Preview
Course Info
Type of Courses - Links
Old Course scoring average 2019 - 68.99
Carnoustie scoring average 2019 - 71.11
Kingsbarns scoring average 2019 - 69.53
Hosted Since -2001
Premium on - Links ability and ability to play in wind.
Weather Forecast
Showers expected all week along with a consistent wind should keep the scoring down a touch.
Thursday
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-10mph
Friday
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-11mph
Saturday
Light rain showers and a fresh breeze. Wind 14-18mph.
Sun
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 12-15mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There are 17 LIV players entered into the field this week.
The first three days are rotated around three courses - St Andrews Old Course, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The cut is made on Saturday evening with top 60 and ties progressing to Sunday.
The tournament is played with amateurs, each professional forming a team with one amateur. Rounds can therefore be slow and players must be patient.
Carnoustie usually plays harder than the other two, so beware of that if betting in-play.
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Trends
Winning score
We have had winning scores of -15 to -24 in the last 6 years. With the current weather forecast we should expect somewhere in the late teens.
Winning Profile
Danny Willett was world number 170 prior to his win last year. Victor Perez was a big outsider in 2019, ranking 183rd before his win. Lucas Bjerregard ranked 92nd and had won the Portugal Masters the year prior. Tyrrell Hatton was 29th and 54th prior to his wins in 2017 and 2016 but they were the first of his career. Six of the last eight winners had won on Tour before.
Course form
Danny Willett had 2nd and 5th place finishes at this event prior to winning. Victor Perez and Lucas Bjerregard had no previous big finishes at this event but Hatton won back to back and Thorbjorn Olesen had a previous 2nd place before his win in 2015. In general, links form is very important and certain players perform well consistently.
Course rotation
It's notable that none of the last eight winners started their week at Kingsbarns. Five of the last eight winners started at Carnoustie and three started at St Andrews.
Incoming form
Willett had missed three of his four cuts prior to his victory. Perez arrived on the back of two missed cuts in 2019. Bjerregard had hot form (20-2-6- in 2018, as did Hatton in 2017. However, Hatton was out of form for his win in 2016. We can conclude it is not necessary to come in hot but it helps.
Nationality
Two Danes and five Englishmen have won in the last eight years. Overall, British players perform well in home conditions.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past four tournaments.
SG: Off The Tee
The past four champions ranked 75-1-35-48 (most recent first). Driving was the key stat in 2019 (runner up, Matthew Southgate, was 6th in SG: Off The Tee) but hasn't been as important in other years.
SG: Approach
The past four champions ranked 11-3-10-16 (most recent first). Solid approach play generally leads to success.
SG: Around The Greens
The past four champions ranked 38-91-7-19 (most recent first). Not a key stat.
SG: Tee to Green
The past four champions ranked 11-1-1-8 (most recent first). Unsurprisingly, a solid tee to green game is required this week.
SG: Putting
The past four champions ranked 19-95-21-4 (most recent first). As always, it helps to putt well but you can win without a red hot putter here.
In Play
Tough Holes
Four of the six toughest holes in 2021 were at Carnoustie. The 18th, 17th, 2nd and 16th averaged 0.47, 0.42, 0.33 and 0.21 shots over par. On the Old Course, holes 17 and 13 played the toughest, averaging 0.5 and 0.3 strokes over par.
Birdie Holes (Host Course - St Andrews)
The par 5 5th hole at St Andrews was the easiest hole all week. The 12th and 14th at Carnoustie and 3rd at Kingsbarns all averaged over 0.5 strokes under par.
Fast or Slow Start
Due to the course rotation and changing weather conditions, catch up is very possible here. With that said, the last five winners have been in the top 12 after round one.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Matt Wallace 80/1
English players have thrived here in recent years and Wallace has finished 28th and 15th here in his last two attempts. Add in a 12th place finish at the Fortinet two weeks ago and he ticked a lot of boxes.
Thorbjorn Olesen 80/1
The key to finding a winner last week was identifying that Guido Migliozzi had been putting consistently well for weeks on end and then had an improvement in his approach play a week prior to the win. The exact same can be said of Olesen this week as his usually ever so reliable putter let him down in France but he led the tee to green stats. It also helps that Olesen is a past winner here, in addition to having a 2nd place too.
Lucas Bjerregaard 175/1
A past winner of this event, his price plummeted early on this week and he made much less appeal at less than 200/1. Long game has been trending for a few weeks though and wouldn't be a surprise to see him go well.
Oliver Wilson 200/1
Wilson seems rejuvenated following his victory in Denmark and is now on a run of four made cuts in a row. He is another past champion here, winning in 2014 when completely out of form. Now that his game has returned, he will have had his eye on this week for some time. Another who has been putting well for weeks
In-play
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship In-Play Blog
1 October 2022, 7:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Mansell |
-15 |
| Noren |
-11 |
| Gavins |
-11 |
| Fox |
-11 |
| Rozner |
-10 |
| Moller |
-10 |
| Shinkwin |
-9 |
Round 3 Summary
With the rain subsiding and the wind down to manageable levels, low scoring was once again the order of the day across the three courses. So much so that Thomas Pieters bettered his round two score by 19 (!) shots. Richard Mansell was once again impressive and is now odds on to win. Only one player (Jorge Campillo) bettered his score at Carnoustie and he deservedly takes a four shot lead into the final round.
Round 4 Weather
Sunny with the wind peaking around 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Richard Mansell is a best price 10/11. Four of the last five winners of this event have led after round three so history would suggest Mansell is a decent bet. However, the Englishman is without a win on the Challenge Tour or DP World Tour, his only success to date coming at the 2019 Cobra Puma Championship on the Euro Pro Tour.
Recent efforts haven't been altogether encouraging either. Mansell was in contention at the ISPS Handa World Invitational before putting his approach shot at the 18th into the water. He was also poor at the Czech Masters, where he went into the final round in 2nd place and shot the worst score of anyone in the top 40 to slip to 23rd.
Alex Noren is 2nd in the betting at 11/2 and he's the man we see as Mansell's biggest threat. The Swede played really nicely in round three (1st Greens in Regulation at St Andrews) and will return to the Old Course for round four. He'll need lower than the 69 he shot in round three though.
Ryan Fox is next in the betting at 7/1. He too carries a significant threat and it would be no surprise to see the Kiwi run Mansell close.
Where is the value?
We tipped Daniel Gavins yesterday at 50/1 and were we not already on him he'd be under consideration at 16/1. We mentioned his St Andrews record in yesterday's blog and he's a shade too big still in our opinion.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Win Only Antoine Rozner 16/1 @ Betfair
With doubts over Mansell's ability to close out his lead, we're looking for players who have the potential to fire a low final round and put in a challenge. Antoine Rozner ticks the boxes we are looking for nicely. Three of Rozner's four career wins have come from behind and he's a player who can go low when the putter behaves. He shot a 63 at St Andrews in round one and those positive memories can see him go low again in the final round. He's been knocking on the door of a win for the last few weeks, it could well be this week.
30 September 2022, 7:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Mansell |
-10 |
| Noren |
-8 |
| Rozner |
-7 |
| Moller |
-7 |
| Gavins |
-6 |
| MacIntyre |
-6 |
| Three Players Tied |
-5 |
Round 2 Summary
If the players enjoyed perfect conditions in round one, they had the complete opposite for day two. Heavy rain and 40mph winds made for an extremely testing day, with most players struggling to think of a time when they'd played in tougher conditions when interviewed. Richard Mansell fired a best of the day 68 at St Andrews to take a two stroke lead into the weekend.
Only eight players broke par in round two, five played Kingsbarns, two played Carnoustie and Mansell was the only player to shoot under par around the Old Course.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny intervals with a wind of 20mph+ (gusts expected to be higher).
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Alex Noren (4/1) has taken over favouritism after moving into 2nd place on the leaderboard. The Swede will play St Andrews over the next two days and has an excellent chance to win for the first time since his Open de France win in 2018.
Richard Mansell can be backed at a best price of 5/1 but he makes less appeal given he must navigate his way around Carnoustie in round three. Mansell has yet to impress when in contention and it's likely you will be able to back him at a bigger price tomorrow, should you so wish.
Robert MacIntyre (15/2) and Antoine Rozner (9/1) are the only other players priced up below 10/1. Both players have been playing some excellent golf of late and given neither plays Carnoustie in round three, both are expected to be in contention on Sunday afternoon.
Where is the value?
With further winds expected tomorrow the event is still wide open. The weather forecast suggests a dry day and those who are able to control their ball in the wind could well climb up the leaderboard. However, it should be noted that the past five winners have all been inside the top five at this stage of proceedings.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Daniel Gavins 50/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
Alex Noren and Robert MacIntyre are the most likely winners from here but we like the each way chances of Daniel Gavins at 50/1. Gavins was a winner on Tour in 2021 and posted a 6th place finish in this event last year. Five dropped shots in the space of three holes at Kingsbarns ruined his chances of winning last year but we're prepared to overlook that and hope he can learn from that experience. His last three rounds at St Andrews total sixteen under par, so if he is in contention tomorrow he will be fancied.
29 September 2022, 7:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Langasque |
-11 |
| Lacroix |
-10 |
| Rozner |
-9 |
| Moller |
-9 |
| Elvira |
-8 |
| Broberg |
-8 |
| Four Players Tied |
-7 |
Round 1 Summary
Perfect conditions saw players go low at Kingsbarns and St Andrews. Romain Langasque shot 28 on the front nine at St Andrews and equalled the low score there. Thomas Pieters (-7) shot the lowest score at Carnoustie.
Round 2 Weather
There is a weather warning in place with heavy rain and 40mph wind forecast. Play will start earlier tomorrow as a result, all players going off at 8:30am with a shotgun start.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is the 6/1 favourite after an opening 68 at Carnoustie. Having been four under par through his opening eight holes, he was unable to make any further progress and finds himself with a bit of work to do. Given the weather forecast we certainly won't be backing him at single figure odds.
Thomas Pieters is 7/1 2nd favourite but he hasn't entered our thoughts given the weather that awaits the players in round two. Strong wind and rain makes this event somewhat of a lottery and there's no need to take single figure odds at this stage.
Where is the value?
Those players who are proven performers in bad weather have to be under consideration. It's going to be tough for everyone tomorrow but those playing St Andrews are slightly favoured due to the exposed nature of Kingsbarns and the difficulty of Carnoustie.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Ewen Ferguson 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
- 0.5pts Each Way Matthew Southgate 200/1 @ LivescoreBet (1/5 1-4)
- 0.5pts Each Way Maximillian Kieffer 250/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
This group of players are all above average in poor weather conditions. Kieffer and Ferguson are recent winners on tour whilst Southgate came very close to winning here in 2019, where he played well at all three courses well during the week. With the forecast set to cause havoc, we wouldn't put you off backing more players at large prices - Mansell (80), Brun (200) and Morrison (300) all caught the eye but we will stick with the three above who we know are capable of handling the conditions.
