Event Info
Starts: 15th April 2021
Course: Diamond CC, Austria
Par: 72
Length: 7,458 yards
2020 Champion: Marc Warren
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +9.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: +1.5pts
0.75pts Each Way Darius Van Driel 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts Each Way Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts Each Way Aaron Cockerill 125/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts Each Way Marcel Schneider 125/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
0.25pts Each Way Adrien Saddier 300/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
1pt Adrien Saddier Top 20 Finish 12/1 @ William Hill
1.5pts Dale Whitnell Top 20 Finish 6/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power
1pt Oliver Farr Top 20 Finish 8/1 @ Boylesports
In-Play Bets: +8pts
16 April 2021 (-3pts)
1pt EW Richard Mansell (1/5 1-6) - 66/1 @ Paddy Power
0.5pts EW Ewan Ferguson (1/5 1-5) - 300/1 @ Bet365
17 April 2021 (-3pts)
1pt EW SSP Chawrasia(1/4 1-4) - 40/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW Austin Bautista (1/5 1-4) - 300/1 @ Bet365
18 April 2021 (+14pts)
2pts Win Only John Catlin - 7/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Jeremy Pern
Type of Course: Parkland, Tree Lined.
Used Since: 2010
Fairways: Flat and Exposed.
Rough: N/A.
Greens: Smaller than average, usually run around 11.5 on stimp.
Water Hazards: On half of the holes. Par 3's 2nd and 6th are island greens.
Par 5's: 1st, 4th, 15th, and 16th.
Premium on: Tee to Green.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Diamond CC was the host of the Lyoness Open from 2010-2017 and latterly the Shot Clock Masters in 2018. It most recently hosted the first event back after the Covid-19 break in 2020, which was a co-sanctioned event with the Challenge Tour.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
We should expect cold temperatures this week ranging from 4 degrees in the morning to 12 degrees in the afternoons. Showers and winds should play their part too.
Thursday
Light rain showers and moderate breeze. Winds of 9-13mph,
Friday
Light Cloud and a moderate breeze. Winds of 10-12mph.
Saturday
Light Cloud and a gentle breeze. Winds of 7-9mph.
Sunday
Drizzle and a gentle breeze. Winds of 7-9mph.
Trends
Winning score
Marc Warren won with a score of 13 under par last year, meaning winning scores over the last 7 tournaments held here have ranged from -12 to -17. Diamond CC is a tougher test than many other courses on tour.
Winning Profile
Warren was ranked 1118th in the world before his win and this event was the start of his comeback. It must be said though that the field strength was poor and the previous four winners were players of calibre at the time - Mikko Korhonen, Dylan Frittelli, Ashun Wu and Chris Wood. In general its not been a course that is favourable to first time winners.
Correlating Courses
Previous winners Chris Wood and Ashun Wu were 1st and 2nd at the KLM Open, hosted at 'The Dutch' course between 2016 and 2018. Wu and Korhonen have both won the China Open, albeit at different courses. Warren had a previous record of playing well in cold/wet conditions so may be worth looking at UK form in the Autumn.
Course form
You don't appear to need course form to succeed here although it is a skewed sample with no event in 2019 and a poor strength field in 2020. Ashun Wu won here as a debutant in 2016 and four of the top 10 last year were also debutants. Preferred but not essential.
Recent form
There was no recent form to go by last year due to Covid-19. Korhonen had missed his previous cut in 2018, Frittelli won in 2017 on the back of two missed cuts. Recent form is not an essential stat this week.
Nationality
No nationality has dominated here in recent years.
Stats Analysis
There were no stats to go by last year so we will focus on the previous four years.
Driving Distance
None of these four winners ranked inside the top 30 for Driving Distance. Not a key stat.
Driving Accuracy
Three of the four winners ranked inside the top 20 for driving accuracy for the week. Driving Accuracy is important.
Greens In Regulation
The four winners ranked 4th, 19th, 10th and 6th for Greens in Regulation. We are looking for a fairways and greens type player. Hitting the small greens is essential.
Scrambling
2018 winner Korhonen was 1st for scrambling. Runner up Syme was 53rd and third place Walters was 2nd. Due to the difficulty level of the course a good short game is a massive advantage.
Putts Per GIR
None of the top 3 in 2018 were inside the top 10 for putting. We shouldn't put too much emphasis on putting here.
In Play
Tough Holes
The holes in the middle offer a harder test and if you are betting in-running be aware you may wish to lay.
Birdie Holes
The first 6 holes offer players a chance to make birdies and and the final holes also offer opportunities, particularly with back to back par 5s at15 and 16.
Fast or Slow Start
Third round leaders don't have a great record here, with only three players managing to convert a lead since 2010. Eventual winners have come from as far as six shots back and it's a course where a player can quickly make group up on the leaders. That said, Warren was a joint leader overnight before his win last year. Overall, opposing the final round leader is usually a fine strategy.
Closing stretch
Par 5's 15th and 16th offer birdie chances. The last two holes were ranked 6th and 8th toughest in 2020. From the 17th hole onwards it's a difficult finish.
In-play
Austrian Open In-Play Blog
17 April 11.25pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Canizares | -9 |
| Kaymer | -9 |
| Kieffer | -8 |
| Catlin | -7 |
| Four Players Tied | -6 |
Slightly easier conditions saw scoring improve and Martin Kaymer has drawn level with Alejandro Canizares at the top of the leaderboard.
Kaymer is now a general 6/4 to win for the first time since 2014 but that seems awfully short considering the difficulties he's had in recent months when under pressure. He had fantastic opportunities to win at both the Andalucia Masters and ISPS Handa UK Championship last summer but was far from convincing in either. He's not for us.
Canizares continues to lead the field in SG: Approach and is creating plenty of birdie opportunities. His third round contained two double bogeys and he'll need to eliminate those mistakes if he hopes to win. The last time he won was also 2014 and although a best price of 4/1 makes more appeal than Kaymer, it's still not overly tempting given his contention rust.
Max Kieffer finds himself next in the betting at 11/2 and he too is hard to support at the odds. Over 200 European Tour appearances have failed to yield a win and for all he's been getting closer in recent years, it's just not a price that makes much appeal to us.
The weather for the final round should be dry with temperatures reaching a maximum of 10 degrees.
Round 4 Bets
- 2pts Win Only John Catlin 7/1 @ Skybet
With doubts over the leader, we're happy to look a bit further down the leaderboard. John won twice last year and has shown he's capable of crossing the line if given an opportunity. He wasn't at his best today, with several disappointing iron shots. However, three closing birdies in his final seven holes have kept him within touching distance of the leaders and he'll take heart from the fact he's still very much in this despite not playing his best. We shouldn't forget he closed out the Irish Open with an impressive final round of 64. A low round tomorrow will likely see him lift the trophy.
16 April 11.45pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Canizares | -7 |
| Catlin | -6 |
| Kaymer | -6 |
| Walters | -5 |
| Four Players Tied | -4 |
Alejandro Canizares maintained his one shot lead going into the weekend as the weather in Austria continued to be bitterly cold.
Canizares hasn't won since winning the Trophee Hassan II in 2014. With that in mind, bookmakers have priced him as 7/1 third favourite to convert from here. Despite his lack of recent wins, it is worth mentioning that Canizares did win wire to wire for that win in Morocco. He's held the lead the opening two days and on the basis of his play so far, deserves to be out in front. He leads the field in SG: Approach over the first two rounds and is 2nd SG: Putting. It's certainly not a leaderboard packed with quality and with conditions making low scoring difficult, Canizares will likley stay in contention until Sunday.
The two players at six under par are likely to offer the biggest threat to the Spaniard. Martin Kaymer is the 3/1 favourite, with John Catlin chalked up at 9/2. Kaymer and Catlin battled it out for the Andalucia Masters last year and it would appear the two are going to compete agin for this trophy over the weekend. Catlin edged it in Spain when the pair last went up against each other and that win was one of two for Catlin last year. Catlin's other win came in Ireland, in conditions not dissimilar to this week, and that will see him in good stead for the rest of the week. Given the problems Kaymer has faced converting winning opportunities, Catlin would be our favoured bet out of the two.
Yesterday's 66/1 in-play pick, Richard Mansell, is one of the players tucked in at -4 and if it weren't for two sloppy tee shots that found the water, he'd be in the group at -6.
The weather is again expected to be cooler, with temperatures not expected to get above 9 degrees Celcius.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way S.S.P. Chawrasia 40/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
It's easy to forget S.S.P. has won four co-sanctioned European Tour events and his odds are slightly dismissive given that fact. Yes, those wins all came in more familiar surroundings but this leaderboard is fairly light on quality and although the circumstances are different, he won't be intimidated by those around him. Of the top eight, only the three players at the very top have tasted victory on the European Tour. Even if his wins were in Asia, Chawrasia has at least won before and given he's played some very solid golf over the opening two days, he's worth a bet at 40/1.
- 0.5pts Each Way Austin Bautista 125/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Austin is a name unfamiliar to most but a quick look at his Instagram is enough to see he's had some success on minor Tours in the past six months. Interestingly, one of those wins came in cold and wet conditions and it seems Austin copes well with playing in adverse conditions. With the weather set to remain cool over the weekend, he's an interesting each way play at 125/1.
15 April 8.25pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Canizares | -5 |
| Karlberg | -4 |
| Kruyswijk | -4 |
| Kaymer | -4 |
| Catlin | -4 |
| Four Players Tied | -4 |
As expected, cold weather made life extremely difficult for the field, with scoring averaging over 74 for the round. There isn’t much better news for the players tomorrow, with the morning wave set to start in temperatures of four degrees.
John Catlin summed up the conditions perfectly after his round:
"The front nine was very, very cold. I told my caddie, I'm going to keep my hands in my gloves and have you hold the yardage book out and do my work that way. That's abnormal for me but I found that I needed to do that to keep my hands warm."
Surprisingly, it was a Spaniard who adapted best to the conditions and he is one of those who will start in the coldest temperatures tomorrow morning.
He will be joined by Rikard Karlberg and in-form Jacques Kruyswijk, who carries on his good play from Kenya. Martin Kaymer and John Catlin, who both set the early pace, will go out in the afternoon.
Given the conditions and the demanding nature of the course, we are not keen to back anyone at short odds at this stage. Kaymer is 6/1 favourite, followed by Thomas Detry at 8/1 and Catlin at 11/1.
We will go for a couple of later starters who can get themselves into contention tomorrow.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Richard Mansell 66/1 @ Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Richard is three under and has an afternoon tee time. The Englishman drove the ball beautifully today, ranking 2nd off the tee, and he was also 8th for approach play. We highlighted a good tee to green game as vital to success here so we're keen to get him onside. Also in his favour is his 2nd place finish in Austria last year at the Euram Bank Open - which was also in poor conditions.
- 0.5pts Each Way Ewan Ferguson 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Ewan is another who performed very well tee to green, ranking 8th. He played his best golf of 2020 in the stretch of tournaments held in Scotland and Ireland with finishes of 14-30-16, so we know he enjoys golfing in cooler temperatures. Let's take a chance he can improve on those performances at juicy odds.
