 |
| Armitage |
-8 |
| R Hojgaard |
-7 |
| Ramsay |
-7 |
| Zanotti |
-7 |
| Hanna |
-7 |
| Walters |
-7 |
An eagle-birdie finish has given Thorbjorn Olesen a three shot lead and the chance to win on the DP World Tour for the first time since 2018.
Olesen has had his troubles off the course the past few years and this is an excellent opportunity to get his career back on track.
The Dane is now a best price of 13/10. His finish was undoubtedly impressive but his wayward driving remains a concern. He hit only 26% of fairways in round 3 and he'll likely need to perform better off the tee over the final 18 holes.
In the last five events played at The Belfry, the leader has been unable to convert. Given Olesen's wayward driving and the history books suggesting a winner may come from off the pace, we're happy to swerve the leader.
Marcus Armitage holed a long par putt on the last hole to get into the clubhouse at eight under par. He's second favourite at 6/1 and can't be discounted. A winner last year at the Porsche European Open, he'd love to win in front of home fans. Odds of 6/1 seem a little short though.
Hurly Long did well to post a 73 after a poor start to his round. He birdied three of his last six holes and the German will look to take that momentum into round 4. Odds of 10/1 were tempting.
Of the group at seven under par, a quick mention for Justin Walters. Walters was our 150/1 pre-event selection and we were disappointed to see him bogey the last hole. The South African missed numerous putts within 12ft and it felt like a good score was there for the taking. He leads the field in SG: Approach this week.
Conditions for the final round will be cloudy with the wind not expected to exceed 6mph.
Finally, we'll be at the event tomorrow, if Walters wins, the pints are on us!
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Rasmus Hojgaard WIN ONLY 10/1 @ Bet365
Hojgaard finds himself four shots back going into the final round but that shouldn't phase him considering he won from five shots back in 2020. His approach play has been excellent this week, ranking 2nd SG: Approach. His driving is a slight concern and we're keeping stakes lower as a result. A wayward tee shot on the 8th hole cost him a double bogey in round 3 but should he drive the ball like he did in round 1, he'll fancy his chances of catching his compatriot.
7 May 2022, 9:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Long |
-9 |
| Olesen |
-8 |
| Kinhult |
-8 |
| Ramsay |
-8 |
| R Hojgaard |
-7 |
| Four players tied |
-6 |
Five birdies in six holes propelled Hurly Long into the lead at The Belfry and he now takes a one shot lead into the weekend.
The German is seeking to win for the first time on the DP World Tour, having previously won on the Challenge Tour in 2020. He's 13/2 3rd favourite in the betting but we aren't too keen to back him at those odds. As we noted in the preview, it doesn't always pay to lead at this course.
Rasmsus Hojgaard is the 6/1 favourite and it's an understandable price given he's a winner at this venue (2020) and he ranks 2nd so far this week for SG: Approach.
Hojgaard's fellow Dane, Thorbjorn Olesen, is the joint favourite at 6/1 but we're less keen to him given his inaccuracy off the tee so far. Olesen has hit less than 50% of fairways so far and he'll need to improve over the weekend.
We have Justin Walters and Ashun Wu in the mix from our pre-event bets and we're hopeful they can push on today. Walters leads he field for SG: Approach so he's certainly in with a chance if he can limit the mistakes he's made so far (he has made seven bogeys).
In terms of today's bets, we considered Sebastian Soderberg to beat Ryan Fox in a two ball bet. The Swede has played really nicely so far this week and the 7/4 looks too big. Robert MacIntyre to beat Adrian Otaegui was the other consideration at 19/20 given the Scot has momentum after yesterday's 67. He's a dangerous player once he gets going and just under even money is fair.
Conditions for the 3rd round will be ideal, with warm conditions and max 8mph winds forecast.
Round 3 Bet
- 1.5pts Danny Willett WIN ONLY 11/1 @ Coral/Ladbrokes
Danny is the tournament host this week and it looked like he was struggling under the weight of hosting after an opening round of 73. However, he bounced back in emphatic fashion yesterday, firing a 2nd round 65. He was interviewed after his round and he indicated he's been heavily involved with the course setup this week and appeared to be really keen to put on a strong showing over the weekend. He's a multiple winner on the DP World Tour and won as recently as October last year at the Alfred Dunhill Links. He ranks 8th SG: Approach so far this week and has also been marginally gaining strokes off the tee. He's almost double the price of the market favourites and we're keen to get him onside.
5 May 2022, 9:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fox |
-6 |
| Olesen |
-6 |
| Wu |
-5 |
| Long |
-5 |
| Ramsay |
-5 |
| Four players tied |
-4 |
Ryan Fox drained a long putt at the last to join Thorbjorn Olesen at the top of the leaderboard after round 1 of the Betfred British Masters.
The Kiwi is now 6/1 favourite to go on and win for the 2nd time this season, having won the Ras al Khaimah Classic earlier this year. Fox has been in excellent form of late, recording top 15 finishes in the past two events in Spain. He's likely to continue his fine play tomorrow but 6/1 isn't a price we're interested in backing.
Olesen (/9/1) is the only other player below 10/1 in the betting. The Dane noted he played "really well" in his post round interview and stated that he's looking to notch a win on Tour this year after some hard work with his coach. He's certainly a threat but others are preferred.
It's been a good start for our pre-event bets. Ashun Wu leads the way but we have four selections inside the top 20 and we're hopeful they make further progress up the leaderboard tomorrow.
In terms of bets we're looking to place tomorrow, we considered Justin Walters and Brandon Stone to be 2nd round leader at 22/1 and 25/1 respectively. However, we wanted slightly more on each to tempt us in. If you can find a bookmaker offering Brandon Stone at 40/1+ in the outright market that would be an interesting proposition too (at the time of writing one bookmaker is offering 100/1 but it appears to be an error).
Weather for the 2nd round will be dry with the wind set to pick up to around 10mph in the afternoon. Rain is forecast late afternoon so those teeing off towards the end of the day may have to play in the rain.
Round 2 Bets
- 2.5pts Julien Brun to beat Rafa Cabrera Bello (2nd round mythical 2 ball) 11/10 @ BetVictor
Julien won this match by three shots yesterday and we were surprised to see him available at 11/10 again today. A two time winner on the Challenge tour last year, he is an extremely consistent performer. He's only missed four cuts across this season and the past two seasons and he can generally be relied upon to turn in a solid performance. He ranked 9th Greens in Regulation for round 1, compared to Cabrera Bello's 102nd. Rafa has missed his last two cuts and missed the cut in his only start at The Belfry in 2007.
