Sentry Tournament of Champions 2021

Event Info

Starts: 7th January 2021
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Par: 73
Length: 7,596 yards
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas

Results

Overall Profit/Loss: -6.12pts

Pre-Event Bets: -4.12pts

1.5pts EW Hideki Matsuyama (1/5 1-6) - 50/1 @ William Hill
1pt EW Daniel Berger (1/5 1-6) - 28/1 @ Betfair
1pt EW Collin Morikawa (1/5 1-6) - 28/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW Adam Scott (1/5 1-6) - 50/1 @ Betfred

0.5pts EW Way Martin Laird FRL (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Betfred
0.5pts EWRobert Streb FRL (1/4 1-5) - 80/1 @ Betfred

In-Play Bets: -2pts

8 January 2021 (-2 Pts)
0.5pts Each Way Robert Streb (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Nick Taylor (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 100/1 @ Skybet

9 January 2021 (-2 Pts)
1pt Brendon Todd Bogey Free Round - 7/1@ Skybet
1pt Martin Laird Bogey Free Round - 11/1@ Skybet

10 January 2021 (+2 Pts)
2pts Sungjae Im Top 5 Finish 2/1 @ 888 Sport

Course Notes 2021

Fall Momentum - You often hear many players speaking of "carrying momentum from the fall" into the new year. Harris English was the latest example with form figures of 5-6-28-6 to end the year. Niemann, Thomas and Palmer also finished 2020 strongly.

Hero World Challenge - It wasn't played in 2020 but previous years have shown players who challenge there in December tend to do well at Kapalua.

Bogey Free Rounds - When the wind is down, the course doesn't offer much defence. Winds were forecasted at 20mph but not enough to slow down the scoring until the last day. 67 or less is required to keep pace which puts emphasis on strong putting.

Player Notes 2021

Harris English - Q. You've only been here once before. Did you see a 65 coming when you woke up this morning? HARRIS ENGLISH: I mean, I've watched this tournament a lot. I mean, that's the, I guess the thing of coming here once and not being here for seven years is you really miss it and you really are gunning to get back here. So I watched this tournament every single year, so I kind of know how these shots play. I know how to play this course and I saw some low scores last year. I mean, you drive the ball well out here, you're going to have a lot of short irons, a lot of wedges, and you just got to get your putting dialled in.

Ryan Palmer - Q. This would seem to be a difficult golf course to feel comfortable on given all the possibilities and the winds that could pick up. But for the way you flight the golf ball and the creativity you need to play this golf course, do you feel comfortable here? RYAN PALMER: Yeah, there's a lot of shots I had to hit some flighted wedges and little choke-down shot I've got to hit and I'm able to flight the ball real easy. So winds were up and down but nothing really severe. But I was able to take control of my ball flight and I hit a lot of close ones on the back nine.

Nick Taylor - Q. Back to the golf course, we were expecting the winds to die down even more than they were today, how does it change how this golf course plays if there isn't the traditional 20 mile an hour, 30 mile an hour winds like were you talking about? NICK TAYLOR: Yeah, some holes will play longer, some will play shorter, it -- obviously, it makes it more of a second shot golf course, you got to attack from where you are. With most of the par-5s being gettable, 14's a hole you want to try to take advantage of as well. So it's a second shot golf course and then from there the greens are soft and they're not as speedy I think as they normally are, so you can make some putts and be a little more aggressive I think than normal.

Preview

Course Info

Course Designer: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw
Tournament played here since: 1999
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind for much of the course.
Fairways: Widest on tour, undulating, firm.
Greens: Extremely large, Bermuda
Par 5's: 5th, 9th, 15th, 18th.
Water Hazards: None
Premium on: Aggressive play, putting

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

The course played significantly tougher in 2020 following renovations in 2019. It played firmer with greens not as receptive and the wind was up. Winner Justin Thomas averaged 69.5 when the winners between 2008-2019 averaged 67.25.

This event has it's biggest field to date as champions in 2020 are joined by all players who qualified for the Tour Championship. The field this week is 42.

Of all those invited, only Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton have chosen not to play. Jim Herman has withdrawn due to a positive Covid-19 result.

A number of players have not competed since the US Masters in November. With that in mind, players might not be at their sharpest.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Trends

Winning Score

From 2015-2019, the winning score was low 20's, however in 2020 it was only -14. Allowing for the course changes and wind conditions, we can expect somewhere around -18 to get the job done.

Winners Price

Correlating Courses

Course Form

Thomas arrived in 2020 with a previous win and 3rd place at Kapalua. He has two wins along with Dustin Johnson. Schauffele and Reed both have a win and a 2nd. Due to the nature of the course, experience is an important factor. In fact, there hasn't been a debutant winner at Kapalua since 2008. Out of the 2020 top 5, only Niemann had not posted a previous top 5.

Recent Form

Although it is the first event of the year, 10 of the last 11 winners all arrived following a top 10 in their previous event, and the other was 14th. Look for someone who played well towards the end of the year.

Nationality

Americans have dominated here, the last 10 events have been won by them.

Stats Analysis

We are looking for a solid all round game to win here.

SG: Off The Tee

Solid driving is required as the past four winners have ranked no worse than 6th in this category. (It is notable that driving accuracy is not important here as some fairways are over 50 yards wide. Only one winner in the last 10 years has ranked inside the top 10 for driving accuracy.)

SG: Approach

Due to the size of the greens, proximity to hole is important. The past four winners have ranked 2nd, 4th, 7th and 7th in this category.

SG: Around The Green

The past four winners have ranked 8th, 4th, 4th and 13th in this category.

SG: Putting

The past four winners ranked 13th, 3rd, 6th and 4th in this category. (Note - The last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for putts per GIR). Due to the large greens, being able to manage the long distance putting is essential for success here.

In-Play

Tough Holes

Birdie Holes

Fast or Slow Start

Out of the top 6 in 2020, only Patrick Reed was not in the top 10 after round 1 and didn't break 70 in round one. The winner, Justin Thomas, sat 1 shot off the lead in 2nd place.

In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 6 shots back after round one. He was the only player in the top 6 after 72 holes who wasn't in the top 10 after round one. Schaueffele is also the only winner in the last 10 years who hasn't opened with a 69 or better.

In general, you want to be up with the pace early on, although there are exceptions.

Closing stretch

Fast or Slow Start

Out of the top 6 in 2020, only Patrick Reed was not in the top 10 after round 1 and didn't break 70 in round one. The winner, Justin Thomas, sat 1 shot off the lead in 2nd place.

In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 6 shots back after round one. He was the only player in the top 6 after 72 holes who wasn't in the top 10 after round one. Schaueffele is also the only winner in the last 10 years who hasn't opened with a 69 or better.

In general, you want to be up with the pace early on, although there are exceptions.

Pre-Event Bets

1.5pts Each Way Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)

It was a choice between Webb or Hideki for our headline tip and with doubt over Webb that decision has been made much easier. Hideki has an incredible record here, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 4th in his last three appearances. It's no wonder he is on record as saying he “loves” Kapalua. He finished the season well with a 2nd at Houston and a solid showing at the Masters so there's every reason to think he will be in good shape this week. Finally, since Hideki last played here, the greens have been replaced with TifEagle Bermuda and Hideki has an excellent record on that surface. It may be the added edge he needs to get the W.

1pt Each Way Daniel Berger 28/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)

A common theme with our four picks is the ability to start well after a break. Daniel emphatically ticks that box with a win in 2020 at the Charles Schwab, the first event back after play stopped for Covid. His second career win also came after a three week break. Finally, he had a total of seven top 10 finishes in 2020, five of those coming after a week off. He's undoubtedly a player who plays best when fresh. A couple of top 15 finishes in his two appearances here are also encouraging and he's a far better player than when he last teed it up. He missed out on the Masters in November, he'll have a point to prove.

1pt Each Way Collin Morikawa 28/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)

Last seen at the DP World Tour Championship in the middle of December, Collin has only been away from competitive action for just over three weeks. He's another player who goes well when fresh and we saw that last year here as he notched up a 7th place finish. Just to emphasise how well Collin does when fresh, he's had 13 top 10s in his short professional career and 10 of those have come after at least a week off. A fine ball striker, he'll relish the test this week.

0.5pts Each Way Adam Scott 50/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-6)

Adam turned 40 this past July and he's on record as stating he wants to maximise the next five years of his career to make sure he gets the most out of it. Evidence of that newfound determination is clear as he tees it up here for the first time since 2014. A similar result to that of 2014 (he finished 6th), would be enough to see him claim the place money this week. He's another player who goes well fresh, having won the Genesis Invitational on his first start of the year in 2020. Having contracted Covid, he only played six tournaments last year when play resumed and he'll be itching to get off to a fast start in 2021.

0.5pts Each Way Martin Laird FRL 80/1 @ Betfred (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Robert Streb FRL 90/1 @ Betfred (1/4 1-5)

Martin and Robert are out in the first two groups and should have the best of conditions to try and put a score on the board. The wind is forecast to be slightly stronger later in the day and whilst not a huge advantage for our pair, it's an advantage nonetheless. We saw Kevin Tway shoot the lowest round one score here in 2019 when out early, so there's history of early performers doing well. Both have top 10 finishes at Kapalua in the past and both have strong first round records here. The FRL each way bet came in for Robert Streb in his sole appearance here in 2014 and the FRL each way bet also came in for Martin Laird on two of his three prior appearances.

In-play

In-Play Blog

10 January 12.50

Player	Total
Palmer	-21
English	-21
Morikawa	-20
Berger	-18
Thomas	-17
Im	-17

Harris English did just about enough to hang on to his lead, with a clutch par save from 8ft on the last after finding the penalty area with his approach. He has been joined by Ryan Palmer, who shot a best round of the week 64. It could have been even lower, with three putts of 12ft or less missed on the back 9.

Palmer was also involved in a bit of controversy, when officials questioned whether he had intentionally improved his lie following a duffed chip on the 9th. The joint leader claimed he had kicked the divot in anger as the ball rolled back towards him, which was accepted by the officials and no penalty given. A lot of people on twitter felt he had breached the rules, and it will be interesting to see if this plays on his mind during round four.

It is quite ironic English and Palmer lead the Tournament of Champions as neither has won an individual PGA Tour event for several years. English last won in 2013 at the Mayakoba Classic, and Palmer back in 2010 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. For that reason, many will want to take them on today.

The only player within three shots is Collin Morikawa at one back. Collin was tipped up at 28/1 for our subscribers and he is the most likely winner in our eyes currently. The bookmakers are in agreement though, and there's not enough juice in the price at 11/4 for us to re-invest.

We also put up Daniel Berger pre-event at 28/1 which leaves us in an extremely good position heading into the final round. He won at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year and was selected mainly as he often plays well after a lengthy break. It is interesting he defeated Collin Morikawa in a playoff that day and they are paired together today.

Thomas and Im sit at -17 and have it all do. Four shots is a big deficit on this course, with the leaders expected to shoot at least -4, but it is possible. Xander came from 5 back to win in 2018 which will give hope to Cantlay, Horschel and Niemann who are at -16.

It is expected to be slightly windier today (max winds 20mph) but it won't be enough to prevent the low scoring continuing.

Sunday's Bet

2pts SUNGJAE IM Top 5 Finish 2/1 @ 888Sport

We were very close to putting Im up as a longshot each way bet at 25/1 but the place terms have put us off. With doubts surrounding the leading pair, he could be the man to make a move from off the pace but we're not sure his putting is good enough to go as low as may be needed to win. As shown at The Masters, he is generally very solid in contention with a 5 star Pressure Performance Ratio on our profile, and his win at Honda was from 3 back. He is smashing the driver this week and creating lots of chances. Currently tied 5th, he can impose himself on the leaders to comfortably land a top 5.

+ - Saturday Click to collapse

9 January 13.50

Player	Total
English	-14
Palmer	-12
Thomas	-12
Berger	-12

Justin Thomas reached the turn at -12 and it looked for all the world he was going to stretch away from the field, However, he stalled on the back nine and Harris English took advantage to create a two shot lead.

Thomas traded at 2.26 after 9 holes, but the driver soon deserted him. He found the thick cabbage on 12 and 13 off the tee and he was pretty lucky to find both and play them in one over par. He then failed to take advantage of the relatively easy 14th, 15th and 16th, but did manage to birdie the last to tie 2nd place. The decision to take an iron off the tee on the driveable 14th was a clear message that he didn't feel comfortable with the driver. He will have to improve in this area if he is to win.

English, on the other hand, posted a bogey free 67 and bookmakers now rate him marginal favourite at 9/2. He is without a win since 2013, but given his resurgence in 2020 it is surely a matter of time before he gets the job done. The strength of the chasing pack is enough to put us off him at the price though - SEVEN of the worlds top 10 sit within 4 shots.

Two of our pre-event selections are in great shape so we are happy to leave the outright market alone until tomorrow at least. The easy conditions have made it a bit of a shoot-out and you have to think the winner will be the player who has the hottest putter - which makes predicting the outcome a difficult task. If pushed, Sungjae Im looks a spot of value at 25/1, but we will instead concentrate on the bogey free market offered by Skybet.

The wind hasn't been a major factor which has led to the low scoring. The forecast today is for max winds of 14mph with a bit of rain, so the course should continue to play easy.

Saturday's Bets

1pt BRENDON TODD Bogey Free Round 7/1 @ Skybet
1pt MARTIN LAIRD Bogey Free Round 11/1 @ Skybet

Todd was bogey free yesterday and only made one bogey on Thursday. That came from a three putt and to demonstrate just how comfortable he's been tee to green, he's only had two par putts that have been outside 5ft (one of which he made and one of which he missed). He is an extremely steady type, which is ideal for this market. He ranked 23rd for bogey avoidance last season.

Martin is bogey free after 36 holes so this bet would have come up in the last two days. He has gone relatively unnoticed with two rounds of 69 but appears to have a game plan which is paying off. It is also worth mentioning that he has an excellent record at Kapalua in years gone by - it is a course that suits his game. There's every reason to think another bogey free round is possible at big odds.

+ - Friday Click to collapse

8 January 13.30

Player	Total
Thomas	-8
English	-8
Streb	-6
Reed	-6
Taylor	-6
Im	-6
Palmer	-6
Garcia	-6

Welcome to the first blog of 2021, we hope everyone had a great Christmas and New Year. We're underway in Maui with much fancied Justin Thomas and Harris English leading the way.

Both leaders needed a touch of luck yesterday, with Harris chipping in for eagle on 9 and Thomas making a miraculous 37ft par save on 13, when he thought he had lost his ball from the tee. Twelve players are within 3 shots and it is very much all to play for.

Subscribers to our pre-event selections got off to a fast start with 90/1 Robert Streb placing 3rd in the first round leader market. Three of our four outright selections currently sit t12th or better.

The weather forecast looks much the same as yesterday. The early starters will gain a slight advantage as the wind increases throughout the morning, peaking at 18mph around 2pm. The course is receptive with the greens running slow, so more low scoring will be necessary today.

We mentioned in the preview here that you want to be up with the pace after round one and emphasised the importance of being in the top 10 after 18 holes. There are always one or two exceptions but we want to stick with those who have made a fast start. We have selected two value plays who have the ability to place.

Friday's Bets

0.5pts Each Way ROBERT STREB 80/1 @Skybet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Robert was a winner for us in the FRL market and we believe he can keep the momentum going. A winner in his last start at the RSM Classic, he was in 3rd place after round one there and backed it up with a 63 to take the 36 hole lead. He noted in his post round interview that it takes him a couple of day to adjust to the greens here usually so we can maybe expect some improvement with the putter. Robert also finished 8th in his previous start at Kapalua so we know he likes the course. Please note he is available at 100/1 at other bookmakers but we have chosen Skybet for the 5 places on offer.

0.5pts Each Way NICK TAYLOR 100/1 @Skybet (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Nick won at Pebble Beach in 2020, defeating a chasing pack of Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. PB is a similar wind exposed coastal track (albeit shorter) so he's not afraid to win by the sea. He played some lovely stuff yesterday and we picked up some nice post round comments which give us hope. He mentioned he has been here since last Tuesday so has had a great preparation and feels comfortable here, "I'm used to the golf course and it just fits my eye". We have been burnt with Nick before but at the price he is worth a small play. Please note he is available at 125/1 at other bookmakers but we have chosen Skybet for the 5 places on offer.

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