Event Info
Starts: 30th September
Course: Old Course, St Andrews, Scotland (Host Course)
Par: 72
Length: 7,318 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -12.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8pts
0.5pts EW Matthew Southgate 100/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Tapio Pulkkanen 100/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Jazz Janewattonanond 125/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Victor Dubuisson 125/1 @ Betfair (1-5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Callum Shinkwin 125/1 @ Betfair (1-5 1-7)
0.5pts EW David Law 150/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Romain Langasque 200/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Stephen Gallacher 250/1 @ Skybet (1-5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -4.5pts
30 September 2021(-3pts)
1pt EW Hao Tong Li 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Maverick Antcliff 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
2 October 2021(-1.5pts)
0.75pts EW Adri Arnaus 66/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-3)
Preview
Course Info
Type of Courses - Links
Old Course scoring average 2019 - 68.99
Carnoustie scoring average 2019 - 71.11
Kingsbarns scoring average 2019 - 69.53
Hosted Since -2001
Premium on - Links ability and ability to play in wind.
Weather Forecast
Showers expcted all week along with a consistent wind should keep the scoring down a touch.
Thurs - Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 9-15mph.
Fri - Light rain showers and a fresh breeze. Wind 12-20mph.
Sat - Light rain showers and a fresh breeze. Wind 15-18mph.
Sun - Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 13-17mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Three Ryder cup players in the field - Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood.
The first three days are rotated around three courses - St Andrews Old Course, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The cut is made on Saturday evening with top 60 and ties progressing to Sunday.
The tournament is played with amateurs, each professional forming a team with one amateur.
Carnoustie usually plays harder than the other two, so beware of that if in-play betting.
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Trends
Winning score
We have had winning scores of -15 to -24 in the last 5 years. With the current weather forecast we should expect somewhere in the late teens.
Winning Profile
Perez was a big outsider in 2019, ranking 183rd before his win. Bjerregard ranked 92nd and had won the Portugal Masters the year prior. Hatton was 29th and 54th prior to his wins but they were the first of his career. Don't be scared to pick out a young improving player without a win yet.
Course form
Victor Perez and Lucas Bjerregard had no previous event form but Hatton won back to back and Olesen had a previous 2nd place before his win. In general, links form is very important and certain players perform well consistently.
Incoming form
Perez arrived on the back of two missed cuts in 2019. Bjerregard had hot form of 20-2-6-9, as did Hatton in 2017, but Hatton was out of form for his win in 2016. We can conclude it is not necessary to come in hot but it helps.
Nationality
Two Danes and four Englishmen have won in the last 7 years. Overall, British players perform well in home conditions.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past three tournaments. We will use the last three winners and the 2019 runner-up to judge what they key to success is here.
SG: Off The Tee
Victor Perez ranked 1st in 2019 and runner-up Southgate was 6th. Bjerregard was 35th in 2018 and Hatton was 48th in 2017. Was the key stat in 2019 but not necessary to win as proved in 2017 and 2018.
SG: Approach
Perez was 3rd with Southgate 54th. Bjerregard was 10th in 2018 and Hatton was 16th in 2017. Solid approach play generally leads to success.
SG: Around The Greens
Perez and Southgate were both outside the top 90. Bjerregard was 7th in 2018 and Hatton was 19th in 2017. Not a key stat.
SG: Putting
Perez was 95th and Southgate was 5th. Bjerregard was 21st in 2018 and Hatton was 4th in 2017. As always, it helps but you can win without putting well here.
In Play
Tough Holes (Host Course - St Andrews)
Par 4 17th played most difficult in 2019 with an average of 4.33. Back nine plays tougher and holes 12-17 are a tough stretch.
Birdie Holes (Host Course - St Andrews)
The two par 5s (5th and 14th) play well under par, as did the short par 4's 9th and 18th in 2019.
Fast or Slow Start
Due to the course rotation, catch up is very possible here. With that said, the last four winners have been in the top 10 after round one.
In-play
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship In-Play Blog
2nd October 2021, 7.05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Willett | -14 |
| Bland | -11 |
| Hatton | -11 |
| Lowry | -11 |
| Murphy | -11 |
| Three Players Tied | -10 |
Daniel Gavins looked set to take a lead into the final round as he led by one playing the par 5 16th at Kingsbarns, but a bogey was followed by two doubles and he now trails by four!
It was Danny Willett who has benefited the most and he now has a 3 shot lead over four players. He is available at 6/4 to convert.
One of the chasing pack is Tyrrell Hatton who also made a mess of his back nine, playing it in three over par. He is 4/1 to come back from it tomorrow but we couldn't get involved at that price after his back nine today.
Shane Lowry is also one of the chasers and is also a 4/1 chance. The Irishman has a lot of momentum after back to back 67s and he would be preferred at the same price as Hatton.
Richard Bland has got himself into the mix to land his 2nd title of the year and can't be discounted but this is now Willet's to lose.
He has hardly contended since winning the BMW PGA in 2019 and it is hard to forget him outplaying Jon Rahm that day. With that in mind we expect him to close it out tomorrow but odds of 6/4 are not tempting us.
There is one each play we are keen to add.
Round 4 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Adri Arnaus 66/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-3)
Arnaus is five back of Willett which is probably too much to win but he has a realistic chance of a top 3 here, currently two shots behind 2nd place. He shot a 64 on the Old Course on Thursday which was by far his best performance of the week. He has an aggressive game which suits chasing so let's back him to shoot another low one.
1st October 2021, 7.05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hatton | -10 |
| Gavins | -9 |
| Willett | -8 |
| Li | -8 |
| Fleetwood | -7 |
| Winther | -7 |
Strong winds made scoring difficult for many of the players but that didn't stop Tyrrell Hatton shooting a round of 70 at Kingsbarns to lead by 1 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
A two time champion of this event, Hatton is a general 13/8 to convert from here and it's hard to make a strong case against him. He led through 36 holes when winning in 2017 and he holds a 5⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. The past four winners have been inside the top 5 at halfway and we aren't looking too far down the leaderboard given the quality near the top.
The one question mark in our mind with Hatton is how much energy will he have come Sunday. A long week in Wisconsin for the Ryder Cup followed by long rounds, in difficult conditions, with amateur partners, may well see him drained by the end of the week. Still, he's a worthy favourite in our eyes.
Tommy Fleetwood (7/1) and Danny Willett (10/1) are tucked in behind the leader and you'd expect both to challenge over the weekend.
The weather may well be the biggest hinderance to the leader, with the forecast suggesting players might be tested again tomorrow. Rain showers are possible throughout the day and the wind is likely to exceed 20mph at times.
Round 3 Bets
- No bet
With the leader set to play St Andrews tomorrow and odds on the chasers relatively short, we're happy to sit on our hands and see how the leaderboard looks tomorrow evening.
30th September 2021, 7.05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Arnaus | -8 |
| Colsaerts | -8 |
| Hatton | -8 |
| Li | -8 |
| Three Players Tied | -7 |
Four players are tied at the top but it is Tyrrell Hatton who is a much fancied 11/4 favourite after his sensational 64 at Carnoustie. Tommy Fleetwood is next in the betting at 9/2 after he too dismantled the tougher Carnoustie to go round in 66.
The weather forecast of winds of 20-20mph didn't materialise and TV coverage showed images of as nice a day at Carnoustie as you could ask for. The Ryder Cup duo took full advantage and you can back anyone else in the field at 20/1 or above now.
To make matters more confusing, winds of around 40mph are forecast for tomorrow but we've already been caught out by that so we can't place too much emphasis on it.
Our pre-event plays are off to a good start with 125/1 and 200/1 selections in the top 10 but we will add a couple of in-plays.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each way Hao Tong Li 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Hao Tong has had a disastrous 2021 but he rolled back the years today to share the lead. Hills price of 80/1 is completely disrespectful of a man who was 5th here in 2018 and is a two time winner on tour in Dubai and China. Li's last top 20 was also in Scotland so he has great memories to draw on this week.
- 0.5pts Each way Maverick Antcliff 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Maverick shot 68 at Carnoustie and will have a good chance to climb the leaderboard in the next couple of days. He was on our pre-event shortlist due to a quality 3rd place finish at a windy Irish Open last year. He has shown this year that he isn't far off a maiden win with a 2nd at the Canary Championship which is also a birdie fest.
