Preview

Course Info

Close House Golf Club hosts the British Masters for the second time since the tournament was resurrected in 2015. It is a 360 acre private property featuring two courses with the Championship Lee Westwood Colt Course being used, as it was in 2017. The course was designed by architect Scott MacPherson and has only three par 5s, the 7th, 10th and 17th. They are all reachable in two shots. There are also two driveable par 4s on the course.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

 

This is the first significant tournament to be played since the European Tour was suspended in March.

 

Whilst our watchlist below provides a summary of players who play well after a break, three months is unprecedented and players will have been able to practice to varying degrees depending upon where they live.

 

Exercise caution at the outset and keep a watching brief in play.

Trends

The British Masters has been dominated in recent years by British, Irish and Swedish golfers. In the last four editions 29 golfers have finished tied 7th or better - and 24 of these hailed from Britain, Ireland and Sweden. All 5 winners since 2015 have been English, Irish or Swedish. Before we all rush to back golfers from those countries, one note of caution. This years tournament is now in the warmer summer month of July rather than the traditional Autumn slot it has previously occupied (the 2019 British Masters was held in May, however). Still, something to consider.

With only one tournament having been played at Close House in recent years we have no significant course trends. In 2017 the winning total was -20, so low scoring is essential here. A hot putter was the key to Paul Dunne's success. 

Stats Analysis

In 2017, five of the top seven were in the top 20 for strokes gained putting. All seven were in the top 30 for this category. The course played soft and there were plenty of birdie chances available. It's likely it will play firmer this time.

Driving stats were not too important in 2017 with only Rory McIlroy and Robert Karlsson of the players in the top 7 featuring in the top 35 for strokes gained off the tee. Approach play was not all that significant here either, with only three of the top seven featuring in the top 30 for strokes gained approach.

We can therefore conclude that we are looking for a player who has his 'eye in' and can go low with the putter.

In Play

Paul Dunne shot a blistering 61 on the final day after starting one shot behind third round leader Robert Karlsson. Given what we know about the course, and the low scoring nature of the event, we should expect those coming from off the pace with a hot putter to be favoured rather than final round leaders.

Six To Watch

Lee Westwood - 10/1 @ 888 Sport
Lee is tournament host this week and is attached to Close House GC.  He has been practicing here prior to the event and nobody in the field will know the course as well as him.  He opened up with 66-65 in 2017 and has said he was worn out by hosting commitments at the weekend. 
With no crowds, less media and sponsor commitments he should be a man full of energy this year.  He has also been extremely active over lockdown improving his fitness and this bodes well.  Sometimes the obvious bets are the best ones and in this case the 10/1 on offer is a more than fair price for a former world number one who has home advantage.

Brandon Stone - 50/1@ Bet365
Before lockdown we would have seen Brando Stone going off at a much shorter price than this given the quality of field.  The price maybe reflects the fact that it is his first tournament back so there is an element of doubt. We are happy to take the gamble though, as he is the type who can go extremely low on 'gettable' golf courses. If it turns into a putting contest he should flourish. 
He finished 31st here in 2017 which was on the back of a long run of missed cuts so appears to like the venue.  Guido Migliozzi, a youngster of similar talent who could also go well, was considered but he tends to start slowly after a break. 

Julian Suri - 80/1@ Bet365
As per our player profile, Julian has been really hampered by injuries in recent times.  That said, he's a player who has previously been on the fringes of the top 50 in the world and is determined to get himself back into the big tournaments.  Encouragingly, he's a player who has shown he can go well after a long break, having recorded finishes of 20-4-2-19 immediately after a 20 weeks away due to injury in 2019.  He didn't play here in 2017 but did record a top 5 finish at the 2018 British Masters, showing his liking for golf in the UK. 
Several weeks ago Suri won a two round APGA tournament which shows us he's at least ready to compete.

Wil Besseling - 110/1@ Bet365
Although we have missed the early 125's, Will is still a fair price at 110/1, especially since we know he is in good shape since the return, finishing 3rd at the Austrian Open two weeks ago. What stood out was his post round interview where he said “Coming back from four months off, it is really nice to play for a win and I am very pleased where my game is at. Hit a few good shots on the front nine to give myself a lot of opportunities, which I made to get me in contention, and I managed to stay bogey-free which is very pleasing, especially on a Sunday playing for the win." He was also close in December's Alfred Dunhill Championship and appears to have the temperament to win very soon. 
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Rikard Karlberg - 110/1  @ Bet365
As mentioned in our event preview, Swedish players have a particularly strong record at the British Masters and we think Rikard could play a part at big odds. We saw gradual improvement with him last week finishing 24th after a 34th place the week before at the Austrian Open.
His last victory came at the 2015 Italian Open, a tight fiddly course similar to Close House. He did play the event held here in 2017 where he missed the cut, but he shot an opening round 64 so has shown he can go low here. Has been hinting at a return to the winners' enclosure for a year now and it could well be here in a weaker field. 

Andrea Pavan - 140/1  @ Bet365
Andrea is a quality performer and odds of 140/1 for a player who has won in each of the last two European Tour seasons are to be snapped up.  As per our player profile he is a player who enjoys low scoring conditions and iron play is a particular strength of his game so he should enjoy this week. 
He's got a sound record in the UK, having recorded top 5 finishes at the Scottish Open and Alfred Dunhill Championship (admittedly both links events).  He enjoys a number of similar top finishes as 2017 winner Paul Dunne, both having recorded top 3s at the Trophy Hassan II and both having recorded top 7a at the Alfred Dunhill Links. 
Finally, Andrea has been based in Texas during the pandemic and has remained competitive.  He played in the Maridoe event which featured PGA Tour pros and has been attempting Monday qualifying for PGA Tour events.  He was unlucky to miss out in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic Monday qualifier recently so his game should be in reasonable shape.

In-play

 In-Play Blog

25th July 2020

-16 Paratore
-15 Harding
-14 Hojgaard
-13 Whitnell
-12 Chesters
-12 Horsfield
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With the sun finally out, the third round of the Betfred British Masters saw some low scoring.  Sam Horsfield shot a morning 61, Jack Senior shot a 63 and there were multiple rounds in the mid 60s.  

We tipped Hojgaard yesterday at 10/1 and he is still very much in the mix going into the final round.  He has history of overcoming Paratore, having edged him out in the playoff to win in Mauritius last year and we are happy to see how it plays out in the outright market.    

With conditions expected to be wet and windy today, Hojgaard's biggest threat could be Justin Harding.  The experienced South African has the patience to grind it out today and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win but odds of 5/2 don't make much appeal.

2pts Southgate to beat Korhonen - 17/10 @ Betfair Sportsbook
2pts Storm to beat Veerman - 6/4 @ Betfair Sportsbook
2pts Dunne to beat Pavan - 11/10 @ Betfair Sportsbook

With conditions expected to be windy with showers today for the final round of the Betfred British Masters we have gone for three proven bad weather players to win their two balls. 

Matt Southgate has posted three rounds of 70 this week and conditions today will suit him down to the ground.  Mikko Korhonen is competent too but Southgate's price of 17/10 is far too big to pass up given the conditions. 

​Graeme Storm has improved his score each day and the man from Hartlepool should be far more used to the conditions today than his young American playing partner.

Paul Dunne won here in 2017, performing well in the rain.  At odds against, he's value today to see off Andrea Pavan who has made four bogeys in each of the last two days.  

24th July 2020

1.5pts Calum Hill- 16/1 @ Betway
1.5pts Rasmus Hojgaard- 10/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
2pts Clement Sordet to beat Garrick Porteous - 5/6 @ Skybet

Calum is two shots behind leader Renato Paratore after 36 holes and represents good value at 16/1 to go on and take his maiden European Tour title from here. Calum won twice on the Challenge Tour last year and once in 2018 so he knows how to close when he gets a sniff. Whether he can hold his nerve at a higher grade remains to be seen but there is no evidence yet to suggest he won't and we are happy to support proven winners. We have no stats to go on this week but from the limited TV coverage, Calum looks to be swinging well and can be in the mix on Sunday.

For the same reason we have put up Rasmus Hojgaard because of the way he closed The Mauritius Open at the end of 2019. The young Dane was outstanding under pressure and looks set to be a future superstar of the European Tour. Guido Migliozzi showed last year's young guns aren't scared to win multiple times and we could quite easily see the same thing happen here. Like Calum, Rasmus also sits two shots behind Paratore and looks poised to make a move today.

Clement is nearly 400 places ahead of Garrick in the world rankings and we think he is overpriced here. The Frenchman improved nicely on his opening round with a 67 yesterday whereas Garrick could only manage a 71 following a fast start. Clement has had a successful 2020 so far with four top 30's in his six starts and seems to have continued this after the lockdown. On the flip side, this is the first cut Garrick has made so he will be under a lot of pressure to make the most of it. Snap up the 5/6 for this 12:40pm tee time.